Arab Spring Precisely Fulfilling Middle East Cycles

01/31/11 INSIIDE Track: “Outlook 2011… Date With Destiny II

            01–31-11 – Sometimes it takes a while for validation to occur.  Other times, it comes right away.  With respect to projections for 2011 being a Date with Destiny – a watershed year with surprising changes expected throughout the Middle East and around the globe – initial corroboration appeared quickly…From a geopolitical perspective, there were expected to be various triggers to usher in a multi-year transition period. One of those appears to be coming to fruition already…

Out with the Old,

This heading (originally used last month) could not have been more appropriate, considering the sentiment of many Egyptians – expressed vividly in recent days.  They have had their fill of Mubarak and are looking for something new.

And, this is one of those times when the Law of Unintended Consequences could play such a pivotal role…

As it stands, Egypt could go down two very conflicting paths in the coming months or years (assuming that ‘staying the course’ is not a feasible option).  Either the Muslim Brotherhood hijacks these demonstrations and turns them into something they are not… OR… Egypt is the next Middle East nation to take a stab at some form of Western-style democracy.

Mohammed El Baradei could be a key figure in moving Egypt in that direction.  Ironically, there was a US President in the past decade who talked about the hopes for a domino effect in the Middle East if a nation like Iraq was able to launch some form of a representative form of government.

            Could Egypt soon validate his claims?

And, if Egypt goes down that route, who will be next?  The idea of overthrowing a totalitarian regime would become an intoxicating idea… particularly to a young populace in any of several nations whose real unemployment is 20+%…

Decennial Anniversaries II

2011 is 30 years from the ascension of Hosni Mubarak (and the assassination of Anwar Sadat) as well as the attack on the Osirak Nuclear Plant in Iraq.  It is also 30 years from the Algiers Accord and subsequent release of the hostages at the American Embassy in Iran.   It is the 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60 & 70 year anniversary of major events that tie together the US & the Middle East… and that deal with Arab Unity.

This is one reason why 2011 ushers in the next phase of this global transition.  It was forecast to begin in 2007/2008 (Jewish Year of 5768).  That is precisely when the US & Western economies peaked and began their meltdown.

The preceding economic expansion had been the remaining glue, struggling to hold together a fragile, global house of cards.  The collapse of 2007–2009 may look like it is over in the US (depending on who you listen to and what numbers you believe) but it is just beginning to reverberate throughout the globe.

Riots in Tunisia, then Egypt & Yemen – created by massive unemployment (20% or greater) and the government cutting of diverse subsidies – are similar to the explosion of drug-related killings in Mexico in recent years.  It is two sides of the same coin… with more upheaval likely.  Experts are pointing to other nations – like Jordan – to monitor in the near future.

If/when these protests get the desired result (overthrow of government), the problems will all remain and could lead to further unraveling of societal cohesion.  In almost every case when this occurs, the society creates an external enemy – on which to vent their anger & frustration…”