Agricultural Cycles Project Volatile Multi-Year Period; CA Drought/Deluge Cycles (2021/2022) Concur!
10-30-19 – This 2015 analysis (see below) examined an uncanny 40-Year Cycle and overriding 80-Year Cycle – both of which argued for dramatic shifts for California, beginning in 2016/2017 – 2021 (and potentially lasting for decades).
As detailed then, these cycles timed the westward movement of America’s agriculture (and culture) in 80-year intervals. However, a Perfect Storm of challenges was developing and could see the unwinding of that western movement in the years and decades that follow (2016 – 2021 and late-2010’s into 2020’s & 2030’s).
The first challenge was drought – similar to what drove many farmers west in the 1940’s after the Dust Bowl of the late-’30’s. A 40-Year Cycle of drought – beginning in 1976/1977 & accelerating into 2016/2017 laid the foundation – projected to trigger an extremely vulnerable 3 – 5 year period (into 2021).
Exacerbating that were wildfires, intensifying during the years leading into late-2015 and likely to continue. Finally, there was the potential for erosion of topsoil in the years that follow a decade of drought and wildfires. 2016 gave a small taste of that potential with El Nino-related flooding. Since then, dozens of catastrophic wildfires have plagued the state – all leading to a subtle (negative) shift in migration patterns in 2017/2018.
Could that shift accelerate in the 2020’s?
California Dreamin’… and ‘Decentralization’? [Excerpt from Dec ’15 INSIIDE Track]
11-28-15 – Another – more common – example has to do with drought and/or excessive heat… recent U.S. examples being in 1936–1939 (Dust Bowl) and 1976–1977 (California Drought)… However, I want to briefly address another evolving problem that is like so many of the others – manageable for years & years, perhaps decades & decades… until it reaches a tipping point. This one has to do with the foundation of all farming (except hydroponic): DIRT. More specifically, it has to do with topsoil.
While most observers would speculate that nothing like the Dust Bowl (most damaging in 1936–1941 – 80 years ago) could occur again, it is important to remember that history resembles itself (NOT repeats itself). During the droughts & crop shortages of the 1850’s & 1890’s, it was observed that the erosion of topsoil in the Midwest/Upper Plains (US) was a developing problem. It reached its ‘tipping point’ in the late-1930’s – re-affirming the 40-Year Cycle.
Let’s review the progression of agriculture in the U.S.A.:
- ~80-Year Cycle from 1770’s to 1850’s – when crop raising evolved to the Midwest US.
- ~80-Year Cycle from 1850’s to 1930’s – when heartland of US became breadbasket of US.
- ~80-Year Cycle from 1930’s to 2010’s – when Dust Bowl prompted mass migration to California and resulted in California becoming the country’s – and sometimes the globe’s – leader in food production. (94% of America’s broccoli, 84% of our peaches, 94% of plums and majority of lettuce, carrots & celery come from California.)
- 40-Year Cycle from 1976/1977 to 2016/2017 – linking California’s worst drought to its worsening drought… and ushering in a 3–5 year period of increased vulnerability.
However, after 5 years of nearly unprecedented drought & resulting wildfires, what if El Nino brings torrential rains – as it has the distinct possibility to do – and washes away massive amounts of critical topsoil that has little vegetation protecting & congealing that soil?
Would that resemble the 80-year sequence witnessed in the Plains – from the 1850’s to the 1930’s?!
Could the late-2010’s spur a new cycle in which the agricultural industry is forced to de-centralize?
As thinkprogress.org puts it, California produces 2/3 of America’s produce (as well as 80% of the world’s almonds & 94% of canning tomatoes) but much of that – like lettuce, celery, carrots & tomatoes – could be grown in many other locations. And, until the middle half of the US became a giant monoculture, hundreds of small farms used to do just that.
But, like all good government-mandated food policies, the US Farm Bill has created bigger problems by prohibiting most of the massive corn & soybean farmers from growing other crops… or forfeit their subsidies… But, we haven’t (YET) reached the tipping point… it usually takes multiple challenges to finally trigger a crisis. We already have years of California drought… But, what could push it over the edge? IT — End 11/28/15 analysis.”
The culmination of a 40-Year Cycle of Drought & 80-Year Cycle of Agriculture (2016 – 2021) projects an increasingly challenging period for crops and food prices leading into 2022 and the ensuing shift to Deluge Cycles (in 2022 and beyond), described in 2015 – 2019. (See discussions in 2015 – 2017 regarding global and US (CA) potential for a final warmup AND the culmination of Drought Cycles in 2016 – 2021, projected to give way to seismic shifts in 2022 – 2024. 2016/2017 provided a precursor.)
~11-Year, ~40-Year & ~80-Year Cycles all converge in 2021/2022 and pinpoint the expected transition of natural, geopolitical and market cycles, at the same time many food cycles also culminate.
That is also when Corn has a corroborating 3-year low (July 2007) – low (Jun 2010) – high (July 2013) – high (June 2016) – high (May/Jun 2019) – high (May/June 2022) Cycle Progression – projecting a 1 – 2 year peak – that was reinforced by a 6 – 12 month peak in May/June 2019.
Wheat has a ~6-year low (2004) – low (2010) – low (2016) – high (2022) Cycle Progression that is being reinforced by a ~33-month low (3Q 2016) – low (2Q 2019) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression.
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.