Bitcoin & NQ-100 Focus on Eerie Parallels in 1Q ‘26; Drop into Feb 6/9th Projected!
01-05-26 – “Stock Indices are slowly fulfilling analysis for a Dec ‘25/Jan ’26 shift in which the strongest indices set new highs – while others have already peaked and are setting corresponding lower highs – in preparation for new multi-week declines. ~2-Year & ~4-Year Cycle Progressions converge in January ’26 and pinpoint the ideal time for a cohesive shift (to the downside) to take hold.
Most remain in convincing uptrends while the NQ-100 has been leading a topping process and is tracing out a weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence that could stretch an initial drop into Jan 12 – 16th. While it has not yet confirmed a larger-magnitude correction, that tech-heavy index has been producing multiple initial reversal signals… most of which are still in need of confirmation.
The Nasdaq-100 set a multi-month peak in late-Oct ’25 – fulfilling a myriad of daily, weekly, monthly and even multi-year cycles and timing objectives. On a multi-year basis, that Oct ’25 peak completed the 5th ~3-year advance (since the March ‘09 low) – fulfilling an intriguing series of bull market (wave timing) symmetry with successive rallies in:
- March 2009 – March 2012
- June 2012 – July 2015
- August 2015 – August 2018
- Dec 2018 – Nov 2021
- October 2022 – October 2025
Reinforcing those yearly/monthly ‘cycles’, the NQ-100 reached the extreme of its 33 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ‘23) – high (July ‘24) – high (Feb ‘25) – (high; Oct 20 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression as it was setting that peak. It would need to turn the weekly trend down – which has not yet happened and cannot occur until the weekly close of Jan 16, ’26, at the earliest – in order to validate those timing indicators.
Two of the intermediate Cycle Progressions that helped pinpoint the Oct 28/29th top were a 13 – 14 trading-day CP and its over-arching 27 – 28 trading-day Cycle Progression.
The larger of those perpetuated a 27 – 28 trading-day high (July 3) – high (Aug 13) – high (Sept 22) – (high; Oct 28/29, ’25) Cycle Progression that came back into play on Dec 10th and timed a lower high. [The 13 – 14 & 27 – 28 trading day CPs, that timed both highs, next come into play on January 21/22, ‘26.]
While all these NQ Cycle Progressions & timing indicators were timing a multi-month peak in late-Oct ’25 – and a secondary peak on Dec 10, ’25 – it was the corresponding price action that initially validated them.
On Nov 20th, the NQ-100 closed below its Oct 10th low – triggering the first technical price signal that was needed to validate the Oct 28/29th cycle peak and signal a multi-month reversal lower. Now it needs a daily AND weekly close below its Nov 21st low (24,152/NQH) to elevate this decline and further validate its late-Oct ’25 peak.
The NQ-100 continues to trace out a multi-month top and weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence while increasing the synergy of downside targets near 23,250/NQH. That was just reinforced by the monthly HLS for Jan ’26 – at 23,224/NQH.
That 21 MAC sequence began with the initial, Oct/Nov sell-off that dropped right to the rising weekly 21 Low MAC. That spurred a reactive ‘b’ wave rally back above the weekly 21 High MAC. The Dec 10th high ushered in the ‘c’ or ‘3’ wave decline that just closed below the 21 High MAC.
The key signals would be another weekly close below the 21 Low MAC (~24,700/NQH) and then a reversal (down) of that 21 Low MAC in the ensuing week(s). If the Jan 9th weekly close is below 24,700/NQH, a drop below 23,519/NQH would be needed on Jan 12 – 16, ’26… to fulfill that sequence…
A more significant convergence of weekly timing indicators – including a 10 – 11-week low-low-low-low Cycle Progression and a 50% retracement in time (28 – 29 weeks up, 14 – 15 weeks down) come into play on February 2 – 9, 2026… the culmination of the first 40-day (‘testing’) period of the new year…
Bitcoin & Ether have consolidated after completing initial rallies from their projected lows on Nov 17 – 21st, ’25 (and to ~80,000/BTC). At that time (Nov 17 – 21st), Bitcoin fulfilled multi-month projections for a drop into the week of Nov 17 – 21st, ’25 AND a plunge to ~80,000/BTC during that primary decline. That created an initial multi-month low and ushered in the current consolidation.
They have extended their rebounds, making it likely that cycles on Jan 5 – 9th – including a ~3-month/~90-degree move from the Oct 6th peak – will time a multi-week high. Before that takes hold, however, Bitcoin could spike up to 98,500 – 99,000/BTC and Ether to 3400 – 3450/ETH.
In the case of Ether, that would also fulfill a .618 rebound in time (12 weeks down, 7 weeks up) and set the stage for a subsequent 4 – 6 week decline.“
Bitcoin & cryptos are focused on the likelihood for a more impactful decline to take hold after stock index Cycle Progressions peak in late-Jan ’26. Bitcoin fulfilled early-October sell signals & projections for sharp declines into Nov 17 – 21, ’25 (and to ~80,000/BT)… and is preparing for a second plunge in Jan/Feb ’26 – potentially coinciding with NQ-100 analysis for a drop into Feb 2 – 9 (greatest synergy = Feb 5 – 9, ’26).
Almost a year ago, in February ’25, INSIIDE Track highlighted an intriguing set of ‘eerie parallels’ that were/are expected to reach fruition in 2026 (likely in 1Q/2Q ’26) and would be validated by an initial plunge in crypto prices in 4Q 2025. That would set the stage for a second drop surrounding late-Jan ‘26 – all leading into a unique monthly Cycle Progression low in 2Q ‘26. ~70K is the next (minimum) downside target… with two other targets well below that.
The initial plunge in Bitcoin was projected to be an omen of what is likely to follow in 1Q ‘26 – in line with stock index 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions. One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that were forecast to turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 – and accelerate lower in 1Q ’26 – as a ~4-year cycle goes through a major downward shift:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Can Bitcoin Still Reach ~97K Before Next Plunge?
How Did Nov ‘25 Bitcoin & Stock Index Sell-offs Presage Jan/Feb. ’26 Sell-off?
Will ‘Eerie Parallels’ Emerge in Feb/March ’26… Right on Schedule?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.