Bitcoin & NQ-100 Reinforce ‘Eerie Parallels’; Precursor to 1Q ’26 Plunges?

11-13-25 – “Stock Indices fulfilled near-term analysis for a drop into Nov 7th and a subsequent bounce into Nov 12th… expected to lead to a sharper decline after that, beginning on Nov 13th.  As stated on Nov 11, ’25:

11-11-25 – “That is also in sync with the daily trends that turned down last week and led to the Nov 7th lows.  That is a lagging & confirming indicator that often reverses at the same time an initial low is set… and leads to a 2 – 3 day reactive bounce – a type of ‘b’ or ‘2’ wave rebound.  Stocks have done exactly that and now enter a pivotal time at mid-week.. 

The DJIA, S+P 500 & S+P Midcap 400 (as well as the XAU & HUI) have rebounded and twice neutralized their daily downtrends – also pinpointing Nov 12/13th as a decisive period when a secondary high is a greater probability.  A daily reversal lower would need to occur to validate that potential.

Several indexes have also been adhering to an ~11 trading day (15-16 calendar day) low-low-low-high (Oct 27) Cycle Progression that portends secondary highs on Nov 11/12th (now). 

That dovetails with the inversely-correlated daily 21 MARCs (also in Gold and related markets) that begin to surge on Nov 11th and continue higher into Nov 13/14th. 

In all those cases, that identifies Nov 12/13th as the ideal time to see new selling emerge. 

Why? 

Since a surging 21 MARC applies downward pressure to the corresponding 21 MAC, it often helps time when an intervening downturn is most likely in a market.  That pinpoints Nov 12/13th as a higher probability time for a new downturn in most equity indexes…

The NQ-100 turned its intra-month trend down last week, indicating it should not close above the Nov 3rd high before resuming its sell-off.  It has not been able to neutralize its daily downtrend (similar to Russell 2000) during this bounce, increasing the potential for a reversal lower on Nov 12th.”  — Nov 11, 2025 INSIIDE Track Stock Index Update


That is exactly what has unfolded and it dovetails with the ongoing discussion regarding late-2025 being the time when ‘eerie parallels’ to the 1920’s & 1990’s would begin to emerge.  Recent Weekly Re-Lay Alerts have elaborated on this.

On an intermediate basis, any of these indexes need to give a daily, and then weekly, close below the Oct 10th low to signal a larger-degree top with the potential for a new sell-off into early-Dec ’25 – the next phase of the ~8-month low-low Cycle Progression that timed the early-April low.  Until then, those intermediate trends remain up or neutral.

The preferred scenario remains that stock indexes will enter a second decline after mid-month and give weekly closes below their respective 21 Low MACs on Nov 21st…

Bitcoin & Ether continue to drop after Bitcoin attacked & held major upside targets (~125,000 – 127,000/BT) while peaking in 4Q ’25 but holding its July ’25 peak – a time when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) peaked.

Ether set a divergent peak in late-Aug – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression.  Both fulfilled analysis for an initial decline into Nov 7th and a bounce into Nov 12th, when another decline was projected to take hold.

Both cryptos have been tracing out an ongoing daily 21 MAC reversal and down-trending sequence.  After a late-October bounce to their declining daily 21 High MACs, Bitcoin & Ether sold off into early-Nov and then bounced to their declining daily 21 Low MACs on Nov 11th/12th.  That is what spurred the following conclusion in the Nov 12th Alert:

11-12-25 – “That is usually what occurs – a bounce to the 21 MAC without entering it – as a market is poised to accelerate lower… and project a sharp spike lower.  With both cryptos closing last week below their weekly 21 Low MACs, that also shows additional weakness.


Bitcoin & cryptos are fulfilling early-October sell signals and projections for sharp declines into Nov 17 – 21, ’25 (and to ~80,000/BT) – when an initial multi-week low is most likely.  The NQ-100 corroborates that and projects an initial low on Nov 17 – 24, ’25.  This action reinforces the focus on 1Q ’26 (after stock index cycles peak in late-Jan ’26) for a more convincing plunge in cryptos… and then tech stocks.

In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of ‘eerie parallels’ that should/would come into focus in 4Q 2025, when related cycles have been projecting a major shift in many markets.  That (now) is when the first big sell-off in Bitcoin had been projected… leading into the second half of November ’25 – an omen of what is likely to follow in 1Q ‘26.

If fulfilled, that would provide a powerful precursor to future action in late-Jan/early-Feb ’26 – in line with stock index 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions.

One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reverses:

17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts

40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar

40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process

 

How Does Nov ‘25 Bitcoin & Stock Index Plunge Presage 1Q ’26 Plummet?

What is Seismic Shift Projected for 4Q 2025/1Q 2026?

   

Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.