Bitcoin & Ether Plunge into Early-Feb Cycle Low… New Drop into early-March Likely.
02/05/25 – The Crypto Crescendo… and Aftermath – “Cryptos are steadily confirming ongoing analysis for a surge in 4Q 2024 followed by a downturn beginning in January 2025. That was projected to spur an initial drop into the period of Feb 5 – 10th (many cryptos just plummeted into February 4th with more downside possible) and ultimately into early-March ’25.
At its peak, Bitcoin fulfilled all of what was expected from a wave ‘V’ rally – a culminating advance that originated at the wave ‘IV’ low in July/August ‘24 in precise sync with its ~10-month high-low-low-low-(low; July/Aug ’24) Cycle Progression.
That spurred a multi-month surge into Nov/Dec 2024 – the same time of year in which Bitcoin set major highs in 2017 & 2021 and intervening lows in 2018 & 2022. An overlapping ~10.5-month/~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression allowed for a final divergent spike high in January, which took place on January 20/21st.
In doing so, Bitcoin fulfilled another form of wave similarity – rallying for the same magnitude ($55,00 – $60,000/BT) as it did in March ‘20 – April ‘21 AND in Nov ‘22 – March ‘24. The peak near 108,000/BT precisely matched the magnitude of its previous (‘22 – ‘24) advance… a trio of similar advances.
That crescendo was/is expected to time a major peak in cryptos and occurred precisely with a major bullish fundamental – the inauguration of President Trump. Markets usually top on good news and bottom on bad news.
From the intraday peaks to Monday’s intraday low, Bitcoin dropped ~15% in two weeks. However, that is nothing compared to the losses in other cryptos as Ether plunged ~45%, Solana gave up over 40% and Dogecoin plummeted over 55%. It sure looks like a 5th wave top is intact… which brings us to the correlation between cryptos and equities…[reserved for subscribers]…
The Dollar Index surged to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/DXH) to begin the week and reversed lower without turning its daily trend up. That signaled a secondary high and projected a drop back to/below its late-January low.
It has since retreated to weekly support and needs a daily close below 107.15/DXH to turn the new intra-month trend down and display additional weakness.
The Euro is the inverse and retested its January low while attacking its weekly HLS and monthly support. Similar to the Dollar Index (inversely), the Euro recently completed its largest rally since August – and the largest of its entire decline from that peak – creating an intermediate 4-Shadow signal.
The new intra-month trend needs to clarify if the subsequent decline is recently complete… or still unfolding. A daily close above 1.0464/ECH is needed to turn the intra-month trend up and signal that a new multi-week low is in place…
A low at any time in this 2-month period would also perpetuate a 28 – 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression.
The Yen has produced initial signs of a low and confirmed a multi-week bottom. This was expected to spur a quick surge to .6640 – .6700/JYH, where multiple weekly & monthly LHRs converge with monthly resistance and upside wave targets. That is now unfolding and could be fulfilled at any time.
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) – but did not close above its mid-December (intraday) high, ushering in the potential for a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak.
Meanwhile, Ether had peaked in December after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak – while completing a ~3-year low (4Q ’18) – high (4Q ’21) – (high; 4Q 2024) Cycle Progression. It has already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak.
A quick, sharp drop was expected to unfold leading into this week… and has been initially fulfilled with several cryptos plunging in recent weeks. More downside is still possible… an overall decline into early-March ’25 is still expected.”
Bitcoin is dropping as other cryptos plummet, further confirming Bitcoin’s December & January double peaks. The January high was a textbook (weak) wave 5 of V top that was set in perfect sync with MAJOR upside price targets as well as annual cycles (in December ’24). This projected/projects an overall decline into early-March ’25 as the first phase of a major shift.
Ether peaked in December ’24 and projected a sharp, multi-week drop to 2,200/ETH or lower… that should ultimately stretch into early-March ’25 (with an initial low forecast for early-February ’25). It is now attacking that downside target, during the time when a 1 – 2 week low is most likely, so some consolidation is likely.
On a broader basis, Bitcoin is capable of plunging back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT and stretching an overall multi-month decline into [see publications for details].
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave 5 of V Peak Mean for 1Q 2025?
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave V Peak Mean for 2025?
Why are Other Cryptos So Much Weaker… & What Does That Portend?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.