August ’19 Projected Stock Plunge III: 4-Year Cycle Projects Aug. ’15 Type of Sell-off! VIX is Pinpointing Time for Panic Selling.
07/31/19 INSIIDE Track – “Reinforcing this, a unique 4-Year Cycle portends the same thing, with the markets in 2019 acting similar to how they did in 2015 (right down to the leading role of Chinese and European stocks). 2011 has a similar 3Q sell-off, but that one lasted into Oct. ‘11.
So, from this 4-Year Cycle’s perspective, a bottom could be seen anywhere from late-Aug. to early-Oct. 2019. Based on weekly and daily cycles, stocks could see an initial sell-off into late-Aug. ‘19 and then a second sell-off in Sept. ‘19. There is one other indicator/index that could be honing this 1 – 3 month outlook…
The VIX (Volatility) Index is pointing to xxxx ‘19 as a more likely time for a spike high. Often, those spike highs in the VIX come on a culminating sell-off (like in late-Dec. ‘18) in stocks. So, that factor favors a low – and a more dramatic sell-off – waiting until xxxx. Other indicators need to clarify.
The Price Filter
…Today’s reversal lower was enough to prevent the DJIA, the NQU, the DJTA, the Russell 2000, and the NYA from turning their monthly trends up… this action ushers in a 1 – 3 month period when a reactive sell-off becomes more likely.
And, from a broader perspective, it reinforces expectations for 2018 – 2019 to be a period of volatile swings within a wide trading range – with competing multi-month advances and declines keeping the market moving in a generally-sideways pattern.
Today’s action had some other interesting results. The NYA (NYSE Index) is validating its latest 3 – 5 day sell signal – from July 26/29 – dropping below its July 22 low. It is doing that as the DJIA is attacking its weekly HLS (extreme weekly downside target) – at 26,726 and turning its daily trend down.
The S+P needs to drop to xxxx/ESU to do the same thing and is expected to do that before an initial (short-term) low is able to take hold. Other factors corroborate this and pinpoint…[reserved for subscribers]
DJ Industrials reinforce projected sell-off from mid-July into late-Aug. Monthly trend signals could elevate that decline. 40-Year Cycle AND 4-Year Cycle project sharp drop in Aug. ‘19… with a Aug. ’15-style sell-off increasingly more likely! Why could August ’19 look like Aug. ‘15? What does this reveal about Sept. – Dec. 2019?? And 2020???
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.