Bitcoin Holds July ’25 Cycle Peak; Crypto Stocks Diverge; Multi-Week Low Imminent.
08-28-25 – “Outlook 2025 – Crypto Canaries?
Last month’s issue highlighted a loose relationship between two key markets. It examined the frequency of concurrent moves in key stock indexes (often the Russell 2000) and Bitcoin and what they might be revealing with those adjacent moves. As stressed then, these two do not move in perfect synchronicity and there is often a lag or lead:
7-30-25 – “Two specific market complexes tend to move in tandem. They might not rally (or decline) at the same rate and for the same duration of time during each move, but their overall trends and turning points tend to pivot in close lockstep with one another… Those two are stock indexes & cryptocurrency…
July 2025 Convergence
For the past 1 – 2 years, the focus in Bitcoin has been on two potential cycle highs in 2025 – one in July ‘25 and the other in Nov/Dec ‘25. Price action leading into and out of the July ‘25 cycle should add critical clues about what to expect in late-2025.
Corroborating that, Bitcoin possessed a reinforcing ~11-month Cycle Progression AND a ~6-month Cycle Progression – both also focused on July ‘25.”
One of the most common justifications for moves in Bitcoin (aside from any current crypto surprises) is the preponderance of, OR lack of, geopolitical stability. When geopolitics get a bit more challenging, Bitcoin often sells off and waits for more happy times.
(Ironically, Gold is often the opposite and rallies during those periods of uncertainty.)
Bitcoin surged into July ’25 and set its highest weekly & monthly close during that month – fulfilling a myriad of monthly cycles. It retested that high in August but did not give a daily or weekly close above it – validating the July ’25 cycle peak…
From a wave perspective, the outlook was/is that Bitcoin could ultimately drop back to ~80,000/BTC in the coming months – where it previously found support in Feb – April ’25… creating what is now its ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a final, wave ‘5’ advance). That is both a corrective wave target AND a pivotal correction support level.
Bitcoin rallied into the Trump/Putin Summit in Alaska on the hopes and fantasies of what was (not) to be. It has dropped sharply ever since… providing a more accurate assessment of what is really going on. At the moment, Bitcoin is not overly thrilled with the geopolitical goings-on.
Could stock indexes soon follow?
July 2025 Bitcoin Cycles
For the past 1 – 2 years, the focus in Bitcoin has been on two potential cycle highs in 2025 – one in July ‘25 and the other in Nov/Dec ‘25. It has fulfilled the first of those and is signaling a multi-month top.
It fulfilled the July ‘25 cycle peak with great precision. The first time frame to watch for a potential multi-week low is Sept 8 – 12th, the next phase of an ~11-week high-low-low-(low; Sept 8 – 15, ‘25) Cycle Progression in Bitcoin. The weekly trend pattern is setting up to corroborate that.
The big question – and a major determining factor in what to expect after that – is how low Bitcoin makes it by mid-Sept ‘25.
And speaking of geopolitical uncertainty…
2025 – 2029 – 40YC & 80YC Aftermath
For over a decade, INSIIDE Track has explained why – from a cyclical and sociological perspective – the culmination of the 80-Year Cycle of War in late-2021 – late-2025 would overlap/intensify the latest phase of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency War and lead to at least two primary consequences:
- A unified battle against the global hegemony of the US Dollar.
- A related isolation of the US on the world stage.
In walks the Law of Unintended Consequences!
In the 1980’s, a major agricultural & trade shift took place as a result of the US Grain Embargo against the Soviet Union.
After another 40-Year Cycle… the more things change the more they stay the same.
In the previous occurrence, the aggressive actions of the USSR – in 1979 – were the justification for this embargo. At the time of its initiation, even the American Farm Bureau (who would lose a major source of grain exports) was in favor due to the perceived benefit of selling more product to Americans.
Fast-forward 40 years and the first round of major tariffs are levied against China in 2018 & 2019 – due to their own aggressive actions (history rhymes… it does not repeat). A few years later, those tariffs are escalated and US producers are again on board.
LUC (Law of Unintended Consequences)
Unfortunately, that is not where the story ends – presently or 40 years ago…
In the early-1980’s, the US won some small battles with that embargo… but ultimately lost the war (at least for American farmers). The Soviet Union quickly pivoted, out of national survival necessity, and directed the majority of its grain purchases elsewhere (mostly South America).
The embargo was lifted in 1981, but the damage was already done. It would take decades for American farmers to truly recover… and many of them did not. Inadvertently, the US played matchmaker between the USSR and several other nations – a relationship that continues to this day.
In the 2020’s, there are many unique parallels in the midst of the subtle distinctions (embargo vs tariffs, USSR vs China/India, etc.).
Not surprisingly, this has already thrust many nations into the waiting arms of China and a repeat of the 1980’s is slowly taking hold as new/revitalized relationships form. The 40-Year Cycle lives on.
On a literal basis, they will all be gathering in China on Aug 31/Sept 1st for the latest meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Council – one of the myriad of multi-global alliances created to counterbalance the influence of the USA.
The SCO has been around for 25 – 30 years (in different forms) but this year’s meeting is already witnessing a warming of relations between China & India – wreaking havoc on what US leaders have carefully created over the past two decades.
This is just the first step. If cycles have anything to say about it, 2025 – 2029 will be the time of great (some new, some revitalized) global unions – contrasting what previously took place in 1945 – 1949, following the last phase of the 80-Year Cycle of War. At that time, it was Western-based entities & unions. This time, the focus turns East.“
Bitcoin is holding July ’25 cycle highs, corroborating related analysis for a 1 – 2 month top at that time. Its weekly & monthly trends remain positive, leaving open the potential for an ultimate spike up to 125 – 127,000/BTC, where a host of major & multi-year upside targets, wave objectives & intra-year extreme levels collide. That is likely to occur after intermediate cycles bottom in the first half of September ‘25.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of parallels that should/would come into focus in 4Q 2025, when related cycles are projecting a major shift in many financial and currency-related markets… as well as stock indexes, interest rates and energy markets. That is when the first big sell-off in Bitcoin is most likely… potentially after one final spike high.
One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reversed:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
Will Bitcoin Reach 127,000 Before Decisive Peak?
Could 2025 See Major Top in Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks?
Why is Seismic Shift Likely in 4Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.