Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks Reinforce July ’25 Cycle Highs; Focus on 4Q ’25 for Downturn.

08-13-25 – “The Dollar Index has declined after surging into August 1st as part of a larger-magnitude upside correction (to the prevailing downtrend).  That surge saw the Dollar attack its weekly LHR – on August 1st – which is holding.

Based on its intra-month downtrend, the Dollar Index projected an extension of its decline into mid-month (now), portending a low that would also fulfill a ~3-week low-low-low-(low; Aug 14/15) Cycle Progression while attacking the convergence of weekly & monthly support at 97.23 – 97.45/DXU.

That is occurring now so a low could take hold at any time.

The Dollar Index is also riding along its flattening daily 40 Low MAC but would need to trigger a daily close above 98.05/DXU to turn that 40 MAC more bullish.  A daily close above 98.50/DXU would be a more convincing bullish signal – turning its daily 21 MAC positive and its intra-month trend neutral.

On balance, the Dollar Index is still expected to rally to ~102.00/DX…

On an intra-year basis, the Dollar Index is also exhibiting other signs that a low should take hold near current levels…

The Dollar Index began the current ‘Natural Year’ with a sharp decline during the first month – from March 20th into April 19th.  For all intents and purposes, it has traded sideways since then – only briefly spiking below that ‘Natural Year Opening Range’ in late-June/early-July before quickly rebounding and re-entering that range.

It is currently retesting its April ’25 low (97.45/DXU) – the low of that ‘year-opening range’ and the most decisive support for the intra-year trend on a Natural Year basis (from Vernal equinox 2025 until Vernal equinox 2026).

As long as it holds that support – on a weekly close basis – the Dollar Index would reinforce developing resilience and portend a rally back toward its Natural Year-opening range high.

The Euro is the inverse and has rallied after dropping to its weekly HLS while testing and holding its rising weekly 21 High MAC on August 1st.  The Euro is slowly validating analysis for a multi-month peak – after tracing out a 5-wave advance from January into early-July ’25.  That could lead to a higher-magnitude (multi-month) correction.

If it continues to confirm that peak, the Euro could ultimately retrace to ~1.1150/EC – its 4th wave of lesser degree support and also a part of its Natural Year opening range.  (The corresponding FXE ETF has synergistic support near 102.00.)…

Bitcoin & Ether remain in uptrends with Bitcoin spiking above its July ’25 cycle peak – and nearing major upside targets near 127,000/BTC – as Ether has surged to its 6 – 12-month primary upside price target and beyond.  Both are fulfilling (or just fulfilled) what was described throughout the month of July:

“Bitcoin & Ether rallied to new highs with Ether surging after turning its weekly trend up.  Its most significant upside target – and 6 – 12 month resistance zone – is at 4,100 – 4,200/ETH.  Bitcoin could spike up to ~127,000 – its yearly SPR, monthly LHR & prior month’s & current week’s HHR – before an intermediate peak becomes more likely.”

Bitcoin would show no signs of peaking until a daily close below 112,000/BTC.“

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Bitcoin is maintaining positive weekly & monthly trends and projecting an overall advance to 125 – 127,000/BTC, where a host of major & multi-year upside targets, wave objectives & intra-year extreme levels collide.  July ’25 Cycle Progressions portended a 1 – 2-month high in Bitcoin & crypto stocks but price action is the key factor as to what to expect in 4Q 2025.

In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of parallels that should/would come into focus in 4Q 2025, when related cycles are projecting a major shift in many financial and currency-related markets… as well as stock indexes, interest rates and energy markets.

One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reversed:

17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts

 

Will Bitcoin Reach 127,000 Before Decisive Peak?

Could 2025 See Major Top in Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks?

Why is Seismic Shift Likely in 4Q 2025?

   

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.