Bitcoin & Stocks Portend Substantial Surges; Bitcoin Cycles Peak in 3Q & 4Q 2025.
04/21/25 – “Date of Aggression Shift”
The Date of Aggression (April 19th) is poised to time another abrupt shift** in the ‘Rock, Paper, Scissors’ relationship at the core of the latest Currency War.
In this case, it is also likely to coincide with an underlying equity shift**. [**The shift being discussed is an intermediate, 1 – 2 month shift.]
The purpose of this issue of The Bridge is to bring together already-detailed analysis and present it together… hopefully providing readers with a comprehensive collection of the primary factors impacting this latest battle between paper (fiat, or debt-based), hard (metals) & digital currency.
The Setup
In many cases, and this one is no exception, a final high or low in a market does not always coincide with a synergistic shift like the one that is subtly taking hold now.
Usually, some of the related markets have already reached their extremes and are tracing out a topping or bottoming process as they wait for a final market or two to reach their extreme. In this case, Gold & the US Dollar Index appear to be the markets nearing an extreme while Bitcoin and Stock Indices have already set lows (April 7th).
Most of the related analysis has already been published so it is mostly a matter of tying it all together in order to demonstrate the significance of the days surrounding April 19, 2025.
In order to do that, it is also helpful to reiterate why this time frame is so important and how it can set the stage for the subsequent 10 – 11 months…
Natural Year Opening Range
April 19th times the culmination of the first ’month’ of the Natural Year (see page 5 – 6 for explanation). As a result, it sets the ‘opening range’ for the remainder of that Natural Year – from Vernal equinox 2025 until Vernal equinox 2026 – and provides critical parameters for market trends within that time period.
In this case, Stock Indexes & Bitcoin have already set (likely) multi-month lows while Gold is surging into April 19th and is expected to peak in the coming week (April 21 – 25, ‘25) – when weekly cycles converge. The Dollar Index is poised to bottom at the same time.
As discussed in recent weeks, Bitcoin held pivotal support points when it dove into early-March ‘25 cycle lows and retested (and held) them on April 7 – 9, ‘25 as stocks were plummeting into their corresponding cycle low (April 3 – 7, ‘25).
At the time, Bitcoin reinforced its positive monthly & weekly trend structure – indicating it could subsequently see a rally back to its Dec ‘24 & Jan ‘25 peaks… its all-time high.
In both cases – monthly trend & weekly trend – Bitcoin corrected long enough and far enough to neutralize its underlying uptrend multiple times… but NOT turn that trend down. That is the key!
In the case of the weekly trend, Bitcoin has neutralized that trend in 8 consecutive weeks and is expected to begin a new surge on April 21 – 25th.
In the case of the monthly trend, Bitcoin twice neutralized its uptrend – as of March 31, ‘25 – setting the stage for a spike low and reversal higher in April ‘25… which is beginning to unfold.
That low has initially taken hold and Bitcoin just closed the past week above its monthly 2nd Close Resistance (84,261/BTC) – reinforcing the outlook for a surge during the second half of April… into the next monthly close (April 30, ‘25).
Rock, Paper, Scissors
This brings the discussion back around to the ‘rock, paper, scissors’ analogy used to illustrate the ongoing Currency War battles. In this case, Bitcoin has bottomed but is waiting to accelerate higher.
The biggest impediments to that are the accelerating surge in Gold and the accelerating plunge in the US Dollar. With both of those markets in extreme phases, there was little room for Bitcoin to accelerate higher… until now.
[That analogy has been repeatedly discussed and is included in an excerpt from May 2021 on pages 14 – 15.]
That could all change immediately after the Date of Aggression and the culmination of the first month of Natural Year 2025/26!
Rock, Paper, Scissors Recap
In order to lay the foundation for the coming months, it is helpful to review what has been forecast for 2025 – with respect to these markets. Some of the corresponding analysis is included in the following pages – to provide proper context.
Here are the 3 – 6-month & 6 – 12 month outlooks described since Sept – Nov 2024:
Dollar – The US Dollar Index was forecast to rally from Sept ’24 into January ’25 and then enter a major decline – plunging in 2025 and potentially extending that drop into November ’25.
Gold – Gold was forecast to set a pullback low in November ’24 and then enter a new bull market that should ultimately lead to a higher-magnitude peak in Oct/Nov ’25 – linked to an uncanny ~12.5-month cycle.
It was projected to rally into late-April/early-May ’25 – the midpoint of that next ~12.5-month high-high cycle – and set a multi-month peak at that time. A recent annual cycle – linked to the Date of Aggression – corroborates that and pinpoints April 14 – 25th as the ideal time for a peak.
Bitcoin – Bitcoin was projected to peak in Dec ’24/Jan ’25 and then undergo a sizeable multi-month drop to at least 79,000/BTC and ideally down to ~73,500 – ~74,500 – where its previous March ‘24 high (resistance turned into support) and related downside targets converged.
Stock Indexes – Stock indices were forecast to go through a topping phase – beginning with the S+P Midcap 400, Russell 2000 & DJTA peaking in late-Nov ’24 – and then suffer sharp, 20 – 25% drops leading into early-April ’25…
R.P.S. Outlook
The week of April 21 – 25th is expected to have an oversized impact on this latest phase of the intensifying Currency War.
It is a time when Gold could accelerate into a multi-week (or longer) peak, the Dollar Index spike to a multi-week (or longer) low AND the baton to be passed to Bitcoin for a new – potentially accelerated – rally into [reserved for subscribers]…
Stock indexes, though not normally associated with these Currency War discussions, possess the potential for a corresponding rally.
Each of these markets have their own specific outlooks and expectations with the resulting trends likely to last significantly different from one another. However, it is when one steps back and attempts to view ‘the forest for the trees’ that a more meaningful perspective can be gained.
2025 has been, and still is, expected to intensify the global battle for economic, currency and ultimately military supremacy… reinforcing the focus on 2028/2029 for a seismic shift (or the culmination of a seismic shift) in the global order.
Post DoA
The Date of Aggression is poised to time the culmination of a multitude of market stressors… and potentially usher in a brief respite.
That could be what validates ongoing analysis for a new rally in Bitcoin & Stock Indexes… With this first ‘month’ reaching fruition, it is time to look ahead and see what this Natural Year 2025/26 opening range reveals about the coming months. If current analysis is accurate, the first week could see some fireworks.“
Bitcoin is reinforcing signs of a new surge after fulfilling analysis for a bottom near ~74,500/BT (74,496/BT was April 7th low) and maintaining positive weekly & monthly trends, triggering a revealing buy signal on April 9th. The April low coincided with the fulfillment of stock market declines as powerful cycles bottomed and portended new multi-month rallies.
July ’25 is the next phase of an uncanny 16-month Cycle Progression in Bitcoin when a multi-month peak is expected. It is also the next phase of corroborating ~6-month & ~11-month Cycle Progressions. Bitcoin’s weekly & monthly trends argue for a rally to new all-time highs by/in 4Q ’25. (Other cryptos – like Litecoin, Doge & Solana turned their monthly trends down, so secondary highs are likely in July ‘25.)
See the November ’24 issue of The Bridge for additional analysis and illustrations of this 16-month cycle and its focus on July 2025…
The Bridge – “Currency War: Rock, Paper, Scissors II”
Will Bitcoin Reach New All-Time Highs by/in July ‘25?
How are Stock Index Monthly Trends Corroborating?
Could 2025 See Major Top in Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.