Bitcoin 4-Shadow Portends 4Q ’25 Plunge (into Nov 17 – 21st Cycle Low?)
09-29-25 – “Outlook 2025/2026 – Foreshadows… and 4-Shadows
The first 100 days of 2025 provided plenty of volatility, uncertainty, and – most importantly – some revealing foreshadows for 2026. From a fundamental perspective, the implementation of – and threat of – escalating tariffs provided a glimpse of what was to follow.
From a technical perspective, many markets (most notably, many key stock indexes) produced textbook 4-Shadow signals on a multi-month basis.
This indicator (see broader description on page 5) is set up when a market has been in an uptrend and generated multiple intervening corrections (sell-offs) along the way. As that trend matures, it will create a sell-off that is larger – and often longer – than any of the preceding ones in that overall advance.
That signal is an ominous warning sign – a ’4-Shadow’.
The reason for the ‘4’ in ‘4-Shadow’ is that it represents the wave ‘4’ correction in an overall 5-wave advance. By exceeding the magnitude of all previous declines (in that overall advance), it is revealing a sign of developing underlying weakness.
However, it often does NOT signal a final high is in place. Instead, it paves the way for one final culminating rally that often peters out soon after it spikes above the preceding high. At that point, the market is prepped for a larger and more sustained decline (the fulfillment of the ‘4-Shadowing’).
Before elaborating on that aspect of the early-2025 action (in the Market Analysis section), it is beneficial to expound on the fundamental foreshadows of early-2025…
Tariffs, Trade Balance & Timing
In most cases, companies are slower to pass along sudden spikes in product costs if they perceive even the slightest threat of lost market share.
Competition creates a game of ’chicken’ where each competing business is loathe to be the first to significantly raise prices, knowing it will give their adversaries an advantage in gaining market share and ’stealing’ their customers – when those competitors are able to weather a wholesale price increase a little longer… and delay retail price increases.
If they have deeper pockets, or other reasons that justify a delay in related price hikes, they are at a distinct advantage. Such is now the case.
Leaders & Laggards
That is one reason, among many, why there is often a substantial lag between wholesale and retail price increases. Then there is the simple aspect of an entire supply chain – in which price increases (or decreases) slowly work into the final retail price of an item over an extended period of time.
If the aforementioned price hike delay occurs at multiple stages in that supply chain, the final effect of a cost spike can take months to make it through to the end user (consumer).
One needs only look back ~5 years to see a perfect large-scale example throughout the economy…
After the initial (Feb/March ‘20) shock and plunge related to Covid-19, most commodity markets bottomed out in late-March/early-April ’20 and began a sustained, 2 – 3 year uptrend. Since housing has been one of the most significant examples of that, let’s look at home building prices for an example.
In March 2020, Lumber prices bottomed around $300/board foot and began a multi-month surge. By the end of that year, it had exceeded $1,000/board foot – more than tripling in price. Commodity price inflation had roared back to life… but most consumers were oblivious.
At the same time, Copper prices surged from a low around 2.050/HG to ~4.350 in less than a year – more than doubling in price. Other metals and various building supplies also began their ascent. By the end of 2020, the train had left the station and was speeding down the tracks.
(Other commodities, like Soybeans, surged from ~800 to over ~1,600/S in a little over a year, also linked to trade wars.)
The majority of these price surges occurred in the 10 – 12 months following the Covid-19 spike lows of March 2020 – setting the stage for the inflationary debacle that would follow. However, they were slow to work their way through the supply chain.
Housing prices began to rise in 2021, further magnified by labor shortages that took hold in 2020.
However, it took much more time for producers – including home builders – to pass along these price hikes to consumers.
That is just normal economics with a lag – sometimes a substantial one – between wholesale and retail cost changes. (Of course, that lag is often longer when wholesale prices head lower – unless competition dictates that businesses drop their retail prices at a faster rate.)
Stockpiling… and Stock Priming
There are additional factors that can narrow or widen that lag effect. When discussing tariffs, there is also political pressure. There are seasonal factors. And, in this case, there is telegraphing…
As early-April ‘25 neared, and it became clear that tariffs were going to be enacted, companies began stockpiling goods – to the extent that storage and shipping of those goods became a big challenge – before tariffs went into effect. This was another factor that delayed the ultimate impact of those tariffs.
Strangely enough, financial ‘experts’ were warning of tariff-related debacles in 2, 3 or 4 months from that time frame. However, that was ignoring all the obvious facts laid out right in front of them. In this case, the lag effect – of an event like this – expanded to 6 – 12 months instead of just 3 – 6 months.
And that dovetailed perfectly with technical analysis portending a major stock market low in early-April ‘25 and a subsequent rally to new all-time highs. Multi-month indicators pinpointed early-April as the ideal time for a multi-month/intra-year low and primed stocks for a new surge.
That was powerfully corroborated when a majority of stocks & indexes fulfilled their 17-Year Cycle projections while bottoming in early-April ‘25. The following is a sample of how that was described many weeks & months before the fact – including the 4-Shadow related observation that every recovery had been quicker than the one before.
That was detailed as the ‘good news’ – or silver lining – of ongoing analysis for a ~30% plunge in stocks leading into late-March/early-April ’25…
All those indexes fulfilled their downside targets and all of them bottomed in early-April ‘25. 5 of the 6 primary indexes monitored by INSIIDE Track maintained positive monthly 21 MAC structures and prevented their monthly trends from turning down – projecting subsequent rallies to new all-time highs.
At the same time, they triggered larger-magnitude 4-Shadow signals – reinforcing the outlook for a quick rally to new highs. Most have initially fulfilled those upside objectives but timing is focused on divergent cycles peaking now and in late-2025/early-2026. See Stock Indices for more details…
Bitcoin & Ether neutralized their weekly uptrends but would not turn them down until weekly closes below 107,000/BTC & 3,800/ETH. That is what it would take to trigger lower target levels in both. Until that occurs, they remain in multi-month uptrends but below recent 1 – 3 month cycle highs.”
Bitcoin has held July ’25 cycle highs for 2+ months, fulfilling related analysis for a 1 – 2 month top at that time. Its weekly & monthly trends remain positive, leaving open the potential for an ultimate spike up to 125 – 127,000/BTC, where a myriad of major & multi-year upside targets, wave objectives & intra-year extreme levels collide. That has been the (published) upside target range for many months.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of parallels that should/would come into focus in 4Q 2025, when related cycles are projecting a major shift in many financial and currency-related markets… as well as stock indexes, interest rates and energy markets. That is when the first big sell-off in Bitcoin is most likely… potentially after one final spike high.
One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reversed:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Why Do Bitcoin’s Weekly & Monthly Trends Project Spike High?
Have Crypto Stocks Peaked? If so, When Will Bitcoin?
Why is Seismic Shift Likely in 4Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.