Bitcoin Projects Plunge in Second Half of February… Leading into early-March Cycle Low.
02/11/25 – “The Dollar Index is in limbo after surging to its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target at 109.78/DXH) and monthly SPR (109.83/DXH) to begin the week/month and reversing lower. It needs to turn its intra-month trend down, with a daily close below 107.15/DXH, to confirm a new multi-week top.
The Dollar Index has already fulfilled the 3 – 6 month outlook for a multi-month (6 – 12 month) low in late-September/early-October ‘24 followed by a rally into mid-January 2025.
It needs to ultimately turn its weekly trend down (not possible until Feb 21st at earliest; trigger point not yet established) to confirm that a multi-month top is in place and a new decline is taking hold. That would be the next validation to the 2025 outlook for a new Dollar decline and corresponding rally in Gold and key currencies.
The Euro is the inverse and retested its January low (in early-Feb) before rebounding. It needs a daily close above 1.0464/ECH to signal that a new multi-week low is intact…A low at any time in this 2-month period would also perpetuate a 28 – 29-month high-high-low-low-(low; Jan/Feb ’25) Cycle Progression… so the Euro is likely tracing out a 3 – 6 month (or longer) bottoming formation.
The Yen fulfilled projections for an initial surge into Feb 7th and up to .6640 – .6700/JYH, where multiple weekly & monthly LHRs converged with monthly resistance & upside wave targets.
As long as it does not give a daily close below .6484/JYH, the Yen will remain in positive territory with an increasing potential for a larger surge in the weeks to come. A weekly close above .6652/JYH is needed to turn the weekly trend up and signal new strength.
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st – 6 months/180 degrees from a previous high daily close (July 22nd) – but did not close above its mid-December (intraday) high, ushering in the potential for a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak in late-2024.
It also fulfilled a ~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression – reinforcing that conclusion.
Prior to that, Ether peaked in December after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak – while completing a ~3-year low (4Q ’18) – high (4Q ’21) – (high; 4Q 2024) Cycle Progression and signaling a multi-month (or longer) peak. It has already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak as cryptos confirm ongoing analysis for a drop in 1Q ‘25.
On a broader basis, Cryptos are steadily confirming ongoing analysis for a surge in 4Q 2024 followed by a downturn beginning in January 2025. That was projected to spur an initial drop into the period of Feb 5 – 10th (fulfilled last week) and ultimately into early-March ’25.
At its peak, Bitcoin fulfilled all of what was expected from a wave ‘V’ rally – a culminating advance that originated at the wave ‘IV’ low in July/August ‘24 in precise sync with its ~10-month high-low-low-low-(low; July/Aug ’24) Cycle Progression.
That August ’24 low spurred a multi-month surge into Nov/Dec 2024 – the same time of year in which Bitcoin set major highs in 2017 & 2021 and intervening lows in 2018 & 2022. An overlapping ~10.5-month/~43 – 46-week low-high-high-(high; Jan 3 – 24, ’25) Cycle Progression allowed for a final divergent spike high in January, which took place on January 20/21st.
In doing so, Bitcoin fulfilled another form of wave similarity – rallying for the same magnitude ($55,00 – $60,000/BT) as it did in March ‘20 – April ‘21 AND in Nov ‘22 – March ‘24. The peak near 108,000/BT precisely matched the magnitude of its previous (‘22 – ‘24) advance… a trio of similar advances that increased the likelihood for a major peak.
That crescendo was/is expected to time a major peak in cryptos and occurred precisely with a major bullish fundamental – the inauguration of President Trump. Markets usually top on good news and bottom on bad news.
From the intraday peaks to last week’s intraday low, Bitcoin dropped ~15% in two weeks. However, that is nothing compared to the losses in other cryptos as Ether, Litecoin & XRP plunged ~45% from their highs, Solana gave up over 40% and Dogecoin plummeted over 55%.
Those plunges reinforce that a 5th wave top is intact and a larger magnitude correction is underway, in sync with related analysis and cycles from 4Q 2024. A daily 21 MAC/21MARC combo in Bitcoin points to February xx – xx as being the latest vulnerable time when another sharp sell-off is a higher likelihood.”
Bitcoin is dropping as other cryptos plummet, further confirming Bitcoin’s December & January double peaks. The January high was a textbook (weak) wave 5 of V top that was set in perfect sync with MAJOR upside price targets as well as annual cycles (in December ’24). This projected/projects an overall decline into late-Feb/early-March ’25 as the first phase of a major shift.
The daily 21 MAC/21 MARC indicator projects a sharp plunge in Bitcoin in the second half of February.
Ether peaked in December ’24 and projected a sharp, multi-week drop to 2,200/ETH or lower… that should ultimately stretch into early-March ’25 (with an initial low forecast for early-February ’25). It recently attacked that downside price target, during the time when a 1 – 2 week low is most likely, so some consolidation is likely before a late-February sell-off.
On a broader basis, Bitcoin is capable of plunging back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT and stretching an overall multi-month decline into [see publications for details]. Multi-month cycles bottom in [reserved for subscribers].
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave 5 of V Peak Mean for 1Q 2025?
What Does Bitcoin’s Wave V Peak Mean for 2025?
Why are Other Cryptos So Much Weaker… & What Does That Portend?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.