Bitcoin & Ether Poised for Lows & Rebound into early-Nov ’22.
09/14/22 Weekly Re-Lay Alert – “Bitcoin is in the midst of a multi-week period (Sept 6 – 23) when a 32 – 34-week low-low-low-low Cycle Progression – dating back to the March ’20 bottom – recurs and is projected to time a multi-month low.
The month of Sept ’22 is also when a ~15-month low-low-low-(low) Cycle Progression recurs and has been forecast – since late-2021 – to time the next major bottom in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has initially fulfilled both of these cycles but has not yet confirmed a bottom is intact.
It is fulfilling the potential for a multi-month bottom after retracing .786 of its Mar ’20 – Nov ’21 advance (extreme retracement; 2DGR) – reaching 17,830/BTC, a major, 1 – 2 year downside target. Bitcoin futures spiked to slight new lows last week (fulfilling the minimum necessary for weekly & monthly cycles to be validated) and then reversed higher – quickly surging over 20% before peaking at monthly resistance.
It needs a daily close above 22,600/BTZ to turn the daily trend up**, confirm a multi-week bottom, and project a surge above 26,000/BT in the ensuing days or weeks. Similar to stocks, Bitcoin & Ether turned the intra-month trends up and surged to monthly resistance – fulfilling that signal and ushering in a likely 3 – 5 day peak. They have since pulled back to the month-opening range where initial support is being found.
(**It rallied enough to twice neutralize its daily downtrend but not enough to turn its daily trend or the direction of its daily 21 MAC up… so a bottom is still forming and in need of confirmation.)
If a low was/is set on Sept 7 – 16, Bitcoin could be entering another 8 – 9 week rally (the third of 2022 – providing another example of wave equivalence on either a price or time basis) that would initially peak on the 1-year anniversary of its Nov ’21 high.
Related markets, like Ether, remain well above their lows after more than doubling in July/Aug. (It is still about 75% above the level of the June ’22 low.)”
Bitcoin, in Nov ’21, fulfilled projections for a 5th of 5th wave peak in sync with a ~4-Year low (2009) – high (Nov/Dec ’13) – high (Nov/Dec ’17) – high (Nov/Dec ’21 Major Top) Cycle Progression. That also fulfilled the multi-year outlook for a major advance into 2021 when Currency War Cycles culminated and when the US Dollar would begin to rally and suppress the Crypto market.
Since then, Bitcoin was projected to plunge into Sept ’22 – when the next multi-month low was expected. Critical support near 18,000/BT is holding and could spur a 1 – 2 month rebound into early-Nov ’22 – when the next multi-month high is most likely. Major 1 – 2 year downside target remains at ~13,800/BT.
How Long Should Sept ’22 Cycle Low Hold?
Could Additional Dollar Strength Impact Potential Upside?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.