Bitcoin & Ether Attacking Downside Targets; 1 – 2 Month Low Imminent.
01/24/24 – “Inflation continues to be a driving force behind most of the markets, triggering abrupt reversals or violent swings when unexpected data emerges. One of the key gauges of commodity inflation – described for several years in these publications – is the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (pictured above).
With its heavier weighting in energy markets, the GSCI often mimics the movement in Crude Oil… but there is enough of a divergence (caused by the inclusion of many other commodities) that each is worth analyzing separately. Only after that has been done should similarities be examined.
As detailed in early-December 2023, the GSCI – AND Crude Oil – were both forecast to bottom on December 11 – 15, ’23, when a myriad of cycles converged. The GSCI was projected to retest and briefly spike below its March, May & June ’23 lows before setting a bottom.
The GSCI and Crude did bottom in perfect lockstep with those cycle lows in mid-December, shortly after Gold & Silver had surged into early-December cycle highs – setting multi-month highs.
In the process, the GSCI precisely held (again) range-trading support – projecting a rebound back toward 572/GNX – the midpoint of its latest range. That is where that index found support in August & October ’23 and – after breaking below it – found resistance in Nov. ’23… creating a level that is also 4th wave of lesser degree resistance (the high just before the final decline).
The GSCI is likely to also find monthly 21 Low MAC resistance (in February) and weekly 21 High MAC resistance (in coming weeks) near 572 – creating a key level where a rebound peak could take hold. That could usher in the next phase of a deflationary cycle – leading into July 2024, when a bottom is most likely.
In the interim, other markets could provide corroborating trends and signals in both directions…
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin reached its 3 – 6 month/~48,000/BT target and fulfilled its multi-month buy signals from mid-Sept & mid-Oct ’23. These peaks pinpointed the ideal place to liquidate longs in anticipation of a decline to 37,700 – 38,000/BT & ~2150/ETH… lows could take hold at this time… Refer to the 1/11/24 The Bridge – Crypto Currency War Continues for additional Bitcoin analysis.”
Bitcoin & Ether are poised to set 1 – 2 month lows at this time, in sync with the weekly HLS indicator and with both cryptos attacking their downside pullback targets. They continue to fulfill analysis for advances from their Nov ’22 lows (projected multi-year lows). Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected a 3+-month surge to ~48,000/BT followed by a reactive pullback, capable of reaching ~38,400/BT in a short amount of time
The weekly HLS – and the attack of these downside targets – signals this correction at or near a bottom and should be followed by a new surge into February 2024. (Refer to January 11, 2024 The Bridge – Crypto Currency War Continues for updates on overall outlook and analysis for additional rally into February/March 2024.)
Will Dollar Rally (from Multi-Month Cycle Low in Late-December) Impact Cryptos?
Why is Weekly HLS Signaling 1 – 2 Month Low?
What are Next Upside Objectives for Cryptos… Leading into February ‘24?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.