Bitcoin Portends Sharper Sell-off into Nov 17 – 21st as Dollar & Interest Rates Strengthen.
10-29-25 – “Gold, Silver and a few other key markets continue to lead the overall market and economy, particularly interest rates. During 2025, but most convincingly since mid-August ’25, traders have been convinced of impending interest rate cuts – one of the biggest supports for the price of Gold.
As a result, Gold resumed its rally and surged into mid-October ’25 – the culmination of multi-week, multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions and the most likely time for a blow-off (3- 6 month) peak.
Not surprisingly, that coincided with the culmination of (semi-euphoric) expectations for easing interest rates. Until that time, the talk was of 3 – 4 successive rate cuts leading into early-2026. In mid-October – right on cyclic schedule – that began to change.
And so, Gold reversed lower – precisely where extreme upside targets were met AND when timing indicators had predicted (since November 2024) a crucial 3 – 6 month peak to take hold.
That reversal revealed the attitude toward interest rates was more likely to shift (or already had started shifting) – even if only subtly.
In walked Jerome Powell (today), letting traders know that a rate cut in December is ‘not a foregone conclusion’.
Once again, the markets and their related cycles revealed this shift before the fundamentals were known to the masses.
And now the focus pivots forward…
The Dollar Index is fulfilling analysis for a ‘c’ wave advance with initial resistance at 99.50 – 100.08/DXZ and a more likely upside objective near 101.00/DXZ.
Based on its weekly LHR indicator (a price/timing indicator that identifies extremes), that level could be reached this week. An intra-week rally above 99.42/ DXZ would turn the direction of the weekly 21 High MAC up – reinforcing a multi-month bottom is intact.
A weekly close above 99.30/DXZ would reverse the weekly trend up and also signal a higher magnitude advance (while also timing a likely initial high).
The overall price action continues to look more constructive – indicating the Dollar Index could be tracing out a larger-magnitude rally since bottoming in early-July ’25.
The Euro is tracing out an opposing ‘c’ wave decline that should make it to 1.1500/E6Z – where it would fulfill a flat correction (with two lows at similar levels) but more likely down to 1.1380/E6Z or lower.
The Aug & Sept ’24 highs (resistance turned into support), a primary downside wave target (new decline equals Sept/Oct decline), and the monthly 21 High MAC are at ~1.1340 – 1.1360/E6Z and represent more likely downside targets.
The weekly trend indicator and a ~9-month/39 – 41-week low-high-low-low-(low) Cycle Sequence could produce a low in the current week with a possible intra-week spike low in early-Nov ‘25.
If that is the case, and if the Euro turns its weekly trend down in the process (with a weekly close below 1.1583/ECZ), it would be setting the stage for a future (secondary) high in early-Dec ’25 – the next phase of a consistent ~11-week low-low-low-low-high-high-
Bitcoin & Ether continue to correct after Bitcoin fulfilled its weekly trend & reached major upside targets (~122,000 – 127,000/BT) while perpetuating a ~4-Year Cycle Progression that peaks in 4Q ’25.
More important, it continues to hold its July ’25 peak (despite spiking above it) – a cycle when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) set major peaks and turned decisively down.
Ether set a divergent peak in late-August – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a precise 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression.
Multiple cycles could extend the current decline into Nov 17 – 21, ‘25.“
Bitcoin has dropped sharply after fulfilling projections for a final spike high in 4Q ’25 and near/at 125 – 127,000/BTC. That was the (published) upside target range for many months and the ideal range for a Major peak! Bitcoin topped near 126,000 on October 6th – the midpoint of weekly Cycle Progressions that project the next low for Nov 17 – 21, ’25 – reinforcing that future cycle low.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of parallels that should/would come into focus in 4Q 2025, when related cycles are projecting a major shift in many financial and currency-related markets… as well as stock indexes, interest rates and energy markets. That (now) is when the first big sell-off in Bitcoin is most likely.
One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reverses:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Are Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks on Verge of Sharper Plunge?
What Do Bitcoin & Ether Sell Signals Portend for Coming Weeks?
Why is Seismic Shift Expected in 4Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.