August ’19 Stock Plunge VII: Second Plunge Expected After Aug. 12; Daily 21 Low MACs in Focus… What are Primary Downside Targets?
08/08/19 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update: “Stock Indices have rallied sharply after fulfilling the July 29 daily trend sell signals, plunging into Aug. 5 and completing a 5 trading-day decline as the S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 spiked to their respective weekly downside extreme targets (HLS levels at 2797/ESU & 7249/NQU).
That was also in sync with typical intra-month and month-opening action, where an initial extreme is seen on the third or fourth trading day of a new month – often before an intra-month trend signal can be generated (since a market would need to give a daily close below the low of the first three trading days, in order to generate an intra-month downtrend signal).
At the same time, the daily trend patterns projected an Aug. 5 low followed by a multi-day bounce. That is precisely what has unfolded.
Based on daily cycles in the three primary indexes, a short-term high was most likely on Aug. 7/8, the convergence of a 10 – 12 (calendar) day cycle in the S+P, a 14 – 15 day low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the NQ-100 and a 7 – 8 day low-high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression in the DJIA.
The NYSE Composite Index (NYA), which led this latest sell-off, is slightly different with a 12 – 14 day high-high-high-high Cycle Progression pinpointing Aug. 9 or 12 for a secondary peak. (The fact the DJIA, DJTA & NYA retested their lows today also resets the potential for a 2 – 3 day bounce and focuses on Aug. 9 or 12.)
That index triggered an outside-day/2 Close Reversal higher that also projected a rally into Aug. 9 or 12.
So, the price action of the next 2 – 3 days should determine if/when a secondary high takes hold.
Many indexes have attacked daily LHR levels, the first upside objective. That, too, portends a likely high on Aug. 9 or 12.
The other criterion, as part of the optimum scenario for a rebound peak, was a test of the daily 21 Low MAC. That is now within reach in most indexes…
These levels are not necessarily a ‘stop-and-reverse’ point since the indexes could easily spike above them before peaking… as long as they close below them at the end of the day. Other short-term and daily factors will be addressed in impending Weekly Re-Lay publications.
The focus for intermediate traders should remain on the evolving sell-off with stocks likely to see another decline after this brief bounce reaches fruition. The weekly trends cannot turn down until Aug. 16, at the earliest, reinforcing projections for a substantial drop from mid-July into Aug. 19 – 30. The trigger levels [reserved for subscribers]”
Stock markets increasing likelihood for more sharp sell-offs in Aug. 2019. Second plunge most likely after Aug. 12! 40-Year Cycle AND 4-Year Cycle project Aug. ’15-style sell-off. What does this reveal about Sept. – Dec. 2019?? And 2020???
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.