Bitcoin Bubble Burst & 40YC of Currency Wars: Plunge to ~13,800/BT on Track!
06/29/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – 80/20 Rule of Bubbles – “The bursting bubble in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is placing an emphatic exclamation mark on the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War analysis and what was forecast – for nearly a decade – for the time frame from 2016 into 2021.
It is also occurring alongside the culmination of a 40-Year Cycle in stocks that was forecast to pinpoint a major peak in 2022 (“ideally in early-Jan ’22”).
With regard to the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War, the most significant period in that ~6-year culmination (2016 – 2021) – as is often the case in lockstep with the 90/10 Rule of Cycles – was/is the final year and more specifically, the final ~6 months… 2021 and late-2021.
One of the most salient (yet also surreptitious) aspects of that analysis was the projection for Gold and other anti-Dollar vehicles – of which Bitcoin became the leader – to undergo multi-year bull markets and culminate with parabolic advances in 2020/2021 – the completion and transition of that uncanny 40-Year Cycle.
That was described throughout 2015 – 2020 and reiterated in 2021, with the following excerpts offering a small sample of related analysis:
4-29-21 – “The markets have entered a momentous time when 5 – 10-year trends and shifts were projected to culminate, 40-year cycles and trends were projected to shift and larger-degree cycles – like the 80-Year Cycle of War – were projected to enter a new and decisive phase.”
5-27-21 – “The first five months of 2021 have powerfully reinforced the perspective on the current phase of ‘Currency Wars’ and the ongoing forecast – since 2015/ 2016 – that Gold and other anti-Dollar vehicles would move higher into 2021 (with accelerated advances projected for 3Q ‘20 – 2Q ‘21) as the Dollar corrected into 2021. At that point, the US Dollar was/is expected to set a multi-year low while Gold, Bitcoin, et al were forecast to set multi-year peaks.”
Bitcoin had a 4-Year Cycle since its origin (the same cycle that also governs its ‘halving’) – creating a ~4-Year low (‘09) – high (Nov/Dec ’13) – high (Nov/ Dec ’17) – high (Nov/Dec ’21) Cycle Progression and pinpointing when a final peak was most likely and the bubble was most likely to burst (in 1Q/2Q ’22).
That 4-Year Cycle high powerfully reinforced its overall outlook, its Elliott Wave structure, the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars, cycles in the US Dollar, gold & interest rates, and a myriad of other cycles portending a ‘seismic shift’ in 2021/2022 as a multitude of generational cycles transitioned (the most volatile & dangerous time in a cycle).
Bitcoin surged into Nov ’21, completing what was necessary for a ‘5’ of ‘V’ wave peak while fulfilling what the weekly & monthly trends had projected. That dovetailed with major cycle highs and ‘5th of 5th’ wave peaks in multiple stock indices (Russell 2000, DJTA & Nasdaq 100) and set the stage for a bearish period in cryptos, lasting into Sept ’22.
On a 6 – 12 month basis, Bitcoin remains on track for an overall decline into Sept ’22 (see related ~15-month HCP diagram on page 4) and could easily reach its primary 1 – 2 year downside target at ~13,800.
That is where the June ’19 peak took hold (resistance turned into support) and is where the current decline since March ’22 (‘C’ wave) would equal the magnitude of the initial decline (‘A’ wave) from Nov ’21 into Jan ’22.
It is also where the 80/20 Rule of Bubbles would be fulfilled. This principle was displayed and discussed in 2002 with regard to tech stocks and in 2015/2016 with the XAU. It also applied to Japanese stocks in the 1990’s.
In all three cases, and likely in Bitcoin, a bubble gives back roughly 80% of its value and drops to a level that is ~20% of its peak price.
Japanese stocks peaked in 1989.
The dot.com bubble peaked in early-2000.
The XAU bubble peaked in late-2010 – almost 11 years later (Solar Cycle correlation??).
And, the Bitcoin bubble peaked in late-2021 – almost 11 years later.
It will likely (ultimately) lose 80% of its peak value!
Several of the headwinds that buffeted and battered Bitcoin were/are also ramming into equity markets at the precise time they were fulfilling multi-year upside price and wave objectives as well as multi-month, multi-year and even multi-decade cycles in early-Nov ’21 and finally into early-Jan ’22.
That triggered a related plunge in equities, bringing us to the present…
Bitcoin reached a crucial 6 – 12 month downside target (triggered at Nov ’21 peak) near 20,000/BT and is negative until a daily close above 24,000/BTU.”
Bitcoin, in Nov ’21, fulfilled what its monthly and weekly trend indicators projected and what its overall wave structure necessitated – a surge to new all-time highs (~66,000+/BT) ushering in a major top in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘21. That also fulfilled the multi-year outlook for a major advance into 2021 when Currency War Cycles culminated.
Since then, Bitcoin has been projected to plunge into Sept ’22 – when monthly cycles project the next major low.
What does this mean for the future of cryptos?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.