Bitcoin Bottom Imminent? Stocks Project Final Spike Low!
04/05/25 – “Stock indexes have initially fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for overall declines into late-March/early-April with most indexes projected to lose 20 – 25% in that time period. They are also tracing out a textbook monthly chart scenario for an impending low (test HLS, then LLS) – reinforcing the pivotal nature of cycle lows on April 3 – 7th.
Bonds & Notes spiked higher during the past week, fulfilling the outlook for a potential high. The Dollar, Euro & Yen extended their 1Q ’25 trends, which are nearing extremes. Gold & Silver sold off sharply with Silver initially fulfilling its post-Dec ’24 outlook for new lows…
Stock Indices are culminating their latest decline in spectacular fashion, reinforcing the impact of the 90/10 Rule of Cycles (in which a majority of a price move occurs at the end of a cycle).
Since the start of 2025, the focus has been on March/April – and more specifically on late-March/early-April ’25 – as the most likely time for the culmination of multi-month stock plunges.
As described in February & March, stocks had a high potential to fulfill (minimum) 17-Year Cycle projections – for 20 – 25% declines – by/in April ’25 when an initial bottom was/is most likely. On a monthly chart basis, they have also traced out the ideal sequence for an impending multi-month low.
When a market is heading into a low (daily, wkly or monthly), it will usually accelerate to a HLS, hit and hold that level on the close, and then spike down to the LLS in the subsequent period. On a monthly basis, most every major index achieved that after plunging to monthly HLS levels in March ’25 (19,039/NQM, etc.) and setting the stage for a drop to the monthly LLS in April.
That LLS comes into play at 38,222/DJIA, 5165/ ESM, 17,267/NQM, 2637.25/IDX, 1824/QRM & 12,750/DJTA. All of these were just tested on April 4th, in the midst of the ideal time for an early-April low.
That was corroborated by a myriad of timing indicators focused on April 3 – 7, including a ~9-week/~2-month high-high-high-high-(low; April 1 – 7) Cycle Progression – in the DJIA & other indexes – and the ubiquitous ~8-month cycle from the August 5, ’24 low.
In the S+P 500, that ~8-month cycle (same cycle that projected the IDX Nov 22/25, ’24 peak) split into a symmetrical ~4-month/123-day low (Aug 5) – high (Dec 6) – (low; April 4/7th) cycle. The DJTA also completed a 2DGR retracement on April 3/4th while fulfilling the potential for the longest decline since 2022 (4-Shadow signal).
Stock indices plunged after setting lower highs on March 26th, fulfilling a convergence of intermediate cycles that projected a new multi-week decline. That was reinforced by the DJIA bouncing right to its multi-week upside targets at 42,801 – 42,907/DJIA – with most indexes bouncing to declining daily 21 High MACs and reversing lower – portending new sell-offs as the crescendo to multi-month declines.
A low on April 3rd/4th/7th would perpetuate a geometric ~1-month/~30-degree low-low cycle that already timed lows in 5 of the last 8 months…
Bitcoin & Ether are holding steady in the face of plummeting stocks, a sign of some underlying resilience that could lead to a stronger rally. That is also due to the fact Bitcoin has not been able to turn its weekly trend down (weekly close below 78,400/BTC needed) and just neutralized its monthly uptrend for the 2nd time on March 31st.
In contrast, the daily trend remains moderately negative and would not turn positive until a daily close above 88,700/BTC. That is what it would take to signal a higher-magnitude low and project a more significant rally (that could stretch into April 18/21st if related signals are triggered)…
Gold & Silver remain divergent with Silver finally fulfilling what it signaled in Dec ’24…
At the time, Silver turned its weekly trend down after Gold had failed to do the same thing. That began a multi-month period of divergence – on different levels – with Gold projecting a surge to new highs in 1Q ’25 as Silver portended ongoing congestion and a rally to a lower high.
Silver’s wave structure identified the post-Dec rally as a likely ‘B’ wave advance that would ultimately give way to a ‘C’ wave decline with a downside target below the mid-Dec ’25 low. Silver adhered to that outlook and was only able to twice neutralize its weekly downtrend during the subsequent 1Q ’25 rally.
Meanwhile, Gold was tracing out a 5-wave advance from its mid-November low – a low that fulfilled multiple downside objectives including the matching of its largest previous decline (~260.0/GC) and ushered in the latest surge.
Since late-February, Gold has also traced out a 5-wave advance as part of that larger-magnitude 5th wave (of the 5-wave advance from Nov ’24).
Silver peaked in lockstep with its weekly trend pattern and reversed lower during the week after its weekly 21 MAC had turned down. It has already fulfilled the minimum downside target for this ‘C’ wave decline – dropping below the mid-Dec low while matching the magnitude of its ‘A’ wave decline (Oct – Dec ’24 decline).
Silver could still see some additional downside but has 3 – 6 month support near 27.60/SIK – its 4th wave of lesser degree support.
From a timing perspective, Silver has fulfilled the potential to mirror the duration of its largest previous decline (22 – 23 weeks) and set the stage for a major low in April 2025 – 180 degrees from its Oct ’24 peak and ~360 degrees prior to major cycles that peak in ~April 2026.
Along with this, Gold is in the ideal setup to create a third consecutive decline of ~260.0/GCM – which would be accomplished with a drop to ~2940/GCM. That is also where the coming week’s HLS comes into play.
The rising weekly 21 High MAC and the 50% retracement support come into play around 2900/ GCM, so Gold could spike that low in the coming week(s).”
Bitcoin is showing initial signs of bottoming but is still expected to attack ~74,500/BT before a multi-month bottom becomes more likely. This could coincide with a final stock market spike low as powerful cycles bottom. Stocks & cryptos are setting the stage for a decisive low to be set during the first ‘month’ of the new Natural Year – between March 20 – April 19, ’25 – with a final capitulating sell-off projected for early-April ’25.
That would then turn the focus to future Bitcoin cycle highs – in July & 4Q 2025. Bitcoin’s cycles peak again in late-July ’25 – the next phase of its uncanny 16-month Cycle Progression that has been repeatedly highlighted over the past couple years. It is also the next phase of corroborating ~6-month & ~11-month Cycle Progressions. A rally into that time is likely.
See the November ’24 issue of The Bridge for additional analysis and illustrations of this 16-month cycle and its focus on July 2025…
The Bridge – “Currency War: Rock, Paper, Scissors II”
Will Bitcoin Attack ~74.500/BT and Bottom?
How High Could Cryptos Subsequently Climb into July ’25 Cycle High?
What Impact Should Early-April Stock Market Cycle Lows Have?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.