Bitcoin Fulfills Upside Target; Projects Quick Drop & New Rally into February ‘24.
01/11/24 – “Bitcoin & Ether spiked above their late-December cycle highs in anticipation of, and reaction to, the SEC ruling on Bitcoin ETFs. That allowed Bitcoin to spike up to ~48,000/BT and set its highest daily close at 47,985/BTH (47,108/BTC) on January 8, fulfilling its multi-month buy signals from mid-September ’23 & mid-October ’23 while reaching extreme upside targets for this phase of the crypto rally:
09-29-23 – “Bitcoin & Ether spiked lower into Sept 11, perpetuating a ~3-month low (Mar 10 – 14) – low (Jun 10 – 14) – (low; Sept 10 – 14) Cycle Progression while adhering to the wave structure and weekly/monthly trend setup that has been described since the mid-July ‘23 peak.
Following that peak, price action projected a drop below the mid-June ‘23 lows in Ether and a drop to – but not below – the mid-June ‘23 lows in Bitcoin. That is exactly what transpired… From a price and wave perspective, that is a bullish setup which perpetuates the range trading and wave structure that has prevailed in Bitcoin.
On a lower magnitude, Ether mimicked what it did in 2022 with another pair of equal-magnitude and equal-duration declines (‘c = a’ wave structure) from its mid-April ‘23 peak. Both sell-offs lasted ~9 weeks or about ~2 months and both dropped ~450/ETH (high close – low close) or ~500/ETH (high – low) into the Sept 11, ‘23 low.
As a result, these cryptos may have completed their corrections… Bitcoin needs a weekly close above 27,500/BTC to turn its weekly trend up and validate that. It just generated a weekly 2 Close Reversal Combo buy signal that should help spur new buying.
Bitcoin is adhering to its range trading in ~5,000/BT increments, setting a pair of lows near 25,000/BT (after setting successive highs near 25,000/BT in Aug ‘22 & Feb ‘23). If it can hold this support and head back to ~30,000/BT, Bitcoin would likely break above that level and surge to ~35,000/BT as part of this next multi-month advance… that 35,000/BT level could be broken and lead to a surge to ~45,000 in 2024.”
12/05/23 INSIIDE Track Update and 12-06-23 & 12-09-23 Weekly Re-Lays – “Bitcoin has nearly reached its multi-month upside target – at ~45,000/BT (see Oct., Nov. & Dec. ’23 INSIIDE Tracks) – and could spike up to 47 – 48,000/BTC before a peak is seen.”
Now that all these upside price and wave targets have been fulfilled, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs could provide a ‘sell the fact’ reaction back to their respective mid-November lows – the 4th wave of lesser degree support on the way up. (As much as these ETFs ‘provide the masses with an easier way to buy Bitcoin’, they also provide institutions an easier way to sell short Bitcoin.)
The fulfillment of these 3 – 6 month upside targets – at 47 – 48,000/BTC – is a good place to lighten up on long positions and wait for a pullback. However, these cryptos have not yet generated any form of confirmed sell signal. If a pullback materializes quick enough, it would still allow plenty of time for a subsequent rally into multi-month cycles converging in February ’24 (Ether) and Feb/March ’24 (Bitcoin).”
Bitcoin & Ether have fulfilled analysis for major advances from their Nov ’22 lows (projected multi-year lows) into late-2023/early-2024. Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected an overall surge, capable of spiking as high as ~48,000/BT before a 1 – 2 month peak would become most likely. That has been reached as multiple upside objectives have also been attained.
This sets the stage for a quick, sharp correction in Bitcoin, capable of reaching ~38,400/BT – the level of the November ’23 high and a key level of ‘resistance turned into support’ as well as monthly support… followed by a new surge into February 2024. (See latest publications for specific targets and details; Refer to January 11, 2024 The Bridge – Crypto Currency War Continues for updates on overall outlook and potential for additional rally into February/March 2024.).
Will Dollar Rally (from Late-December Cycle Low) Weigh on Cryptos?
Why Should Bitcoin Test & Hold Support Near 38,400?
What are Next Upside Objectives for Cryptos?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.