Bitcoin & Cryptos Nearing Initial Low; Presage Jan/Feb ’26 Plunges.
11-19-25 – Eerie Parallels… & the Wagging Tail – “In Feb ’25, the Weekly Re-Lay warned about a developing scenario that could see late-2025 usher in a dangerous time for Bitcoin/cryptos and ultimately for stocks. As 2025 unfolded, Bitcoin fulfilled timing signals for a pair of peaks – first in July and then in 4Q ’25 – while fulfilling major upside price objectives and range-trading targets (~125,000 – 127,000/BTC).
The action since Bitcoin’s peak in early-October – at the precise midpoint of the Cycle Progression that timed it’s June 23rd & Sept 1st lows and projected a future multi-week low for Nov 17 – 21, ’25 – has initially validated this scenario… with some serious ‘tail wagging’. The ‘dog’ has twitched a bit, too.
This is likely to be merely an initial validation with 1Q 2026 possessing a greater probability for fulfillment during a vulnerable (future) cyclic period.
This scenario involved a perceived parallel between the 1920’s, the 1990’s & the 2020’s – dealing with derivatives that took on a life of their own due to unrestrained and unbridled speculation. The first triggers were projected for Nov/Dec ’25.
In each case, the biggest part of the problem has to do with disproportionality regarding the time of an overall bull market during which the majority of speculators enter a given ‘bubble’ (see Nov 5 & 12, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay Alerts for related details).
In most cases, this type of connection or correlation only becomes pronounced during extreme phases of the ‘tail’s’ action… in this case, that refers to an extreme phase of Bitcoin’s & cryptos’ decline… which is probably still yet to come.
On an intermediate basis, Bitcoin was forecast to plunge from its record high – near 126,000/BTC – to at least 80,000/BTC… as it fulfilled ongoing Cycle Progression analysis for a drop into Nov 17 – 21, ’25.
That has just been fulfilled along with some related (near-term) expectations in equities…
Stock Indices declined into mid-week with the DJIA dropping right to its weekly HLS (weekly extreme downside target) as the NQ-100 fulfilled an initial downside target for this week, described in this Nov 15, ’25 Weekly Re-Lay analysis:
“The NQ-100 remained weaker and is validating a scenario that could see it drop back to ~23,000/NQZ in a few weeks (possibly in November). The next level of corroboration would arrive if it drops to ~24,450/NQZ in the coming week… and closes near its intra-week low on Nov 21st.”
The NQ-100 fulfilled the first part of that, dropping to 24,376/NQZ and closing at 24,595/NQZ on Nov 18th. Combined with the DJIA’s action and the S+P 500 spiking down to monthly AND weekly support – as all of those indexes fulfilled 38 – 39-day/~28 trading day low-low-(low; Nov 18, ’25) Cycle Progressions – it set the stage for a brief rally…
Bitcoin & Ether continue to drop after Bitcoin attacked & held major upside targets (~125,000 – 127,000/BT) while peaking in 4Q ’25 but holding its July ’25 peak – the time when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) peaked.
Ether set a divergent peak in late-Aug – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression. Both are fulfilling projections for an overall decline into Nov 17 – 21th…“
Bitcoin & cryptos are fulfilling early-October sell signals and projections for sharp declines into Nov 17 – 21, ’25 (and to ~80,000/BT) – when an initial multi-week low is most likely. Tech stocks have corroborated. This action reinforces the focus on 1Q ’26 (after stock index cycles peak in late-Jan ’26) for a more convincing plunge in cryptos… and then tech stocks in Feb and/or March ‘26.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of ‘eerie parallels’ that should spur an initial drop in crypto prices in 4Q 2025 and then a second drop in 1Q ’26 – all leading into a unique monthly Cycle Progression low in 2Q ‘26.
The initial sell-off in Bitcoin was projected to occur leading into the second half of November ’25 – an omen of what is likely to follow in late-Jan/early-Feb ’26 – in line with stock index 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions. One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reverses:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Why Does Nov ‘25 Bitcoin & Stock Index Sell-off Portend Feb. ’26 Plunge?
Will ‘Eerie Parallels’ Emerge in Feb/March ’26… in Sync with Analysis?
What is Seismic Shift Projected for 4Q 2025/1Q 2026?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.