17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow Signal; Omen Portends Late-Feb – Late-March ’25 Sell-off.
01/25/25 – Stock Market Omen: 4-Shadow Rally Reinforces February/March Challenges.
Stocks Fulfilling Projected 4-Shadow Signal Rallies; New Highs Likely in Key Indexes… Setting Stage for February Sell-off.
01/25/25 – “On January 10th & 13th, stock indexes generated a powerful combination of technical signals – reinforcing projections for an imminent multi-week low and the onset of a reactive rally. The most concerning of these signals was the 4-Shadow indicator that helped time a major equity market peak in late-2021/early-2022.
In this case, the 4-Shadow signal was triggered on January 13th – initiating three important expectations:
- An imminent multi-week low
- A reactive rally capable of (likely to) setting new highs
- A subsequent sell-off of a higher magnitude
The low took hold right on schedule.
The reactive rally is unfolding.
New highs are possible in specific indexes.
Other indicators are aligning for a future sell-off.
A recent Weekly Re-Lay Alert updated this analysis…
Now & Later
In many ways, that indicator possesses parallels to the weekly trend indicator with three critical (similar) facets providing important portents:
- The most immediate portent is that both signals warn of an imminent (but only initial) low
- The second, correlating similarity is that both signals project a reactive rally to follow.
- The third parallel is that both indicators warn of a future, more significant decline to take hold after that reactive rally has played out.
The first describes the ‘now’.
The second describes the ‘now/forward’.
And the third describes the ‘later’…
In the case of the DJIA, a rebound peak on January 21 – 24th would fulfill an ongoing ~7-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression (even though it has stretched a day beyond related daily cycles).
Meanwhile, the S+P Midcap is projecting a rebound peak on January 22/23rd that would fulfill a 58 – 59 day high (June 3) – high (July 31) – high (Sept 27) – high (Nov 25) – (high; Jan 22/23) Cycle Progression. That cycle was instrumental in projecting the October/November ’24 surge and a multi-month cycle peak for November 22/25th…
In both cases, these signals alert traders to the increased likelihood for an imminent multi-week low followed by a quick, sharp multi-week bounce. They also warn of a future decline after that intervening rebound has unfolded.
A past example of this indicator can be seen here:
Tech Tips: 4-Shadow Sell Signal
Far more important is what both those indicators foretell about the coming weeks & months!
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are reinforcing the precision of the 17-Year Cycle – forecast to time a MAJOR stock market peak in 4Q 2024 and an initial 20+% plunge into March/April ‘25. The proverbial ‘dominos’ are beginning to fall and should ultimate lead into a culminating sell-off in March/April ‘25.
The January 10/13th action powerfully corroborated that, creating a pair of prescient signals that time an initial low while projecting a far sharper decline after an intervening bounce. They include the ominous ‘4-Shadow’ signal. Leading indexes are likely setting secondary tops now but should see their greatest selling in March/April ’25.
How Do 4-Shadow Signals Confirm Nov 22/25th ’24 Cycle Peaks in Leading Indexes?
Why is March/April 2025 a Dangerous Time for Stocks?
How Would ~20% Plunge into late-March/early-April ’25 Set Stage for 2025/2026?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.