Bitcoin Bubble Continues to Burst; On Track for Drop Below 14,000/BT!
06/15/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – Bitcoin Bubble Continues to Burst – “Throughout 2020/2021, our publications highlighted the culminating 7th phase of America’s 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars (finales/shifts in 1781, 1821, 1861, 1901, 1941, 1981 & 2021) – projected to usher in a seismic economic and financial shift in the years and decades that follow. That Phase VII included a new antagonist with a three-way battle between fiat (paper), hard (metals) and digital (cryptos) currencies.
A pair of Alerts published in May 2021 reiterated this, explaining why Bitcoin was about to enter the final stage of a massive bubble that should peak in 2021 (the title reflected that outlook). It had fulfilled the upside target for a wave v of 3 – with the April ’21 peak near 65,000/BT – and had nearly completed the projected correction to ~29,000/BT.
That was forecast to usher in one final surge to new highs – ideally spiking above the April ’21 peak but topping only a little above 65,000/BT.
The May 27, ’21 Weekly Re-Lay Alert explained it this way:
5-27-21 – “The first five months of 2021 have powerfully reinforced the perspective on the current phase of ‘Currency Wars’ and the ongoing forecast – since 2015/ 2016 – that Gold and other anti-Dollar vehicles would move higher into 2021 (with accelerated advances projected for 3Q ‘20 – 2Q ‘21) as the Dollar corrected into 2021. At that point, the US Dollar was/is expected to set a multi-year low while Gold, Bitcoin, et al were forecast to set multi-year peaks.”
That built on what had been described in multiple issues of INSIIDE Track, including the May ’21 issue:
4-29-21 – “The markets have entered a momentous time when 5 – 10-year trends and shifts were projected to culminate, 40-year cycles and trends were projected to shift and larger-degree cycles – like the 80-Year Cycle of War – were projected to enter a new and decisive phase.
At least part of these shifts are also linked to the uncanny influence of the ~11-Year Sunspot/Solar Cycle that bottomed in late-2019 and is likely to accelerate higher in 2021 and 2022. That could create all kinds of unintended consequences…
Among the events or shifts projected for 2020/2021 were:
- Completion and transition of ongoing 40-Year Cycle of Currency War.
- Parabolic phase in Gold/Silver bull markets as well as Bitcoin/crypto bull markets.
- Food Crisis Cycles prompting substantially higher prices in grains and foodstuffs – whether supply or demand related.
- Related accelerated advances in grains, beginning with Soybeans in 2020 and shifting to Wheat (and Corn) in 2021 and back to Soybeans in 2022.
- Culmination of US Dollar correction from 2017 peak (and onset of new 1 – 3 year advance) – in the first half of 2021.
- Major bottom and onset of multi-year uptrend in interest rates, beginning in mid-2020.
- Onset of multi-year war cycle linked to 80-Year Cycle of War (1781, 1861, 1941, 2021) – beginning in 2021 and impacting several years that follow.
In crucial respects, all of these expectations are related. The key is identifying the connecting threads and acting accordingly…
Bitcoin reached a major upside objective near 65,000/BT (65,000 – 66,800/BT) – a decisive target on a 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12-month basis that had Bitcoin precisely matching the magnitude of its previous rally (from March ’20 into Jan. ’21) when it attacked that level… That could trigger an overall correction back to ~29,000/BT – the 4th wave of lesser degree support (and also the 2021 intra-year low and support).”
The chart above (May ’21) shows how the wave structure in Bitcoin was shaping up ~13 months ago.
With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it is now possible to assess these projections – some of which had been forecast for 5 – 10 years prior, pinpointing 2021/2022 as the time for their fulfillment and a massive shift:
Culmination of Currency War – √
Parabolic rally in Bitcoin/cryptos – √
Food Crises – √
Soybean, Wheat & Corn Surges – √
US Dollar Bottom – √
Major uptrend in interest rates – √
Onset of War Cycle – √
In between those two updates, the May 19, ’21 Weekly Re-Lay Alert (titled: “Rock, Paper, Scissors (Bitcoin Bubble?) and 4WoLD”) explained the connection between the currency combatants and why Bitcoin was entering the final stages of a major bubble:
5-19-21 – “Currency Wars Heat Up – Once again, the three primary ‘currencies’ – roughly categorized by fiat (paper, debt-backed), hard (metals) and digital (cryptos) – are swinging in close synchronicity when viewed from a broader vantagepoint…
In the first quarter of 2021, Bitcoin surged – keeping a lid on rallies in Gold and the Dollar.
In April, however, the Dollar & Bitcoin plateaued as Gold bottomed. The Dollar began to sell off and then Bitcoin followed suit – leaving a window of opportunity for Gold to rally during the precise time (April/May ’21) that cycles have projected for many months.
That is what has transpired…
Bitcoin fulfilled about 97% of the downside expectations it triggered when it fulfilled its major upside target at ~65,000/BT and signaled that a ‘5th’ wave peak was likely.
That was projected to trigger a sharp plunge back toward ~29,000/BT – the 4th wave of lesser degree support (and the 2021 intra-year low and support).”
After fulfilling wave v of 3 of V in April ‘21, Bitcoin did bottom near 29,000/BT (4 of V) – in May/June ’21 – while maintaining positive weekly & monthly trends. Those trends projected a rally back to the major high – reinforcing the perceived Elliott Wave structure and corroborating the outlook for a final blow-off top before the end of 2021. The stage was set…
That was forecast to time a major shift!
Despite its limited history, Bitcoin had a 4-Year Cycle since its origin (the same cycle that also governs its ‘halving’) – creating a ~4-Year low (2009) – high (Nov/ Dec ’13) – high (Nov/Dec ’17) – high (Nov/Dec ’21) Cycle Progression that powerfully reinforced its overall outlook, its Elliott Wave structure, the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars, cycles in the US Dollar, gold & interest rates, and a myriad of other cycles portending a ‘seismic shift’ in 2021/2022 as a multitude of generational cycles transitioned (the most volatile & dangerous time).
Bitcoin surged into Nov ’21 and spiked above the ‘3’ of ‘V’ peak – completing what was necessary for a ‘5’ of ‘V’ wave peak while fulfilling what the weekly & monthly trends had projected – coinciding with major cycle highs and ‘5th of 5th’ wave peaks in multiple stock indices (Russell 2000, DJTA & Nasdaq 100) and setting the stage for a bearish period that could/should extend until Sept ’22.
From a 6 – 12 month perspective, the initial downside target was again ~29,000/BT – that first level of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support. That was fulfilled on May 11/12 (same time that Russell 2000 and other stock indexes initially bottomed) and ushered in an anemic bounce.
That turned the focus to ~20,000/BT – the second downside target (on a 6 – 12 month basis) and the level of the Dec ’17 peak – multi-year resistance turned into support. Bitcoin has just fulfilled that, ushering in a more likely time for another multi-week low…
As for the longer-term outlook, and even the outlook into Sept ’22, that will be further discussed in INSIIDE Track and/or related publications.”
Bitcoin, in Nov ’21, fulfilled what its monthly and weekly trend indicators projected and what its overall wave structure necessitated – a surge to new all-time highs (~66,000+/BT) ushering in a major top in late-Oct/early-Nov ‘21. That also fulfilled the multi-year outlook for a major advance into 2021 when Currency War Cycles culminated.
Since then, Bitcoin has been projected to plunge into Sept ’22 – when monthly cycles project the next major low.
What does this mean for the future of cryptos?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.