August ’19 Projected Stock Plunge VI: Second Plunge Most Likely After Aug. 12 (Watch 26,440/DJIA for Rebound Peak)… What are Primary Downside Targets?
08/07/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – August Danger Zone Intensifies: “Stock Indices (as well as precious metals, interest rates, etc.) have powerfully confirmed cycles of tumult focused on late-July – late-Aug. ‘19. Tragically, so have multiple national social events – perpetrated by what are continually described as unstable individuals.
Whatever the connection (and that could be endlessly debated), there is little doubt that the markets are also in the midst of a very unstable period (all of it arriving at the tail-end of an unstable geophysical period). On a short-term basis, the latest phase of that instability was pinpointed by technical action in the NYSE Index and corroborated my most other indices.
Daily cycle highs (July 24 – 26) projected a divergent peak with the NYA projecting a new 3 – 5 day sell-off beginning on July 29 – a type of ‘3’ wave lower after it had already traced out a ‘1’ wave decline and ‘2’ wave bounce on the daily charts.
All of the indexes dropped from July 29 into Aug. 2, plunging to their weekly HLS levels while turning the daily trends down. That was the textbook sequence of events for a developing, intermediate peak – that corroborated other warning signs arising in mid-to-late-July. It began with the July 11/12 sell signal in NFLX – reprising its role as ‘canary in the coal mine’.
As described last weekend, the action of Aug. 2 increased the likelihood for a sharp sell-off, which was seen on Monday. The action of Aug. 2 also projected, based on the daily trend signals, an initial low for Aug. 5 or 6– within 1 – 2 days of that trend signal.
The sharp sell-off and initial lows were seen on August 5 – fulfilling the July 29 daily trend sell signals and completing a sharp, 5 trading-day decline. The S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 spiked to their respective weekly downside extreme targets (HLS levels at 2797/ESU & 7249/NQU) and have since bounced.
That is also in sync with typical intra-month and month-opening action, in which daily turning points are often seen on the 3rd or 4th trading day of the new month – often before an intra-month trend signal can be generated.
This validates expectations for a quick, sharp 1 – 3 day rally from there. Based on that pattern and daily cycles, a short-term high was/is most likely on Aug. 7/8, the convergence of a 10 – 12 (calendar) day cycle in the S+P, a 14 – 15 day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the NQ-100 and a 7 – 8 day low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the DJIA.
The NYSE Composite Index (NYA), which led this latest sell-off, is slightly different with a 12 – 14 day high-high-high-high Cycle Progression pinpointing Aug. 9 or 12 for a secondary peak. (The fact the DJIA, DJTA & NYA retested their lows today also resets the potential for a 2 – 3 day bounce.)…
One is the potential for a test of a daily LHR leading into a peak. The DJIA has the best chance of achieving this tomorrow (if it is going to do it that quickly), with that level being around 26,440/DJIA. That is also a 50% rebound of the recent decline.
Daily trend neutral points, descending daily 21 Low MACs and previous (late-June) lows – now support turned into resistance – provide a converging range of 3 – 5 day resistance levels. Current synergy is forming around 2920/ESU & 7710/NQU.
Weekly & monthly index cycles focus on late-Aug. (possibly Sept. ’19) for the next important low, so additional selling is expected after a bounce.
A DJIA low in late-Aug. would fulfill an 11 – 12 week high (Oct. ’18) – low (Dec ’18) – low (Mar ’19) – low (Jun ’19) – (low; Aug 19 – 30) Cycle Progression. Other indicators need to corroborate/hone this potential.
[On a related note, China’s stock indexes – after leading the sell-off – helped with the initial rebound after the Shanghai Composite spiked right to its monthly & weekly HLS targets at ~2877 & ~2880, respectively. It briefly spiked to 2863/XGY before rebounding.]”
Stock markets increasing likelihood for sharp sell-offs in Aug. 2019. Brief bounce expected, with 26,440/DJIA pegged for rebound peak. Second plunge most likely after Aug. 12! 40-Year Cycle AND 4-Year Cycleproject Aug. ’15-style sell-off. What does this reveal about Sept. – Dec. 2019?? And 2020???
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.