Bitcoin Poised for Final Spike High & Bubble Peak; 40-Year Cycle Shift Imminent!
10/28/21 INSIIDE Track – “One of the most perplexing enigmas in the economy right now is the shortage of workers compared to available jobs. There are many reasons purported to be driving this challenge but I contend that the biggest one is the surging stock market of the past 18+ months.
Before dismissing that hypothesis, let me explain a few key points and also address a couple less credible ones…
There are those that want to blame this phenomenon on inflated unemployment benefits. While that has certainly been the culprit in some of these cases, one critical factor arguing against that conclusion is timing. In June & July 2021, the economy added about 1 million jobs per month. As that time frame was culminating, many states began curtailing enhanced unemployment benefits.
By Labor Day, most enhanced benefits were gone. However, the biggest drop in payroll numbers came in Sept. – when the economy added less that 200,000 jobs. That downtrend began in August.
As a result, the argument linking the two would have to say that when the spigot was turned off, workers suddenly stopped looking for jobs. That is nonsense.
Another piece of data might reveal a truer connection. US Bureau of Labor statistics show that in Sept. 2021 there were 3.6 million additional workers out of the labor force – who confirmed they did not want a job at this time – than at the same time in 2019. That appears to be obvious.
Looking a little closer at that data, it reveals that 89% of those 3.6 million former workers are 55 and older. Hmmm…
What part of the population is at greatest risk of catching Covid and/or suffering the worst symptoms if they caught the virus?
And what part of the population is closest to retirement age?
And what part of the population saw the biggest gains in their retirement portfolios over the past 18 months?
The answer is: The part of the population that is 55 and older!
While this demographic might not remain out of the workforce indefinitely, there are many who have opted for early retirement or at least decided to live off their investments for a prolonged period of time.
Paradoxically, the primary thing that might prompt them to rethink that decision would be the stock market – and by extension, their investment/retirement funds – taking a serious hit.
The only problem with that scenario is that corporations and employers do not sit around waiting for a change of heart like that. Instead, they find ways to better automate and/or eliminate certain jobs… never to be needed again.
Just as the 2008/2009 meltdown ushered in major shifts in the economy, real estate, and the resulting stocks of many companies, so too the 2020/2021 pandemic and reshuffling of the US economy is already ushering in major shifts…
What if a paradigm shift has taken hold?…
Solar Cycle Update
For the past ~3 years, INSIIDE Track has described expectations for Solar Cycle-related events in 2020 – 2024. That began with projections – described in early-2019 – for late-2019/early-2020 to repeat an uncanny ~11-Year Cycle of ‘Global-Shaping Events’ and ‘Stock Panic Cycles’. That was powerfully fulfilled with the onset of a global pandemic and stock ‘crash’.
Another related expectation dealt with analysis for intensification (in frequency and magnitude) of earthquakes in 2021 – 2022 and volcanoes in 2022 – 2024.
A third expectation, elaborated in recent months, is for a significant solar storm to impact Earth in 2022 – 2023 with the potential to cause damage or disruption to power grids and communication networks, both ground and space-based.
Well, 2021 could be providing another precursor event. According to spaceweather.com:
10-27 – 21 – “SIGNIFICANT X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: There was a global eruption on the sun today. It started with a powerful X1-class solar flare from sunspot AR2887. The blast created a massive tsunami of plasma in the sun’s atmosphere, which rippled across the entire solar disk. A CME is probably heading for Earth, raising the possibility of a geomagnetic storm on Halloween.
More information and updates @ Spaceweather.com.”
While that isn’t expected to materialize into the magnitude of solar storm discussed in recent months, an X-class flare is the highest of the three classifications (C, M & X-Class flares) and could cause some radio blackouts and related auroras. A similar flare occurred two weeks ago and is reinforcing that the Sun is definitely awakening in its latest up-cycle
To reiterate from last month, 2023 is the greatest synergy of solar-related long-term cycles and includes recurrences of the ~11-year cycle, 17-year cycle (of solar events) and corresponding 34-year cycle of solar events and is directly linked (by these cycles) to massive solar storms in/on:
Oct – Nov 1903 (‘Most significant storm – during a solar minimum period – on record.’).
May 1921 (‘Most intense geomagnetic storm of 20th century’).
Jan 16 – 26, 1938 (Fatima Storm; Massive storm that disrupted all transatlantic radio communication).
Feb. 1956 (Acheron Submarine Storm)
Aug 1972 – Fastest moving CME and most extreme Solar Particle Event in recorded history (‘most hazardous to human spaceflight’ during the Space Age).
Mar 1989 (Quebec Blackout Storm) – Massive storm that disabled the entire Quebec power grid.
Dec 2006 – Major (X-9) Solar flare (strongest in ~30 years) that seriously disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and GPS navigation signals.
It is also ~11 years from the 2012 storm that was allegedly as powerful as the 1859 Carrington Event… but missed Earth by a mere 8 days. Cyclically speaking, 2023 is the best chance for a major storm…
9-30-21 – Stock Indexes, on a 3 – 6 month basis, continue to trace out more of a sideways pattern since peaking during the latest phase of the ~16-Month Cycle in May/June ‘21. As stressed throughout this period, that does not include every stock or every index. Tops and bottoms rarely occur in tandem. Even the early-2020 peak stretched out over a 4 – 5 week period… before a 4 – 5 week plunge.
16 months before Jan/Feb. ‘20, in Sept/Oct. ‘18, equities did the same thing with some peaking in early-Sept, others in late-Sept, and the strongest ones in early-Oct. – before all of them entered a 2 – 3 month sell-off…focus has also been on the midpoint of that 16-Month Cycle – coming into play in Jan/Feb ’22 and expected to time a multi-month peak. As corroboration to that, an intervening multi-week peak was forecast for early-Sept ‘21 – 4 months from the early-May ‘21 peaks in indexes like the DJTA…
Most of the indexes fulfilled the May/June ‘21 cycle peak, triggering 15 – 30% corrections in a diverse array of sectors and stocks. Those stocks and indexes – with the DJTA in the lead – were projected to initially bottom during the week of July 19 – 23, with July 19 forecast to create a blow-off low in a majority of stocks. That was followed by a similar spike low on Aug 19…
The Russell 2000 peaked in March ‘21 and has been in a sideways correction since then – remaining within a relatively narrow trading range between ~2360 at the high and ~2100 at the low. During each sell-off, the Russell 2K has been unable to turn its weekly trend down – indicating that new highs (above the Mar ’21 peak) are likely to be seen before a more substantial sell-off becomes possible.
That (potential) new high would also be confirmation of a wave ‘5’ rally of which the overall 5-wave advance began in March ‘20. In 2021, the Russell 2K set its initial peak on March 15 and a secondary peak, 12 weeks later, on June 9. Another 12 weeks after the June 9 peak, it set another intermediate high on Sept. 3. 12 weeks from that high is Nov. 22 – 26.
The S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 waited until Sept. ’21 – 4 months from the May ’21 cycle high and 4 months before a related cycle high in Jan ’22 – to set a higher peak while most stocks and indexes set lower peaks. In doing so, they fulfilled their weekly LHR indicators that portended 1 – 2 month peaks in the first half of Sept. (see Sept ’21 INSIIDE Track for details).
That led to the largest sell-off in the S+P 500 since Oct. ‘20 and the largest in the NQ-100 since Feb. ‘21. As they spiked to new lows on Oct. 1/4 – in sync with daily cycles and weekly trend patterns – it became apparent that a multi-week rally could follow. That was reinforced by the DJTA exhibiting more bullish signs as it turned multiple trends up in early-Oct.:
10-09-21 Weekly Re-Lay: “Stock Indices are rebounding with the S+P 500 & NQ-100 bouncing from new multi-month lows set on Oct 1/4 while most other stocks and indexes are continuing their overall rallies from the Sept 20 weekly cycle lows.
In those indices, secondary lows (‘b’ wave lows) were set on Oct 1/4 and ushered in the projected ‘c’ wave advances that are now unfolding – with price action showing additional upside is still possible.
The DJTA – which has been leading this rebound since bottoming in perfect sync with weekly cycles on Sept 20… remain capable of extending gains…”
However, it was the S+P 500 that gave the most reliable signal by correcting far enough and long enough to twice neutralize its weekly uptrend… but not far enough to turn that weekly trend down. That showed some lingering resilience and altered expectations related to the extent of an October rally.
It bottomed on Oct 1 while fulfilling its initial 2 – 4 week downside target at 4264 – 4274/ESZ (setting a low at 4260/ESZ) and testing/holding its rising weekly 21 Low MAC. The weekly trend signal projected a rally back to (at least) the highs before another multi-week peak would become more likely.
10-16-21 Weekly Re-Lay: “That is corroborated by the weekly trend action in the S+P 500. That index could not turn its weekly trend down – while dropping right to its weekly & monthly HLS levels (4264 – 4274/ESZ was the downside target for its Sept. ’21 sell-off) AND its rising weekly 21 Low MAC on two consecutive weeks – before resuming its advance.
That pattern projects a retest of its high (4539/ESZ) and triggered the latest rally at the same time the DJIA & NQ-100 weekly trends…”
As that rally was unfolding, the DJTA turned its weekly trend back up – signaling that the Sept 20th low was the bottom of its 4+-month correction – its largest correction since 1Q ‘20 and its longest correction since 4Q ‘18 (all linked by the 16-Month Cycle). On Oct 15, the DJTA closed back above its weekly 21 High MAC for the first time since late-June – also hinting the Sept 20 low was a significant bottom.
In all of these indexes, there is likely to be more whipsawing – back and forth – between now and the next multi-month cycle high (likely in 1Q ‘22). The NQ-100, Russell 2000 and other indexes have the potential for another intermediate low in early-Dec. ‘21.
1Q ‘22
Not only is 1Q ‘22 (most synergistic in Jan/Feb ‘22 and ideally in Jan ‘22) the convergence of a web of 16, 8 & 4-month cycles, it is also the latest phase of the most consistent cycle of this century – the 3.25-Year Cycle. That cycle was last involved in creating the Dec. ’18 low and projecting an overall advance into 1Q ’22 – when the next phase should invert and time a 1 – 2 year (or longer) peak.
That would fulfill a 3.25-year low (1Q ‘09) – low (2Q ‘12) – low (3Q ‘15) – low (4Q ‘18) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression.
And that would also dovetail with the 2-Year Cycle that was detailed extensively in 2018 and again in 2020. Both times, it created peaks in Jan/Feb of those respective years – as well as subsequent peaks in Sept/Oct ‘18 & ‘20 – and is on track to create a similar peak in Jan/Feb ‘22.
So, there is quite a bit of synergy coming into play in 2022 as equities remain above multi-month and intra-year support levels during recent corrections. That does not, however, preclude the potential for another sharp sell-off in Nov ‘21 (potentially stretching into the first half of Dec. ‘21).
The NQ-100 bottomed above support (~14,100) and has since rallied back to the highs – signaling a wave ‘5’ of its own (though on a different magnitude than that of the Russell 2000) – stemming from the Mar ‘21 low. That is why the Oct. rally was stronger than expected. Since initially peaking in Feb. ’21, the NQ-100 has had three successive corrections – each one bottoming right at the rising weekly 21 Low MAC.
The second and third ones represent the ‘2’ and ‘4’ wave corrections in the 5-wave sequence that has unfolded since the early-Mar ‘21 low. The weekly trend shows that this latest rally does not have the same underlying strength as its predecessors – another earmark of a wave ‘5’ rally. As a result, it might not spike too much higher than the early-Sept high.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month (and even 1 – 2 year) traders and investors should have been lightening up on long positions in early-Sept…
The Dollar Index remains bullish on a 6 – 12 month and 1 – 2 year basis after bottoming in early-2021 while completing a 4+-year ’A-B-C’ decline and perpetuating an uncanny 38 – 41 month cycle. That should lead to another advance, stretching into 2023 – when an uncanny ~3-Year Cycle recurs…
Bitcoin surged in sync with weekly and monthly cycles, trend patterns and 21 MACs, fulfilling what the monthly & weekly trends had been projecting throughout the past ~6 months – a surge to new all-time highs (~65,000+/BT).”
Bitcoin is fulfilling what its monthly and then weekly trend indicators have projected – a surge to new all-time highs (~66,000+/BT) before a major top becomes most likely – the expected culmination of a major bubble and the fulfillment of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars – when a ‘seismic shift’ begins to take hold. Projected Dollar strength & equity weakness in 2022 could burden cryptos throughout the year and usher in 2023 – when a major solar storm is cyclically likely (also see Oct ’21 INSIIDE Track).
If Bitcoin can peak in the coming week(s), it will powerfully corroborate the outlook for 2022. Meanwhile, major stocks and indexes are poised to complete multi-year uptrends with final wave ‘5’ spike highs in Nov ’21 and/or Jan ’22 – at the same time Bitcoin is doing the same thing. That would project subsequent 2022 plunges to (at least) their 4th wave of lesser degree support.
What does this mean for the future of cryptos?
Why is 2022 Bearish for Cryptos & Stocks (and Bullish for US Dollar)?
Could 2023 Provide Massive ‘Challenge’??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.