Bitcoin Primed for 1Q ’26 Plunge to ~70K as NQ-100 Validates Late-Oct ’25 Cycle Peak!
12-17-25 – “4Q 2025 was forecast to be a time of significant shifts in many markets. Two of the impacted market complexes had an intriguing (but loose) connection… leading to the ongoing discussion of ‘eerie parallels’ between specific events in the 2020’s, the 1990’s, and the 1920’s.
Those two were cryptocurrency and the overall equity market. Cryptos were projected to peak first – earlier in 4Q ’25 – and enter negative cycles in Nov/Dec ’25, when the first of at least two (and potentially more) sharp sell-offs were projected to occur.
After peaking in Oct ’25, Bitcoin was projected to plunge to ~80,000/BTC and into the week of Nov 17 – 21st – plummeting 35+% in less than two months.
Overlapping that initial crypto decline, stock indexes were expected to be tracing out a topping process – with NQ-100 Cycle Progressions peaking in late-Oct ’25 and other index cycles portending peaks in Dec ’25 (most synergistic) or Jan ’26.
There remain striking similarities between the 1990’s unbridled spending on dot-com ventures & 2025’s no-holds-barred spending on cryptos (as corporate holdings) and AI infrastructure. Will the end results be the least bit similar?
Stock Indices are increasing their divergence as many indexes fulfilled ongoing projections for higher highs… even as the NQ-100 continues to reinforce its late-Oct ’25 cycle peak.
That peak completed its 5th ~3-year advance (since the March ‘09 low) – fulfilling an intriguing series of bull market symmetry with successive rallies in:
- March 2009 – March 2012
- June 2012 – July 2015
- August 2015 – August 2018
- Dec 2018 – Nov 2021
- October 2022 – October 2025
Reinforcing those yearly/monthly ‘cycles’, the NQ-100 reached the extreme of its 33 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ‘23) – high (July ‘24) – high (Feb ‘25) – (high; Oct 20 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression… increasing the potential for a drop into Jan ’26.
Two of the intermediate Cycle Progressions that helped pinpoint the Oct 28/29th top were a 13 – 14 trading-day CP and its over-arching 27 – 28 trading-day Cycle Progression.
The larger of those perpetuated a 27 – 28 trading-day high (July 3) – high (Aug 13) – high (Sept 22) – (high; Oct 28/29, ’25) Cycle Progression that came back into play on Dec 10th and timed a lower high.
That was also the midpoint of an intermediate, 28 – 29 trading-day low (Sept 2) – low (Oct 10) – low (Nov 20/21) – (low; Jan 2/5, ’26) Cycle Progression in the majority of the indexes. It rallied for half of that low-low cycle and set the stage for an equal-duration decline from Dec 10, ’25 into early-Jan.
While all of these NQ Cycle Progressions & timing indicators were timing a multi-month peak in late-Oct ’25 – and a secondary peak on Dec 10, ’25 – it was the corresponding price action that validated them…
On Nov 20th, the NQ-100 closed below its Oct 10th low – the technical price signal needed to validate the Oct 28/29th cycle peak and confirm a multi-month reversal lower. Now it needs a daily AND weekly close below its Nov 21st low (24,152/NQH) to elevate this decline and further validate its late-Oct ’25 peak…
Bitcoin & Ether completed initial rallies into Dec 4 – 8th after fulfilling decisive downside objectives – one in price and one in time – during the month of November ’25. At that time, Bitcoin fulfilled multi-month projections for a drop into the week of Nov 17 – 21st, ’25 AND a plunge to ~80,000/BTC during that primary decline.
The subsequent rally saw Ether rebound 50% of its late-Oct – Nov decline while attacking its previous (mid-Oct) low – both critical levels of intermediate resistance. At the same time, Bitcoin failed to turn its daily or intra-month trend up – ushering in the time for a quick, sharp drop. Dec 19/22nd is the next daily Cycle Progression and could time a multi-week low.“
Bitcoin & cryptos fulfilled early-October sell signals & projections for sharp declines into Nov 17 – 21, ’25 (and to ~80,000/BT). That was/is projected to spur a rebound to at least 97,000/BTC before a second plunge takes hold in Jan/Feb ’26… and potentially spills over into other markets.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of ‘eerie parallels’ that should spur an initial drop in crypto prices in 4Q 2025 and then a second drop in 1Q ’26 – all leading into a unique monthly Cycle Progression low in 2Q ‘26. ~70K is the next (minimum) downside target.
The initial plunge in Bitcoin was projected to be an omen of what is likely to follow in 1Q ‘26 – in line with stock index 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions. One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle goes through a major downward shift:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Why Should Bitcoin Reach ~97K Before Next Plunge?
Why Did Nov ‘25 Bitcoin & Stock Index Sell-offs Portend Jan/Feb. ’26 Sell-off?
Will ‘Eerie Parallels’ Emerge in Feb/March ’26… Right on Schedule?
Future highs in Jan ’26 & April ’26 likely. See current Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for the most updated analysis.