40YC Portends Seismic Shift in China/US Relations; Yuan Poised for New Decline.
40YC Portends Seismic Shift in China/US Relations; Yuan Poised for New Decline.
04/30/18 INSIIDE Track – “As more time elapses, and more separation from the 2016 Election is gained, it becomes clearer and clearer that a seismic shift really did take hold at that time.
For the past decade, I have described the impact of the 40-Year Cycle and why it was auguring serious challenges for the late-2010’s.
Much of that discussion had to do with the 40-Year Cycle’s impact on America and why 2016 should time a new ‘revolution’ in American politics. It had timed the onset of the inaugural Revolution in 1776. Following that, related revolutions (often revolving around banking & currency control – including the role of precious metals) were triggered surrounding 1816 (2nd Bank of U.S), 1856 (suspension of gold & silver payment), 1896 (election focused on re-establishing the Gold Standard), 1936 (affirmation of paper/fiat Dollar supremacy) & 1976 (global divorce from gold via Jamaica Accord).
Those six ‘shifts’ coincided with and/or triggered market panics & crashes, inflationary or deflationary spirals, war, food crises and geopolitical upheaval.
In each case, the preceding years set the stage (e.g. 1773 – 1775 set stage for 1776) and the ensuing years witnessed the more overt manifestations of those shifts (e.g. 1777 – 1781).
Throughout the past decade, 2018 – 2021 has been forecast to time a tumultuous period of conflict and unity – ushering in new global orders on multiple scales. (As noted many times before, the periods of greatest conflict are often the periods of strongest unifications – even though it usually involves two opposing unions.)
Part of that analysis has focused on the cyclic likelihood for a revamped European Union, taking hold in 2018 – 2021. That revamp could be primarily economic & monetary or political & military.
Multiple referendums validated that analysis during the 2013 – 2017 initial phase, with Brexit being the most notable. That was followed by Catalonia’s vote for separation from Spain – in perfect sync with Catalonia’s own 40-Year Cycle dating back to 1137 & 1258 – a conflict that is still unfolding. (The culmination of Catalonia’s 40-Year Cycle arrives in 2019 – linked to its autonomy in Sept. 1979 and its suppression under Franco’s rule, beginning in 1939.)
China
Another part of that focus has been on China, a nation that is becoming a key player in currency and interest rate markets (holding a large amount of US Treasuries) and whose 40-Year Cycle focuses on 2018 – 2021, as well. 1978/1979 began a seismic shift in China’s relationship with the West – politically and economically.
Sept. 1976 saw the death of Mao Zedong and much of his Marxist/Leninist economic policies. In late-1978, Deng Xiaoping began to rule and initiated massive economic reforms that are still playing out. (His consolidation of power is often identified as Dec. 1978.) With careful political maneuvering, he forced the ouster of key leaders in 1980 & 1981, removing critical impediments to his plans.
Jan. 1, 1979 timed America’s recognition of China (People’s Republic of China; in lieu of Taiwan – the Republic of China) and was followed by Xiaoping’s late-Jan./early-Feb. 1979 visit to the U.S.
For all intents and purposes, 1979 ushered in China’s economic rise to power. As that rise took hold, China ultimately experienced ~three decades of 9+% average growth (GDP). 1979 is also when full US/China relations were established.
A complete 40-Year Cycle from those events reaches fruition in late-2018 (stretching into 2021). Similar to 1978, when Xiaoping began to consolidate power, 2018 is when Xi Jinping accomplished the same thing – assuring his ‘reign for life’. 2018 – 2021 could be when China overtakes the West.
As is often the case, the midpoint of that 40-Year Cycle corroborated this progression of events. 2000 is when China was granted permanent normal relations and then Most Favored Nation trade status by the U.S.. In 2001, China was granted admission into the World Trade Organization. 2019 – 2021 is another 20 years in the future.
2018 – 2021 is also the latest phase of the 40-Year Cycle that has impacted China’s conflict with key nations, including Britain, the US & Japan as well as with her own citizens (civil wars)… and dates back hundreds of years:
Late-1810’s – America joins Opium Trade in China. Key graphs of Opium imports time the transition/acceleration points to the 1650’s, 1770’s & 1810’s – all phases of this same 40-Year Cycle. The 40-Year period – encompassing the late-1810’s to the late-1850’s – timed the tipping point in this trade, yielding two major Opium Wars.
The Second Opium War lasted from 1857 – 1860 (40 years after this initial, late-1810’s phase)
Late-1850’s – The Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864) was a massive civil war, considered bloodiest civil war ever with diverse estimates of 20 – 70 million deaths. It overlapped the Second Opium War (1857 – 1860).
Late-1890’s – Boxer Rebellion (1899 – 1901; attempt to purge China of all foreigners)
Late-1930’s – 2nd Sino-Japan War (1937 – 1945).
Late-1970’s – 1978 – 1982 = major shift in China’s economic & geopolitical approach (overlapping Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979).
Late-2010’s – 2017 – 2021 = 40, 80, 120 & 160 years from Major China-involved wars… as well as 200, 240 & 360 years from underlying triggers and the original Sino-Russia conflicts starting in 1650’s.
The 40-Year Cycle is ubiquitous in China’s military & geopolitical evolution and has also had a dramatic impact on their trade policy. In each 40-Year Cycle, the years of ‘7’ – ‘0’ include some or all of the conflicts described. 2017 – 2020 is the latest phase.”
Also, see http://40yearcycle.com/uncategorized/china-russia-cycles-collide/.
China cycles continue to focus on a dramatic paradigm shift forecast to take hold in 2018 – 2021. That follows the culmination (and transition) of longer-term cycles that reached a crescendo in 2013 – 2017. And, it portends intensifying economic and trade battles (and possibly military ones) as this cycle plays out. Watch mid-2019 – mid-2020!
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.