17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow Signal; Portends Sharp Decline Beginning in Late-February.
01/17/24 – 2025 Fulfillment of Weekly Cycles, Trends & 4-Shadow Signals. (LinkedIn)
01/17/25 – “Stock Indices entered this week anticipating a spike low and subsequent rebound. They initially fulfilled that outlook but have not yet signaled how long that should hold…
The S+P 500 spiked down to 5809/ESH on January 13th, fulfilling a myriad of minimum downside targets – in price and time.
The DJIA, S+P Midcap, Russell 2000 & DJTA also bottomed at their October ’24 lows – a pivotal level of initial 2 – 3 month support that could spur a brief bounce.
Those initial/minimum downside targets, however, are not the most significant aspect of the January 10th action and January 13th spike lows…
More important, and more revealing, is what took place on those two days with a pair of confirmation/ culmination signals being generated.
On January 10, the DJIA, S+P 500 & Russell 2000 (as well as the DJ Composite Average that combines Industrial, Transport & Utility Averages) turned their weekly trends down – a sign of culmination on a near-term basis and confirmation on a broader basis.
The weekly trend reversal indicator usually times an initial multi-week low in the week that follows that signal trigger. That reinforced several other timing indicators – all focused on the current week for the timing of an initial low and a (likely) reactive bounce.
From a broader wave perspective, there was an equally significant signal triggered on January 10/13.
That is when the DJIA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 exceeded the magnitudes of their late-July/early-August plunges – the largest declines of 2024.
As a result, those indexes (as well as the DJTA, which did the same thing in mid-December) triggered 4-Shadow Indicator signals on a 6 – 12-month basis.
In many ways, that indicator possesses parallels to the weekly trend indicator with three critical facets providing important portents:
- The most immediate portent is that both signals warn of an imminent (but only initial) low
- The second, correlating similarity is that both signals project a reactive rally to follow.
- The third parallel is that both indicators warn of a future, more significant decline to take hold after that reactive rally has played out…
January 13th Lows Fulfilled Weekly Cycles, Weekly Trend Indicators & 4-Shadow Indicators in Multiple Stock Indexes… Cast Shadows Ahead to February 2025!
Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.” TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK
Stock Indexes are reinforcing the uncanny precision of the 17-Year Cycle – forecast to time a MAJOR stock market peak in 4Q 2024 and an initial 20+% plunge into March/April ‘25. That top is VERY likely intact… at least in the S+P Midcap 400, Russell 2000 & DJTA Indexes. The proverbial ‘dominos’ are beginning to fall and should ultimate lead into a culminating sell-off in March/April ‘25.
The January 10/13th action powerfully corroborated that, creating a pair of prescient signals that time an initial low while projecting a far sharper decline after an intervening bounce. Weekly cycles focus on January 21 – 23rd and late-February as times for multi-week highs.
How Do 4-Shadow Signals Confirm Nov 22/25th ’24 Cycle Peaks in Leading Indexes?
Why is 1Q 2025 a Dangerous Time for Stocks?
How Would Drop into late-March/early-April ’25 Set Stage for 2025/2026?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.