August ’19 Stock Plunge XV: Daily Trends Concur – Aug. 21/22 Peak Should Trigger New Sharp Sell-off During Aug. 21 – 30 Danger Period!
08/21/19 Weekly Re-Lay Alert: NFLX – The Prescient Proxy – “Stock Indices remain in the overall ‘Danger Period’ of July – Sept. 2019 – when the latest 10 – 20% decline (in a series of similar declines projected for 2018 – 2022, usually surrounded by equally significant advances) was/is projected.
The first arrived in Jan. – March ’18 and was followed by another in Oct. – Dec. ’18. An equidistant ~9 months later, July – Sept. ’19 was forecast (as early as Jan. ’17) to experience a similar sell-off.
As part of that, a sharp plunge was forecast in late-July – late-Aug. ‘19 – roughly the center of that overall bearish period forecast (since Jan. ’17) for July – Sept. ’19.
As described many times in recent years, key proxy stocks led that reversal – with NFLX again providing the most prescient omen with its July 11/12 sell signal after fulfilling a weekly Cycle Progression.
That was soon followed by signals in the NYA and DJTA, in mid-to-late-July, setting up the remaining indexes for a sell-off to begin on/after July 29. They quickly obliged, plunging into Aug. 5/6, rebounding into Aug. 8/9, and then again plunging into Aug. 15.
In the case of the NYA, the latest drop was the 5th decline of 3 – 5 trading days (since June 20), always followed by rebounds of 2 – 4 trading days. If that pattern is to continue, the NYA should have set its highest settlement price (for this rebound) today.
That dovetails with other indicators AND a daily Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the preceding high.
The daily trends (in DJIA, DJTA, NYA, etc.) could not turn up until Aug. 21, at the very earliest. That is often the time when a rebound peak is set and a new reversal lower unfolds. They failed to do that today, needing daily closes (settlements) above 26,xxx/DJIA, 29xx/ESU & 7xxx/NQU to do so… equities have entered a decisive 1 – 2 day period of ‘do-or-die’. [Specifics & trading strategies reserved for subscribers.]
Reinforcing the focus on Aug. 21, the daily LHR indicator (in about half of the indexes monitored) projected a new 1 – 2 week peak by/on Aug. 21. Then there are daily cycles…
In early-Aug., daily cycles were projecting a secondary high for Aug. 8 – 12, followed by another sharp sell-off. With the NYSE Index (NYA) leading the pack, increased focus was placed on its slightly-divergent daily cycle. The Aug. 7, 2019 Weekly Re-Lay Alert explained:
The next phase of that cycle in the NYA is on Aug. 20 – 23, 12 – 14 days from the Aug. 8/9 high. So, short-term cycles are reinforcing the short-term timing indicators – all focused on the current period.
From a standard week-to-week trading basis, the ideal price level for an intra-week high is near weekly resistance. (That might not occur the majority of the time, but it is the ideal scenario – particularly when other indicators corroborate.) Those levels are included in the Aug. 17 Weekly Re-Lay…
In the case of the DJIA, that resistance – around 26,400 – reinforces a recent sequence of range trading in the Industrials, first trading between 26,400 & 27,400 and then (after dropping below 26,400) between 25,400 & 26,400. As a result, ~26,400 is now support turned into resistance AND (again) a 50% rebound target.
The Aug. 15 DJIA low also fulfilled some other factors, including wave equivalence – in both price and time…
In May/June, the DJIA sold off for 22 trading days, losing about 2,000 points before encountering intermediate support.
In July/Aug, the DJIA have now sold off for 22 trading days, losing about 2,000 points before encountering intermediate support.
This reinforces what has been emphasized since the drop into Aug. 5/6: Stock Indexes have experienced a normal (moderate) correction but must close below those Aug. 5/6 lows – and also turn their weekly trends down – in order to elevate this to a higher magnitude decline…
As of Aug. 16, all of the primary stock indexes have generated multiple neutral signals against their prevailing weekly uptrends. It would take weekly closes below xx,xxx/DJIA, xxxx/ESU & xxxx/NQU to reverse those trends to down and confirm that multi-month peaks are in place. [Specifics & trading strategies reserved for subscribers.]
1 – 4 week traders can sell Sept. e-mini SP futures [Specifics & trading strategies reserved for subscribers.].
With regard to NFLX and its proxy/leading status, it has the potential to spike to new lows – leading into Aug. 22/23 – and then enter some consolidation. Since it typically bottoms and tops before the primary indexes, a NFLX low in the coming days would not preclude those indexes from seeing a new 3 – 5 (trading) day drop.”
Stock markets fulfill forecast for quick bounce into Aug. 21 (could stretch into Aug.22, based on NYA daily cycles) as next danger period prepares to take hold on Aug. 21 – 30! Daily trend pattern triggers new 1 – 2 week sell signal for Aug. 22. 40-Year Cycle AND 4-Year Cycle project Aug. ’15-style sell-off. What does this reveal about Sept. – Dec. 2019?? And 2020???
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.