Bitcoin & Stocks Moving Together; July & 4Q 2025 Cycle Highs in Focus.
07-30-25 – “Outlook 2025 – Joined at the Hip?
Two specific market complexes tend to move in tandem. They might not rally (or decline) at the same rate and for the same duration of time during each move, but their overall trends and turning points tend to pivot in close lockstep with one another… Those two are stock indexes & cryptocurrency.
Tail Wagging Dog? Dog Wagging Tail?
There have been many theories about a possible connection between the two but that does not necessarily mean that one leads the other… or vice-versa. It is always important to remember:
Coincidence Does Not Mean Causality.
With similarly-trending markets like these, there is often a third factor – a ‘driver’ that is influencing both markets in a similar manner… even as their independent fundamentals govern day-to-day & week-to-week movement within those overriding trends.
That could be as simple as the general economic outlook or the (inverse) movement of the US Dollar. It could, and likely is, more nuanced than that. In reality, the exact relationship is not important. In fact, paying too much attention to a perceived correlation between two markets can be detrimental.
And then there’s the topic of cycles….
July 2025 Convergence
For the past 1 – 2 years, the focus in Bitcoin has been on two potential cycle highs in 2025 – one in July ‘25 and the other in Nov/Dec ‘25. Price action leading into and out of the July ‘25 cycle should add critical clues about what to expect in late-2025.
Corroborating that, Bitcoin possessed a reinforcing ~11-month Cycle Progression AND a ~6-month Cycle Progression – both also focused on July ‘25.
At the same time, Stock Index cycles have also been focused on late-July ‘25 as a decisive period – when a multi-month top has the best chance of taking hold, in line with related price analysis.
When equities bottomed in early-April ‘25, they fulfilled a myriad of downside price objectives and cycle lows. Specific technical indicators, generated at that time, predicted subsequent rallies to new all-time highs in the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100.
The July 24, ‘25 issue of The Bridge (a Weekly Re-Lay bonus publication) – ‘Currency War: Rock, Paper, Scissors IV’ – updated those Cycle Progressions and re-examined the unique ‘correlation’ between the US Dollar (fiat currency), Gold & Silver (hard currency) and cryptos (digital currency).
It also described this frequent connection with equity markets – the currency-related ‘Fourth Estate’ (keeping currency moves in check). Excerpts of that analysis are copied on pages 7 & 9.“
Bitcoin is maintaining positive weekly & monthly trends and projecting an overall advance to 125 – 127,000/BTC, where a host of major & multi-year upside targets, wave objectives & intra-year extreme levels collide. July ’25 Cycle Progressions should time (initial?) high in Bitcoin & crypto stocks but price action is the key factor as to what to expect in 4Q 2025.
Will Bitcoin Reach 127,000 Before Decisive Peak?
Could 2025 See Major Top in Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks?
Why is Seismic Shift Likely in 4Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.