17-Year Cycle Portends Stock Market & Crypto Bottom; Rally into 3Q ‘25!
04/09/25 – “The 17-Year Cycle”
INSIIDE Track has spent the last 12 – 15 months describing how the recurrence of an uncanny 17-Year Cycle would lead to a major stock market peak in 4Q 2024 (17 years from 4Q 2007 peak) and trigger a minimum 20 – 25% drop in the ensuing 6 – 12 months. (See https://www.
As 2025 began to unfold, the focus turned to late-March/early-April ’25 as the most likely time for the culmination of an initial 3 – 6 month plunge. In late-February – after the NQ-100 retested its peak and triggered corroborating sell signals – it became clear that stocks could plummet 20 – 25% by early-April:
To reiterate from the March 2025 INSIIDE Track (and many surrounding publications):
2-28-25 – “2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020)…
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two…
Déjà vu?
The 2020’s possess some eerie similarities to the 1920’s and the 1990’s. Of course, history never repeats… it only rhymes. No one should ever expect a carbon copy of what took place in the past.
In all three cases, specific sectors of the market became exorbitantly overvalued.
And, in each case, there were derivatives created to keep the party going and allow the most inexperienced and uninformed ‘investors’ to jump in near the top – exacerbating the impact of the ensuing decline…
The more things change, the more they stay the same!…
Stock Indices are steadily confirming the peaks set in many indexes in November ’24. That fulfilled the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks – setting multi-month highs in 4Q 2024 – that portends (at least) a 20 – 30% decline from those peaks…
The DJTA has gone through a textbook reversal sequence on many levels, including its weekly 21 MAC indicator. That index could easily drop back to ~13,500… where secondary lows were set in March – October ‘23, fulfilling a ~25% decline… Monthly HLS levels and the monthly 21 Low MAC & 21 High MARC show that could occur as soon as March/April 2025.
The NQ-100, which retested its high and fulfilled its weekly trend pattern, signaled a peak on February 18/ 19th and could see a multi-month drop to ~17,800/NQ – the point at which a 20% decline would reach fruition…
The NQ-100 is another index where the monthly 21 Low MAC & monthly HLS levels identify March/April ‘25 as an ideal time for that target/support to be reached and a multi-month low to take hold.” — March ’25 (2/28/25) INSIIDE Track
Almost every index continued to reinforce projections for 20 – 25% declines in the first half of 2025 with the overwhelming majority showing that objective would likely be met by/in early-April 2025.
So, what transpired?
Stock Indices have precisely fulfilled these projections, plunging in spectacular fashion while reinforcing the impact of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles (in which a majority of a price move occurs at the end of a cycle in a blow-off type decline).
Since the start of 2025, the focus has been on March/April – and more specifically on late-March/ early-April ’25 – as the most likely time for the culmination of initial multi-month plunges linked to that uncanny recurring 17-Year Cycle.
As described in February & March, stocks had a high potential to fulfill (minimum) 17-Year Cycle projections – for 20 – 25% declines – by/in April ’25 when an initial bottom was/is most likely.
Daily, weekly & inter-month cycles identified April 3rd/4th/7th as the 3-day period with the greatest synergy of cycles for a multi-week bottom.
The DJTA, which had been described as being in a more bearish setup (and which has never returned to the high it set in Nov 2021), was projected to see a larger decline and reached the 30% decline threshold in sync with those cycle lows.
On an arithmetic basis, the DJTA generated the largest 3 – 6 month decline in its history. Its ~5,300/ DJTA point plunge is bigger than the 2022 plunge… bigger than the 2020 plunge… and bigger than the late-2018 plunge. As stated on April 7th, it had reached the point where a significant low and rebound could/should take hold.
The S+P Midcap 400 has been a leading index in this sell-off and attacked its third downside range target – the target for 2Q 2025 – near 2575/IDX.
It was forecast to drop right to its initial target (~3125/IDX) in late-2024 and to its primary 3 – 6 month downside range target (~2850/IDX) in mid-March. After fulfilling both of those downside range targets, the IDX rallied into March 25th – when it also turned lower as the new Natural Year began.
That projected a retest of its ~2850/IDX range support and – whenever that was ultimately broken – a plunge to the next range target at ~2575/IDX.
The S+P Midcap attacked that objective (2575/IDX) on April 7th, reinforcing the potential for a significant bottom on April 3 – 7th. Most indexes set their intraday lows on April 7th after fulfilling a myriad of downside objectives.
On a monthly chart basis, all the indexes had traced out the ideal sequence for an impending multi-month low with their April 3/4th plunges…
When a market is heading into a low (daily, wkly or monthly), it will usually accelerate to a HLS level, hit and hold that level on the close of that period, and then spike down to the LLS in the subsequent period – when a more significant low is most likely.
On a monthly basis, almost every major index accomplished that after plunging to monthly HLS levels in March ’25 – like 19,039/NQM – and setting the stage for a drop to the monthly LLS in April, when a multi-month bottom would be most likely.
That LLS level came into play at 38,222/DJIA, 5165/ESM, 17,267/NQM, 2637.25/IDX, 1824/QRM & 12,750.43/DJTA.
All of these were tested on April 4th – in the midst of the ideal time for an early-April low – setting the stage for a final spike low on April 7th.
That was corroborated by a myriad of timing indicators focused on April 3 – 7th, including a DJIA ~9-week/~2-month low-high-high-high-high-high-
In the case of the S+P 500, that ~8-month cycle (the same cycle that timed a series of highs in the S+P Midcap, culminating on Nov 22/25, ’24 and projecting this 4 – 5-month plunge) split into a symmetrical ~4-month/123d low (Aug 5) – high (Dec 6) – (low; April 4/7th) cycle. Several other related cycles concurred.
By setting new intra-year lows during the month of April, stocks have also fulfilled the potential to reinforce future cycles – converging in July 2025.
A low on April 3rd/4th/7th would perpetuate a geometric ~1-month/~90-degree cycle that already timed lows in the first 3 – 5 trading days of August, Sept, Oct & Nov ’24 (with a contrasting high set in early-Dec ’24) and Feb ’25.
Stocks are validating the potential for a very significant bottom on April 3 – 7th after fulfilling all those downside targets. On a near-term basis, they are likely to rebound to their late-March ‘25 highs – 4th wave of lesser degree resistance in most of them.
The following are just a few of the reasons why INSIIDE Track publications have continued to project a major stock market top in 4Q 2024 and a large (20 – 25% minimum) plunge in 2025:
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major plunge in stocks (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020) and had/has been projected to see (at least) a 20 – 25% drop in stock prices.
2025/2026 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last significant recession in the US… and has been projected (since 2023) to time the next major recession – making this cycle accurate 13 of the 14 times it has recurred since the founding of America (1940/1941 was the only exception).
2025/26 has been forecast, for the past two years, to trigger the second major wave of stagflation in the US (linked to diverse cycles) – a topic that is suddenly being discussed in economic circles (cycles and technical analysis usually identify these things long before the fundamentals become obvious).
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s. 2025 was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market and the onset of sharp sell-offs.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000.
2025 was/is the time for culmination of the latest bull market and has been forecast to include at least a 20 – 25% plunge in equity prices – likely culminating (initially) in late-March/early-April ‘25.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
Along with other analogues, that has been showing that 25 – 50% declines are likely in 2025… possibly stretching into 2026.
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major bottom in the US Dollar Index and has been forecast to time a sharp drop in the Dollar – leading into a late-2025 bottom.
That projected Dollar weakness could be both a cause and a consequence of declining stock prices, further exacerbating all the other negative cycles weighing on stock indexes to begin this period.
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two…
Bitcoin & Ether remain in a multi-month corrective phase but Bitcoin has held relatively steady in the face of plummeting stocks, a sign of some underlying resilience that could lead to a stronger rally (possibly to ~93,00 – ~95,000/BT) in the coming week(s).
That is also due to the fact Bitcoin has not been able to turn its weekly trend down (weekly close below 78,400/BTC needed) and neutralized its monthly uptrend for the 2nd time on March 31st (identifying April ’25 as the most likely time for a spike low & reversal higher).
By spiking to a new low, Bitcoin fulfilled its negative daily trend pattern and is now in the ideal situation to set a multi-week bottom. Initially, that could spur a rally into April 18/21st if related short-term signals are triggered. ~91,700 – ~92,600/BTC is the initial upside target for the coming week(s).
Gold & Silver sold off with Silver finally fulfilling what it signaled in Dec ’24…
At the time, Silver turned its weekly trend down after Gold had failed to do the same thing. That began a multi-month period of divergence – on different levels – with Gold projecting a surge to new highs in 1Q ’25 as Silver portended ongoing congestion and a rally to a lower high.
Silver’s wave structure identified the post-Dec rally as a likely ‘B’ wave advance that would ultimately give way to a ‘C’ wave decline with a downside target below the mid-Dec ’24 low.
Silver adhered to that outlook and was only able to twice neutralize its weekly downtrend during the subsequent 1Q ’25 rally… reinforcing the likelihood for a drop below its mid-Dec ’24 low.
Meanwhile, Gold was tracing out a 5-wave advance from its mid-November low – a low that fulfilled multiple downside objectives including the matching of its largest previous decline (~260.0/GC) and ushered in the latest surge.
Since late-February, Gold has also traced out a 5-wave advance as part of that larger-magnitude 5th wave (of the 5-wave advance from Nov ’24).
Silver peaked in lockstep with its weekly trend pattern and reversed lower during the week after its weekly 21 MAC had turned down (late-March).
It has already fulfilled the minimum downside target for this ‘C’ wave decline – dropping below the mid-Dec low while matching the magnitude of its ‘A’ wave decline (Oct – Dec ’24 decline).
Silver was expected to find its most significant support near 27.60/SIK – 4th wave of lesser degree support – and likely set a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottom near that level. That is also the downside target that has been described since the late-October ’24 peak.
Silver reached 27.54/SIK on April 7th – fulfilling these major downside targets – and now has a very good chance of beginning a new wave higher from that support.
From a timing perspective, Silver fulfilled the outlook to mirror the duration of its largest previous decline (22 – 23 weeks) and set the stage for a major low in April 2025 – 180 degrees from its Oct ’24 peak and ~360 degrees prior to major cycles that peak in ~April 2026.“
Bitcoin is showing additional signs of bottoming after perfectly fulfilling analysis for an attack of ~74,500/BT before a multi-month bottom became very likely (74,496/BT was April 7th low). That coincided with what has been forecast to be a final stock market spike low as powerful cycles bottom and portend new multi-month rallies in both equities & cryptos.
Stocks & cryptos are fulfilling analysis for a decisive low to be set during the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year – between March 20 – April 19, ’25 – another factor that portends a subsequent 3 – 6 month advance. That projects focus to future Bitcoin cycle highs – in July & 4Q 2025. July ’25 is the next phase of an uncanny 16-month Cycle Progression that portends a multi-month peak at that time. It is also the next phase of corroborating ~6-month & ~11-month Cycle Progressions.
Bitcoin’s weekly & monthly trends argue for a rally to new all-time highs by/in 4Q ’25. (Other cryptos – like Litecoin, Doge & Solana turned their monthly trends down, so new highs are not likely.) See the November ’24 issue of The Bridge for additional analysis and illustrations of this 16-month cycle and its focus on July 2025…
The Bridge – “Currency War: Rock, Paper, Scissors II”
Will Bitcoin Reach New All-Time Highs by/in July ‘25?
How are Stock Index Monthly Trends Corroborating?
What Impact Should 17-Year Cycle Have on Both?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.