August ’19 Stock Plunge XIII: Quick Bounce into Aug. 20/21 Likely; Aug. 21 – 30 = Next Precarious Period! Will Daily Trends Trigger Another Sell Signal (Aug. 21)?
08/17/19 Weekly Re-Lay – “Stock Indices completed their rebounds on Aug. 12 & 13, finally reaching their descending daily 21 Low MACs while twice neutralizing their daily downtrends. That signaled a top and projected a downturn on Aug. 14, which quickly took hold.
Some indexes retested or spiked below their June lows (the lowest levels of the past ~6 months) while others initially bottomed above those levels. This leaves them in a 1 – 2 month range of congestion, needing to turn their weekly trends down to elevate these declines.
Stock Indices continue to confirm and fulfill analysis for a sharp plunge in late-July – late-Aug. ‘19 – the center of an overall bearish period forecast (since Jan. ’17) for July – Sept. ’19.
It is important to keep that in the broader context of analysis for 2018 – 2019.
As of Friday’s close, the DJIA is trading below its Jan. ’18 peak, below its Oct. ’18 peak and below its April ’19 peak. In other words, it remains in a wide trading range – with the upper and lower parameters set by the rally from Aug. ’17 into late-Jan. ’18.
The NYSE Index has added another level to that sequence, with each subsequent peak (Jan. ’18, Sept. ’18 & July ’19) occurring at or below the previous one. It turned its weekly 21 MAC down AND closed below it this past week. That is a bearish combination that has more of a 2 – 3 month impact than a 2 – 3 week impact (since it can, like a weekly trend reversal, occur within a week or two of an initial low and reactive bounce).
As of Aug. 16, all of the primary stock indexes have generated multiple neutral signals against their prevailing weekly uptrends. It would take weekly closes below xx,xxx/DJIA, xxxx/ESU & xxxx/NQU to reverse those trends to down and confirm that multi-month peaks are in place. [Specifics & trading strategies reserved for subscribers.]
They have completed a normal intermediate correction and need those weekly closes to elevate these declines to a 2 – 3 month correction. The DJIA maintains important support and its intermediate downside target at 24,450 – 24,750. If that were tested as the weekly trends were turning down, it would signal a likely point for an initial low.
Stock indexes completed their rebounds on Aug. 8 – 12 and entered the second bearish period from Aug. 13/14 into late-Aug. They peaked in textbook fashion, fulfilling short-term daily cycles, the daily LHRs and daily trend signals while rebounding to pivotal resistance at the daily 21 Low MACs – all of which combined to project a downturn on Aug. 14.
The descending daily 21 Low MACs could again provide pivotal resistance and spur a new round of selling in the coming week.”
Stock markets fulfilling analysis for second sell-off after Aug. 8 – 12 cycle high (ultimately lasting into late-Aug.). Quick bounce into Aug. 20/21 likely before next danger period takes hold on Aug. 21 – 30! Daily trend pattern could produce another 1 – 2 week sell signal by/on Aug. 21. 40-Year Cycle AND 4-Year Cycle project Aug. ’15-style sell-off. What does this reveal about Sept. – Dec. 2019?? And 2020???
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.