August ’19 Projected Stock Plunge V: China Tensions Corroborate July ’19 Sell Signals! Brief Bounce Likely… Before Second Plunge!! How Low Could Stocks Go??
08/05/19 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update – “Stock Indices are powerfully confirming ongoing analysis for a multi-week sell-off from mid-to-late-July into late-August, potentially mimicking what was seen in August 2015 (and also forecast to be similar to late-2018).
As described in multiple Weekly Re-Lay updates in late-July, a key corroborating factor was China’s stock indexes with the Shanghai Composite leading US equities lower and providing another parallel to 2015 when a Chinese stock meltdown ultimately triggered a global stock sell-off. The latest tariff news powerfully corroborated that connection and expectations for an Aug. ’19 plunge in stocks.
The DJIA & DJTA peaked in mid-July, fulfilling multiple timing indicators and setting the stage for an August ’19 sell-off. (Proxy stocks like NFLX had already triggered revealing sell signals, again acting as the proverbial canary in the coal mine – warning of impending trouble in the overall market… right after perpetuating a 9-week/~2-month low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in early-July.)
Then the NYSE Index honed the timing for a sell-off, pinpointing July 29 as the likely time for a new decline to take hold – in all the indexes. The NYSE signaled a 3 – 5 day decline but weekly & monthly cycles spurred expectations for that to morph into something larger – as part of this July/Aug. sell-off. The action of Aug. 2 corroborated that and increased the likelihood for a sharp sell-off, which has been seen today. This all powerfully validates the 1 – 2 month outlook for this time frame. As stressed for the past month…
Weekly & monthly index cycles project a multi-month low in late-Aug. (possibly Sept. ’19 in some indexes) with the majority of selling expected in the weeks immediately preceding that cycle low (similar to Dec. ’18 and related to the sell-off of Aug. 2015). In the DJIA, that would also fulfill an 11 – 12 week high (Oct. ’18) – low (Dec ’18) – low (Mar ’19) – low (Jun ’19) – (low; Aug 19 – 30) Cycle Progression.
On a short-term basis, the coming days could produce the opposite of what unfolded in mid-July…
That pattern pinpoints today or tomorrow (Aug. 5 or 6) as the likely time for that initial blow-off low now that equities have confirmed a 2 – 4 week peak and seen a sharp downdraft. The focus, however, should remain on the evolving sell-off with stocks likely to see another decline after a brief, 1 – 2 or 1 – 3-day bounce unfolds. The weekly trends cannot turn down until Aug. 16, at the earliest, reinforcing projections for a substantial drop from mid-July into Aug. [reserved for subscribers]”
Stock markets increasing likelihood for sharp sell-offs in Aug. 2019. Brief bounce, after projected Aug. 5/6 low takes hold, should usher in second plunge. 40-Year Cycle AND 4-Year Cycle project Aug. ’15-style sell-off. What does this reveal about Sept. – Dec. 2019?? And 2020???
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.