Bitcoin Bounce to ~97K Likely; Eerie Parallels Focus on Jan/Feb ’26 For Next Plunge!
12-03-25 – “Daily & intra-month trends often set the stage for what to expect throughout a given month. However, the intra-month trend cannot be ascertained until (at least) the 4th trading day of each new month. That is because it requires a daily close above or below the trading range of the first 3 trading days.
Those first 3 trading days are considered the ‘opening range’ for any particular month.
Opening ranges are a frequently discussed tool – incorporating time and price – that play a pivotal role in trading. While this is not the type of indicator that triggers direct trading signals, it plays a corroborating role in other trigger signals and technical indicators.
The critical aspect of these is not as much the range itself – although that plays two key roles during the month in focus – but when and where a market breaks out of those opening ranges.
Like all indicators, this one requires synergy to take on greater significance and hold more credibility. There are also times when an initial intra-month trend signal needs reinforcement due to conflicting 1 – 2-week indicators like the daily trend indicator.
In contrast, there are those times – like the current setup in the S+P 500 – when an intra-month trend signal can occur in lockstep with other corroborating 1 – 2 week (or longer) technical signals…
Bitcoin & Ether are validating analysis for rallies into Dec 4 – 8th after fulfilling a pair of critical downside objectives – one in price and one in time – during the month of November ‘25
Ever since the early-October peak in Bitcoin, the outlook was for a sharp decline into the week of Nov 17 – 21st, ’25 AND a sharp drop to ~80,000/BTC during that primary decline.
On Nov 21st, Bitcoin spiked below 81,000 (80,742/BT intraday low) and fulfilled both.
That powerfully validates multi-year cycles that peaked in 4Q ’25 and that projected a major decline to unfold in Bitcoin & cryptos, beginning in Nov ’25. That ~4-year cycle portends at least a 3 – 6-month decline… and potentially longer.
This drop also validates the July ’25 cycle peak in major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) that continue to trend lower.
In the short-term, initial resistance is near 97,000 with more significant resistance near 99,000/BTC.“
Bitcoin & cryptos fulfilled early-October sell signals & projections for sharp declines into Nov 17 – 21, ’25 (and to ~80,000/BT). That was/is projected to spur a rebound to at least 97,000/BTC before a second plunge takes hold in Jan/Feb ’26… and potentially spills over into other markets.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of ‘eerie parallels’ that should spur an initial drop in crypto prices in 4Q 2025 and then a second drop in 1Q ’26 – all leading into a unique monthly Cycle Progression low in 2Q ‘26. ~70K is the next (minimum) downside target.
The initial plunge in Bitcoin was projected to be an omen of what is likely to follow in 1Q ‘26 – in line with stock index 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions. One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle goes through a major downward shift:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Why Should Bitcoin Reach ~97K Before Next Plunge?
Why Did Nov ‘25 Bitcoin & Stock Index Sell-offs Portend Jan/Feb. ’26 Sell-off?
Will ‘Eerie Parallels’ Emerge in Feb/March ’26… Right on Schedule?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.