Bitcoin & Ether Enter Topping Process; Late-December Dollar Cycle Lows Corroborate.
12/16/23 – “The Dollar did see a new decline as the Euro & Yen rallied. Those moves could ultimately stretch into late-December. Gold & Silver surged from intermediate support levels but need to turn their daily trends up to show additional strength…
The Dollar Index resumed its decline after testing & holding its weekly LHR (103.82/DXH) and descending daily 21 High MAC last week, projecting a new sell-off into the next phase of its ~4-week cycle in late-Dec ’23.
That is also when a ~24-week low-low-low-(low; Dec 26 – 29, ’23) Cycle Progression would mature. Corroborating that, the Dollar Index just tested and held its weekly HLS (102.18/DXH), portending a 1 – 2 month low in the ensuing 1 – 2 weeks.
The Euro surged back toward its recent high, testing and holding its weekly LHR in the process. The projects a peak in the subsequent week(s). It is moving through a weekly 21 MAC transition that could corroborate its positive weekly trend action…
The Euro entered the weekly 21 MAC in mid-November, rallied and briefly closed above it, and then retraced back to the descending weekly 21 Low MAC – closing 1 tick above it on Dec 8th. That spurred a new rally this week with the Euro closing above its weekly 21 High MAC.
If it can turn the direction of that average up, in the coming weeks, the Euro would complete that bullish sequence and further confirm the October low. It would take an intra-week rally above 1.1268/ECH in the coming week, or above 1.1159/ECH in either of the two ensuing weeks to turn that average up.
All of that closely aligns with when weekly & monthly cycles converge [reserved for subscribers]…
The Yen surged again, after retracing 50% of its initial advance while retesting its month-opening range. On balance, it is expected to rally into mid-Jan ’24… with an intervening mid-Dec peak likely.
Bitcoin & Ether fulfilled projections for rallies into Dec 8 – 15, ’23, the perpetuation of 36 – 38-week high-high-high-(high) & ~13-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progressions. Bitcoin attacked its multi-month upside target – at ~45,000/BT (see Oct., Nov. & Dec. ’23 INSIIDE Tracks) while Ether fulfilled related targets at 2,350 – 2,450/ETH…
The Dollar Index dropped to new lows after turning its intra-month trend down. While an initial low could be seen now (mid-month), daily cycles argue for another sell-off into late-December. The Euro is the inverse and, along with the Yen could set initial highs now (Dec 14 – 18) with higher highs likely by month/year-end…
Gold & Silver are closely adhering to their 4Q 2023 outlook. They sold off sharply after precisely fulfilling upside projections, spiking to new highs on Dec 4th – with Gold perfectly fulfilling its upside wave target at 2152/GCG (high was 2152.3/GCG) – and setting what would likely be multi-week highs.
During the ensuing sell-off, Gold dropped right to its weekly HLS and held, setting the stage for a low this past week (the inverse to how the Nov 27 – Dec 1 signaled a spike high on December 4th) which became more likely when Gold dropped right to monthly support and held after retracing 50% of its October – December rally.
That low came as Gold was spiking below and reversing higher from its ascending weekly 21 High MAC. It triggered an outside-day/2 Close Reversal buy signal at 1997.3/GCG and surged on Fed news about future interest rate cuts.
However, they would not confirm their December 13th lows (that perpetuated a ~30-day cycle that timed previous lows on Sept 13/14 & Nov 13) until daily closes above [reserved for subscribers]…
Silver has an intriguing pair of targets/resistance levels in the coming week that should be watched IF a new rally takes hold. They come into play at xx.xx & xx.xx/SIH (with a third coming into play at xx.xx/ SIH)… there is the potential for Silver to rally to that level… There are some additional intriguing factors about what that would portend for the following week, but it is premature to be discussing too many ‘if/then’ scenarios until the first one is fulfilled (or fails).
Gold & Silver dropped sharply after fulfilling projections for accelerated surges into Dec 4th. That perpetuated a ~30-day related cycle that has created 1 – 2 week (or longer) peaks – within 3 – 4 trading days of the start of each month – in 6 of the past 9 months… and which could do the same in late-Dec/early-January.
Gold & Silver reached decisive upside targets as Gold peaked right at its 2152/GCG upside target. That spurred some profit-taking and a sharp pullback with Gold testing & holding its weekly HLS (extreme downside target for this past week) at 2014/GCG.
That was expected to trigger a 3 – 5 day rally this past week, which emerged and neutralized their daily downtrends multiple times. However, Gold & Silver would not turn their daily trends up until daily closes above [reserved for subscribers]…
The XAU & HUI remains on track for a 4Q ‘23 rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI… and potentially higher. Monthly resistance levels corroborate those objectives… The XAU & HUI perpetuated a ~5-week high-low-low-(low; Dec 11 – 15, 23) Cycle Progression and reversed higher, reinforcing the outlook for a continued advance into December 18 – 20… and potentially longer…
Platinum & Palladium are confirming lows with Platinum poised to spur a quick surge to 1060/PLJ or higher as it emerges from a ~5-month bottoming process and prepares for a new advance into May/June 2024. It closed the week above its weekly 21 High MAC for the first time since May ’23 and is poised to turn the direction of that MAC up.
Its inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC began a 5-week decline (in the past week), increasing the odds the 21 MAC will turn positive soon. Along with daily trend & 21 MAC action this past week, Platinum initially validated its December 7th buy signal and should spur another surge into late-Dec.
Daily cycles next converge on December 26 – 28th and could/should time a future high.
1 – 4 week & 1 – 3 month traders could have entered long positions in April ’24 Platinum futures at 921 – 928.0/PLJ and can move trailing sell stops to [reserved for subscribers; TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK!]”
Bitcoin & Ether are fulfilling analysis for major advances from their Nov ’22 lows (projected multi-year lows) into late-2023/early-2024. Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected a 1 – 2 month surge to ~35,000 (already fulfilled) and a larger 3 – 6 month advance to ~45,000+/BT (recently fulfilled). Ether has also fulfilled projections for a 3 – 6 month advance to 2,350 – 2,450/ETH… ushering in what will likely be a multi-week topping process until Dollar cycles bottom.
Since July, cryptos have been expected to work higher into (at least) December ’23 as the Dollar declines. That could culminate in late-December when Dollar cycles bottom. Gold analysis corroborates with Gold recently surging to its multi-month upside target (~2152/GCG) and peaking while the Dollar is projecting a final drop into year-end, before a more significant bottom is forecast to take hold.
Platinum is the latest market to prepare for a substantial surge, triggering a pair of buy signals on December 7th/8th and beginning to validate them in preparation for an accelerated advance.
Will Dollar Set Decisive Low in Late-December ‘23?
Are Bitcoin & Ether Beginning a Pivotal Topping Process?
How Low Could Cryptos Correct… and the Dollar Rally… in January ‘24??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.