August ’19 Stock Plunge IX: Second Plunge Extremely Likely After Aug. 12; How Low are Equities Heading?
08/12/19 INSIIDE Track Intra-Month Update – “Stock Indices are powerfully confirming ongoing analysis for a multi-week sell-off from mid-to-late-July into late-August, potentially mimicking what was seen in August 2015 (and also forecast to be similar to late-2018).
As trade war tensions (and a deliberately plunging Yuan) intersect Hong Kong protests, China’s role in the potential for a sharp correction grows more significant by the day.
Similar to Sept. ’18, stock indexes traced out the recent top in roller-coaster fashion with numerous indexes peaking at different times from one another…
Proxy stocks like NFLX perpetuated a 9-week/~2-month low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in early-July and then triggered revealing sell signals on July 11/12, again acting as the proverbial canary in the coal mine– warning of impending trouble in the overall market.
Days later, the DJIA & DJTA peaked (mid-July), fulfilling multiple timing indicators and confirming ongoing analysis for an August ’19 sell-off.
The NYSE Index also peaked on July 15 and went through a textbook topping formation with its initial sell-off and rebound. It honed the timing for a sell-off, pinpointing July 29 as the likely time for a sharp ~5 trading-day decline to take hold in all the indexes (after the final indexes had peaked on July 24 – 26 – acting like the final cars in an old wooden roller coaster, prior to an accelerated drop).
The action of most stock indices on Aug. 2 corroborated that and increased the likelihood for a sharp sell-off leading into an Aug. 5/6 low and reversal higher.
Stocks bottomed on Aug. 5/6 and projected a sharp, 2 – 3 day rebound with most indexes focused on Aug. 7/8 for a rebound peak. That was the convergence of a 10 – 12 (calendar) day cycle in the S+P, a 14 – 15 day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the NQ-100 and a 7 – 8 day low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the DJIA. The NYA diverged slightly, projecting a rally into Aug. 9 and a reversal lower on Aug. 12.
On Aug. 7, several indexes attacked daily LHR levels – reaching extreme upside targets while projecting a final peak in the 1 – 3 days that followed. Those peaks arrived on Aug. 8 & 9, with equities projected to reverse lower today – Aug. 12. That was reinforced by the DJIA twice neutralizing its daily downtrend, as of Aug. 9. That greatly increased the likelihood for a reversal lower on Aug. 12… and a subsequent drop back to the early-Aug. lows.
The action of Aug. 9 also provided new levels of validation to the late-July – late-August outlook for a sharp sell-off. The Indexes generated a second set of neutral signals against their prevailing weekly uptrends. It would now take weekly closes below xx,xxx/DJIA, xxxx/ESU & xxxx/NQU to reverse those trends to down and confirm that multi-month peaks are in place.”
Stock markets increasing likelihood for second sharp sell-off after Aug. 12, 2019. Danger signs intensifying while technicals pinpoint time for panic selling! 40-Year Cycle AND 4-Year Cycle project Aug. ’15-style sell-off. What does this reveal about Sept. – Dec. 2019?? And 2020???
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.