Bitcoin & Ether Poised for 1 – 2 Week Rally into Late-Oct ’22 Cycle High.
10/12/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Bitcoin has slowly rallied after completing the multi-week period (on Sept 23) when a 32 – 34-week low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression – and a ~15-month low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression – was projected to time a multi-month bottom. Bitcoin & Ether tested and held synergistic support at 17,800 – 18,400/BT & 1180 – 1230/ETH – the ideal level for multi-month bottoms.
The action of the past month is another textbook example of the ‘Rock, Paper, Scissors’ or ‘a x b = c’ analogy often described with respect to fiat (debt-based) vs metals (hard) vs digital (crypto) currency. When the Dollar was accelerating higher, both cryptos and metals were plunging.
Now that the Dollar Index is showing signs of topping – BUT NOT yet entering a convincing sell-off – cryptos and metals have taken turns at 1 – 2 week rallies… at different times. The only way they could both surge together, if this analogy is accurate and holds true, is if the Dollar Index enters a sharper decline. Then, there would be ‘room’ for both cryptos and metals to rally.
Both metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum & Palladium) and cryptos (Bitcoin, Ether, etc.) are set up with the potential for new 1 – 2 week rallies… so a Dollar decline might be around the corner. And the corresponding Dollar peak – immediately before that decline – could coincide with the CPI Report, in that same paradox described at the opening of this Alert.
Bitcoin is now entering a ~2-week period when a new rally is more likely. As discussed in July/Aug ’22, Bitcoin has a ~20-week low-low-low-high-high-high Cycle Progression that helped pinpoint the mid-Aug ’22 peak. Based on the magnitude of that cycle, it should hold for at least 4 – 6 weeks and could hold longer. That has now been fulfilled.
Equally important is what it bodes for the future. The next phase of that ~20-week cycle projects a future peak for early-Jan ’23. In between, an intervening high could be seen at the ~10-week point in late-Oct ‘22 – creating a corroborating ~10-week high-high-high Cycle Progression that would also portend a future peak in early-Jan ’23.
As a result, a 2 – 4 week peak is most likely on Oct. 24 – 31, ’22… In order to turn the daily 21 High MAC up, Bitcoin needed to rally above 22,718 today. Tomorrow, due to the plunging 21 MARC (the ‘replacement calculator’ in that 21 MAC), Bitcoin only needs to rally above 20,499/BTC or 20,540/BTZ to turn the daily 21 MAC up. On Oct 17, it only needs to rally above 19,930/BTZ.
After rallying in early-Oct (but not turning its intra-month trend up), Bitcoin sold off to its early-Oct low but has not turned the intra-month trend down. That places it in a good position to rally back to the early-month high of 20,480/BTZ. If it gives a daily close above 20,480/BTZ, Bitcoin would turn its intra-month trend up AND close above its daily 21 High MAC. A few points higher and it would also turn the direction of the 21 High MAC up – a trio of bullish signals into month-end.
Reinforcing all of this, Bitcoin has subtly triggered an important trend line break on the latest weekly closes. Since the Nov ’21 peak, there is a descending trendline between its Nov ’21, late-Mar ’22 & mid-Aug ’22 peaks. The early-Sept ’22 rally spiked above that trendline but did not give a weekly close above it.
Finally, on Sept 30 (the week that Bitcoin’s cycles were forecast to turn bullish) and on Oct 7, Bitcoin gave successive weekly closes above that 10+-month trendline – an important break. Following that break, Bitcoin pulled back to its descending trendline (resistance turned into support), its intra-month low, and its daily 21 Low MAC while fulfilling a ~13 trading-day low-low-(low) Cycle Progression… Since then, they have pulled back and set the stage for a subsequent 2+-week rally.”
Bitcoin has plummeted after fulfilling projections for a 5th of 5th wave peak in Nov ‘21 – in sync with a ~4-Year low (2009) – high (Nov/Dec ’13) – high (Nov/Dec ’17) – high (Nov/Dec ’21 Major Top) Cycle Progression. That also fulfilled the multi-year outlook for a major advance into 2021 when Currency War Cycles culminated and when the US Dollar would begin to rally and suppress cryptocurrency for 1 – 2 years. A major 1 – 2 year downside target remains at ~13,800/BT.
Bitcoin was projected to plunge into (at least) Sept ’22 – when a multi-month low would be most likely. Since fulfilling that, Bitcoin & Ether have been forecast to see an overall rebound into late-Oct/early-Nov ’22 – when the next multi-month high is most likely.
How Long Should Sept ’22 Cycle Low Hold?
Why is Early-Nov ’22 Decisive Time for Cryptos??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.