Bitcoin Confirming Major Top… New Plunge Likely – in late-Feb/early-March.
02/12/25 – “CPI data came out ’hotter than expected’… exactly as expected. The price action in Bonds & Notes signaled a top last week and then quickly reversed the daily trend back down – increasing the likelihood for a decline into February 18 – 21st, when daily & weekly cycles re-converge.
That is also in sync with their weekly trend indicator – which turned neutral (from down) twice while rebounding into early-February… signaling a top. Bonds & Notes failed to turn their new intra-month trends up, failed to exceed their declining weekly 21 Low MACs and failed to turn their weekly trends up… all projecting a drop back to the lows.
Today’s CPI release marked the start of the most precarious portion of the current ‘Danger Zone’ for stocks – a period that began in late-January and stretches into Feb 21st.
Similar to its two predecessors (since the late-Nov/early-Dec stock market peaks), the final days of that ‘Danger Zone’ – in this case, the period from Feb 12 – 21st – are the most vulnerable. In contrast to those two previous periods, several indexes have not yet confirmed a new period of selling.
And then there is the Dollar, which initially rallied on the CPI release… but then quickly retreated. It is in a topping phase – after fulfilling analysis for a rally from late-September into January ’25 – but has not yet removed the potential for a retest of recent highs.
Metals & Cryptos – the two competing anti-Dollar vehicles – add to the mixed picture (where inflation and interest rates are concerned) for the coming weeks. Most cryptos plunged into early-February – fulfilling geometric cycles from previous lows in early-August & early-Nov ’24 while simultaneously projecting future lows in late-Feb/early-March ’25.
Gold & Silver remain divergent…
The Dollar Index is in limbo after surging to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/ DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/DXH) to begin the week/month and reversing lower. It needs to turn its intra-month trend down, with a daily close below 107.15/DXH, to confirm a new multi-week top…
The Euro is the inverse and retested its January low before rebounding. It needs a daily close above 1.0464/ECH to signal that a new multi-week low is intact… A low at any time in this 2-month period would also perpetuate a 28 – 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression.
The Yen fulfilled projections for an initial surge into Feb 7th and up to .6640 – .6700/JYH, where multiple weekly & monthly LHRs converge with monthly resistance & upside wave targets. If it sets a low by/ on Feb 14/18th, the Yen could see a new rally.
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on Jan 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close, reinforcing the potential for a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak while fulfilling a ~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression.
Prior to that, Ether peaked in Dec after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak – while completing a ~3-year low (4Q ’18) – high (4Q ’21) – (high; 4Q 2024) Cycle Progression. It has already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak as cryptos confirm ongoing analysis for a drop in 1Q ‘25.
At its peak, Bitcoin fulfilled all of what was expected from a wave ‘V’ rally – a culminating advance that originated at the wave ‘IV’ low in July/August ‘24.
The peak near 108,000/BT precisely matched the magnitude of its previous (‘22 – ‘24) advance… a trio of similar advances. Since peaks were set, Bitcoin dropped ~15% while Ether plunged ~45%, Solana gave up over 40% and Dogecoin plummeted over 55%… reinforcing a 5th wave top is likely intact.
A daily 21 MAC/21MARC combo in Bitcoin points to February xx – xx as being the next vulnerable time when another sharp sell-off is likely to unfold.”
Bitcoin is dropping as other cryptos plummet, further confirming Bitcoin’s December & January double peaks. The January high was a textbook (weak) wave 5 of V top that was set in perfect sync with MAJOR upside price targets as well as annual cycles (in December ’24). This projected/projects an overall decline into late-Feb/early-March ’25 as the first phase of a major shift.
The daily 21 MAC/21 MARC indicator projects a sharp plunge in Bitcoin in the second half of February.
Ether peaked in December ’24 and projected a sharp, multi-week drop to 2,200/ETH or lower… that should ultimately stretch into early-March ’25 (with an initial low forecast for early-February ’25). It recently attacked that downside price target, during the time when a 1 – 2 week low is most likely, so some consolidation is likely before a late-February sell-off.
On a broader basis, Bitcoin is capable of plunging back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT and stretching an overall multi-month decline into [see publications for details]. Multi-month cycles bottom in [reserved for subscribers].
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave 5 of V Peak Mean for 1Q 2025?
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave V Peak Mean for 2025?
Why are Other Cryptos So Much Weaker… & What Does That Portend?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.