Bitcoin & Cryptos Decline with Stocks; Aug 18 – 25 = Key!
08/09/23 – “Stock Indices peaked and reversed lower in late-July/early-August ‘23, turning daily & intra-month trends down as a significant ‘danger period’ began. That initially validates intermediate cycle highs and the potential for a multi-week sell-off. A vulnerable period extends into late-Aug ’23.
The DJIA spiked higher on Aug 1/2 – fulfilling a ~1.5-month low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a series of ~3-month (90-degree) moves from successive highs on Nov 1/2, Feb 1 & May 1, ’23. It has since sold off but needs the intra-month trend to turn down in order to validate that peak. (A subsequent high would be expected in mid-Sept ’23… the same time energy markets are projected to peak.)
Coinciding with that peak, the Russell 2000 reached its 3 – 4 month upside targets (stemming from its March ’23 low) at 2000 – 2015/QRU. As illustrated in the above monthly chart, that also had the Russell 2000 peaking in lockstep with its rising monthly 40 High MAC and its declining monthly 21 High MAC (see Aug ’23 INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and illustrations).
As described over the past month, the Russell had been targeting a new rally into the end of July ’23 – the fulfillment of a ~6-week low-low-high-(high) Cycle Progression, successive 18-week advances, and a 25-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progression. Price/time indicators corroborated that…
The Russell 2000 attacked its monthly LHR in June ’23, reinforcing the likelihood for a subsequent peak in July or Aug ’23. If that high was just set, it would fulfill a 20-month low-high-(high; July ’23) Cycle Progression in the Russell, DJTA, S+P Midcap 400, and many stocks.
For the past ~2.5 years, the Russell 2000 has set a multi-week, often multi-month, low every 21 – 22 weeks. That has occurred six straight times and could recur if the it sells off and sets a low between mid-Aug and early-Sept. That would also fulfill an ~11-month high-low-(low) Cycle Progression.
The ideal time (greatest synergy) for that low would be on Aug 18 – 28, ’23. The NQ-100 has multiple daily cycles projecting a likely low around Aug 25/28, ’23… At the very last, these corrections should last into mid-Aug ’23 and could stretch later in the month…
The Dollar Index remains in a daily uptrend and a weekly downtrend – with the intra-month trends in neutral territory – leaving uncertain expectations surrounding daily & weekly cycles on Aug 14 – 25, ‘23…
Bitcoin & Ether have bounced, twice neutralizing their daily downtrends in the process… The action of the next 1 – 3 days should help clarify what to expect leading into mid-Sept ’23 – when weekly cycles portend a likely multi-month peak.
Gold & Silver remain in multi-month consolidation phases between their late-Feb/early-March ’23 lows and the subsequent cycle highs set on May 3 – 5…
The XAU & HUI are negative on a 2 – 4 week basis but neutral on a 1 – 2 month basis after fulfilling analysis for July rallies to ~130 – 133/XAU & 254 – 257/HUI. During that rebound, they neutralized their weekly downtrends multiple times but could not turn them up. That projected a drop back to the June/July low, which has been fulfilled in the HUI.
In doing so, the HUI has initially perpetuated its own 22 – 23-week high (Nov 15-22, ’21) – high (Apr 18-25, ’22) – low (Sept 19-26, ‘22) – low (Feb 24-Mar 9, ’23) – (low; Aug 3 – 17, ’23) Cycle Progression. That does not prevent further selling, but begins to usher in the 1 – 2 week period when a low is likely.”
Bitcoin & Ether have sold off since fulfilling projections for a rally to new highs and a multi-month peak in mid-July (July 14 – 20), coinciding with a similar rally and peak in Gold & Silver (and XAU… and even Euro) and a corresponding decline and low in the US Dollar Index.
These markets (Bitcoin, Ether, Gold, Silver & Euro) have been expected to head lower into August 18 – 25, ’23, when the greatest synergy of cycles converge and portend the next 1 – 2 month (or longer) bottom, even as the Dollar Index should rally into that time frame.
The weekly trend pattern projects Ether to plunge below its mid-June ’23 low (~1,620/ETH) with Bitcoin dropping back toward, but ideally holding above, its mid-June ’23 low of ~24,800/BT… as they drop into August 15 – 22, ’23. The levels of those projected lows should clarify what to expect in Nov ’23 – the subsequent cycle low.
Is Bitcoin’s (& Cryptos’) 2023 Advance Complete?
How Low Will Next Correction Drop?
How Does Dollar/Gold/Crypto Analysis Reinforce Late-Aug ’23 Cycles?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.