Bitcoin & NQ-100 Pinpoint Early-Feb ’26 as Danger Period; New Declines Likely!
01-06-26 – Outlook 2026: The 17-Year Cycle Redux? – “2026 presents a unique opportunity – from a cycle perspective – to provide dual fulfillment to one of the most intriguing and consistent multi-year cycles addressed (continuously) in this publication:
The 17-Year Cycle.
In late-2024/early-2025, INSIIDE Track detailed expectations – based on that cycle and a myriad of corroborating Cycle Progressions & timing indicators – for stocks & stock indexes to suffer a multi-month plunge of 20 – 30% and bottom in late-March/early-April ‘25.
That would fulfill the ongoing 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Declines dating back over a century AND set the stage (’4-Shadow’) for a potentially more challenging time in 2026.
At the time, the forecast was for stocks to plummet into early-April ‘25 but then rebound rapidly. A rally to higher highs – based on monthly trend indicators & 21 MACs as well as multi-year Cycle Progressions – was the ideal scenario.
That would lead into 1Q 2026 – when the 2-Year Cycle & 4-Year Cycle would return to portend new declines. What could trigger this?…
Stock Indices remain in overall uptrends that were expected to stretch, in some indexes, into 1Q 2026. They were expected to see a series of highs in late-July, late-Sept & late-Nov ’25 with a final high potentially stretching into (late-) January ’26. That remains the case.
That would also fulfill the recurrence of ~2-Year & ~4-Year Cycle Progressions that converge in 1Q/January ’26 and portend a larger sell-off following January ’26 peaks…
Nov/Dec ‘25 had been projected to time the initial shift in several markets, including key stock indexes (and cryptos). The NQ-100 – and the intensifying relationship between major tech companies & their affinity for cryptos – has shown some initial signs of transition… but not yet confirmed a top.
NQ-100 Omens?
The NQ-100 has been leading a topping process and is tracing out a weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence that could usher in a 1Q 2026 decline. While it has not yet confirmed a larger-magnitude correction, that tech-heavy index has been producing multiple initial reversal signals… most of which are still in need of final validation.
The Nasdaq-100 set a multi-month peak in late-Oct ’25 – fulfilling a myriad of daily, weekly, monthly and even multi-year cycles and timing objectives.
On a multi-year basis, that Oct ’25 peak completed the 5th ~3-year advance (since the March ‘09 low) – fulfilling an intriguing series of bull market (wave timing) symmetry with successive rallies in:
- March 2009 – March 2012
- June 2012 – July 2015
- August 2015 – August 2018
- Dec 2018 – Nov 2021
- October 2022 – October 2025
Reinforcing those yearly/monthly ‘cycles’, the NQ-100 reached the extreme of its 33 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ‘23) – high (July ‘24) – high (Feb ‘25) – (high; Oct 20 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression as it was setting that peak.
It would need to turn the weekly trend down – which has not yet happened and cannot occur until the weekly close of Jan 16, ’26, at the earliest – in order to validate those timing indicators…
On Nov 20th, the NQ-100 closed below its Oct 10th low – triggering the first technical price signal that was needed to validate the Oct 28/29th cycle peak and signal a multi-month reversal lower. Now it needs a daily AND weekly close below its Nov 21st low (24,152/NQH) to elevate this decline and further validate its late-Oct ’25 peak.
The NQ-100 continues to trace out a multi-month top and weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence while increasing the synergy of downside targets near [reserved for subscribers]…
That 21 MAC sequence began with the initial, Oct/Nov sell-off that dropped right to the rising weekly 21 Low MAC. That spurred a reactive ‘b’ wave rally back above the weekly 21 High MAC. The Dec 10th high ushered in the ‘c’ or ‘3’ wave decline that just closed below the 21 High MAC.
The key signals would be a new weekly close below the 21 Low MAC (~24,700/NQH currently) and then a reversal down of that 21 Low MAC in the ensuing week(s)…
Once the month of February ‘26 begins, that inversely-correlated weekly 21 MARC will surge rapidly – making it much easier for the corresponding weekly 21 MAC to drop (or accelerate lower).
A significant convergence of weekly timing indicators – including a 10 – 11-week low-low-low-low Cycle Progression and a 50% retracement in time (28 – 29 weeks up, 14 – 15 weeks down) come into play on February 2 – 9, 2026 – the culmination of the first 40-day (‘testing’) period of the new year and possibly the culmination of an initial multi-month decline.
2026 in Focus
The broader equity outlook still anticipates another substantial decline in 2026 – potentially a second fulfillment of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines. The related/initial fulfillment – of forecasts for a late-’25 meltdown in cryptos – is reinforcing that outlook.
In addition, several AI-related stocks are also beginning to lose some of their ‘froth’ – the irrational exuberance that catapulted them into the stratosphere in 2025. It would only take a mild ‘return to rationality’ to have an oversized (negative) impact on those stocks and related indexes…
Bitcoin & Ether fulfilled ongoing analysis for sharp declines in the final months of 2025 and are still expected to see another drop in 1Q ‘26.
One particular crypto – XRP – has had a sharp bounce after dropping right to its 4th wave of lesser degree support (April ‘25 low near 1.600) in mid-Oct… but could still see a final low set on [reserved for subscribers].“
Bitcoin & cryptos are focused on the likelihood for a more impactful decline to take hold after stock index Cycle Progressions peak in late-Jan ’26. Bitcoin fulfilled early-October sell signals and is preparing for a second plunge in Jan/Feb ’26 – potentially coinciding with NQ-100 analysis for a drop into Feb 2 – 9 (greatest synergy = Feb 5 – 9, ’26). Early-Feb ’26 is the next ‘Danger Zone’ – for both cryptos & tech stocks – based on a myriad of technical timing indicators.
Almost a year ago, in February ’25, INSIIDE Track highlighted an intriguing set of ‘eerie parallels’ that were/are expected to reach fruition in 2026 (likely in 1Q/2Q ’26) and would be validated by an initial plunge in crypto prices in 4Q 2025. That would set the stage for a second drop surrounding late-Jan ‘26 – all leading into a unique monthly Cycle Progression low in 2Q ‘26. ~70K is the next (minimum) downside target… with two other targets well below that.
The initial plunge in Bitcoin was projected to be an omen of what would follow in 1Q ’26 (surrounding late-Jan ’26) – in line with stock index 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions. One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that were forecast to turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 – and accelerate lower in 1Q ’26 – as a ~4-year cycle goes through a major downward shift:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Why is Early-Feb ’26 Shaping Up as Critical ‘Danger Zone’ in Cryptos & Tech Stocks?
How Did Nov ‘25 Bitcoin & Stock Index Sell-offs Presage Jan/Feb. ’26 Sell-off?
Will ‘Eerie Parallels’ Emerge in Feb/March ’26… Right on Schedule?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.