Bitcoin & Stocks Poised for Initial Highs on Oct 17/18th; Higher Highs in November ’24

10/16/24 – ‘Crypto Correlation: Coincidence or Causality? – “The October 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge focused on Currency War cycles and the potential for Bitcoin to see an October surge into a November ’24 high…

At the same time, stock indexes were projecting a similar October surge with small and mid-cap indexes expected to lead the way.  The action of Bitcoin is often correlated to the action of the Russell 2000 and this was/is another instance where their respective outlooks and resulting action have moved in close lockstep with one another.

Whether that is coincidence or causality – or a little of both – matters little.  It is always important to analyze each market on its own merits and technicals and to avoid the temptation to trade one market off the outlook for another.  With that said, it is a good time to delve back into all the related analysis…

Stock Indices remain positive with the DJTA, Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 validating analysis for them to lead the latest advance, initially projecting a new surge from October 7/8th into (ideally) October 17/18th (with a subsequent high forecast for late-October).

The DJTA traced out a textbook ‘a-b-c’ decline without turning its daily trend down, signaling it was poised to embark on a new rally… This leads into the time when the primary (geometric) cycle in the DJIA comes back into play – on October 17/18th…

At the same time, the S+P Midcap 400 broke out higher in fulfillment of ongoing analysis.  It remains on track for a future peak on October 24 – 31st.  However, that might not be the final peak for that index since it has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.

Similar to what occurred in June/July 2024, this could be showing that another push into smaller & mid-sized stocks is unfolding.  Interestingly, the S+P Midcap has its greatest synergy of monthly & weekly cycles converging in late-November ’24.

If a multi-month high were set at that time, it would fulfill the following cycles & timing indicators:

  • ~13-month/~56-week low-low-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
  • ~8-month/34 – 35-week high (late-March ’22) – high (late-Nov ’22) – high (late-July ’23) – high (late-March ’24) – (high; late-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression.
  • ~4-month/~17 – 18-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
  • ~2-month/~8 – 9-week high-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
  • ~15-week low-low-high-(high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression.
  • ~5-week low-low-low-high*- (high; late-November ’24) Cycle Progression…  *if the S+P Midcap rallies into October 14 – 18th.
  • Back-to-back-to-back-to-back ~13-month rallies (Dec ’18 – Jan ’20, Mar ’20 – Apr ’21, June ’22 – July ’23, Oct ’23 – November 2024).

So it is possible, if it emerges as expected, that a late-October peak would only be a penultimate one… with the ultimate IDX peak waiting until late-Nov ’24.

Meanwhile, the NQ-100 maintains wave targets near the July ’24 peak – around 21,200/NQZ.  New monthly resistance concurs and is reinforced by the recent lows creating an Intermediate LLH in the vicinity.  A rally to that level is likely…

Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing intermediate bottoming signals with Bitcoin turning its intra-month trend up.  That increases the likelihood for rallies into November 2024 – the next phase of the ~8-month (& midpoint of the ~16-month) Cycle Progressions that timed the March ’24 top.

Bitcoin could see a quick surge to its latest weekly LHRs (~68,900/BTC & 70,084/BTC)…  [The October 3, 2024 issue of The Bridge elaborated on this outlook.]

Corroborating all this, Bitcoin is expected to set a peak (at or above its late-September high) ideally on Nov 1 – 15, ’24, when the related 34 – 35-week cycle recurs.  That would also complete a .618 rebound in time (21 wks down, 13 wks up).

An initial peak is expected on October 17th or 18th.

Gold & Silver rallied, with Gold attacking its high, after dropping to their rising daily 21 Low MACs with Silver maintaining its positive daily trend structure while retracing 50% of its Sept/Oct rally and bottoming where it previously peaked in late-August (resistance turned into support and decisive range-trading support at ~30.50/SIZ).

That projected a new advance to follow with Gold now nearing its weekly Raw SPR and LHR

Gold is fulfilling the 6 – 12-month outlook for an advance into the second half of October – the latest phase of an ongoing ~1-year/~12.5-month high-high-low (Aug ’21) – low (Sept ’22) – low (Oct ’23) – (high; late-Oct/early-Nov 2024) Cycle Progression that has timed many of Gold’s most significant turning points.

In the ideal scenario, Gold would extend its rally into early-November, the next phase of its ~5-week/34 – 37-day low-high-high-high-(high; Oct 30 – Nov 4) Cycle Progression, as Silver spikes up to ~34.00/SIZ and fulfills the ideal objective for a wave ‘v’ of ‘5’ of ‘III’ wave peak…

However, with both metals now entering a multi-week period when a major top is most likely, price action needs to clarify exactly when and where those peaks (and reversals lower) are taking hold.  It could now occur at any time.

Metals continue to reinforce analysis that projected major, multi-year lows to take hold in late-2022 and lead to a multi-year advance.  That has been unfolding since then.  Ultimately, these trends and cycles could spur higher prices into 2027 – when major cycles converge.”


Bitcoin is reinforcing projections for a surge to new (all-time) highs leading into November 2024 (Nov 11 – 15th = idea time for peak with greatest synergy of daily cycles converging on November 13, 2024.).  Stock indexes are corroborating that outlook, projected to first rally into the coming days (October 17/18th) and ultimately into late-November 2024 – with small and mid-caps likely leading the November surge.

This reinforces the overall outlook for 2024 and is providing powerful clues about related markets and events.  With Gold cycles peaking in late-October ’24, the ideal time for an accelerated surge in Bitcoin is after that (see ‘Rock, Paper, Scissors’ analogy)… when ‘anti-Dollar’ competition is reduced.  A final rally in Gold & Silver is now (likely) unfolding and could peak in the coming week(s).

(Refer to October 3, 2024 The Bridge – Currency War: Rock, Paper Scissors and other special updates and reports for additional analysis.)

 

What Would a Bitcoin Surge into mid-November ‘24 Reveal?

How High Does Bitcoin Wave Structure Project for Wave V?

Does Projected Stock Surge into late-November Corroborate?

 

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.