Bitcoin Projects Surge to New Highs; 40-Year Cycle Portends 2021 (Bubble) Peak!
09/29/21 INSIIDE Track – “For over a decade, 2021 has been forecast to usher in a seismic global shift – both in the markets and beyond them. That does not mean that 2021 would be packed full with cataclysmic events. It could be just the opposite – a bit like the eye of a hurricane in which a temporary cessation of the violent winds of change soon gives way to an equally or more intense ‘wind’.
2021 was forecast to time the culmination of the latest phase of the uncanny 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars – a battle that flares back up every ~40 years, pitting the proponents of fiat currency (paper, debt-backed script) against those that advocate hard currency (precious metals). This battle was projected to time another strong advance in Gold – from 2016 (projected to be The Golden Year and usher in a new multi-year bull market in Gold) into 2021 as the two sides battle for currency supremacy.
That would perpetuate an uncanny cycle that timed related battles in 1976 – 1981, 1936 – 1941, 1896 – 1901, 1856 – 1861, 1816 – 1821 & 1776 – 1781 and well before the founding of the US, dating back into the 1200’s. Gold fulfilled that outlook.
Context & Clarity
One of the challenges involved in publishing this type of cycle analysis is trying to explain why ‘expecting the unexpected’ is not a contradiction in terms. The key is to remember the lessons of history and learn from them (instead of repeating them).
Very often, the general public is either ignorant or apathetic of these types of reality and are repeatedly explaining away these ‘black swan events’ as something that no one could have anticipated or seen coming. Perhaps that is true.
But, is it possible to see the multiple warning signs leading up to these events – and to realize it is time to take some precautionary measures?
Cycle analysis would adamantly argue it is possible!
Many ‘unexpected events’ (i.e. 2001 War Cycles that prompted published analysis for a ‘surprise attack on America’s shores’; the 2007 culmination of 17 & 34-Year Cycles that projected a 1-2 year, 50% drop in Stock Indices as well as a corresponding real estate debacle; Earthquake cycles in 2010 – 2011 that ushered in an unstable time on Earth; 2006 – 2014 projections for a spike in Disease Cycles in 2019/2020, Stock Panic Cycles forecast for 1Q ‘20) were discussed before the fact and ultimately came to fruition.
Another of these ‘unexpected’ events – expected in 2022 – 2023 – is a major solar storm and the resulting damage or disruption to power grids and communication networks, both ground and space-based.
Hopefully, that will just be a temporary ’glitch’.
However, history is replete with examples of similar events that caused pretty significant ‘glitches’.
2021 ushered in a 2 – 3 year period when Solar Storm Cycles intensify and collide. While 2023 is my primary focus in this analysis, the surrounding years could be just as dangerous. Why?
Synergy of Cycles
Synergy is the key to all of life. As the author of Ecclesiastes (usually assumed to be King Solomon) stated ~3,000 years ago:
“Two are better than one, because they have a good return for their labor. For if one falls down, his companion can lift him up; but pity the one who falls without another to help him up! …And though one may be overpowered, two can resist. Moreover, a cord of three strands is not quickly broken.”
Ecclesiastes 4:9 – 12 NIV
That also applies to all forms of analysis, whether technical, cyclical, or even fundamental. The more corroborating events reaching the same conclusion (particularly when they normally have a high level of non-correlation), the greater the chances of it coming to fruition.
In my work, that principle also applies to cycle hierarchy. When there are several independent or unrelated cycles that recur at the same time – it increases the reliability of that cycle. Let me explain…
I have discussed this topic before but it is always good to reiterate something of this significance. For the past 3+ decades, I have written on – and attempted to highlight – the importance of two very natural cycles that strongly impact the interplay between the magnetic forces of Earth and the Sun… and therefore everything that is magnetic in nature (like humans).
[For a more detailed description, readers can start at https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/17-year-cycle/ & https://www.insiidetracktrading.com/11-year-cycle/. Also refer to page 3 of the Sept ‘21 INSIIDE Track.]
- The ~11.2-Year Cycle times the approximate (average) interval between highs and/or lows of the Sunspot Cycle. The impact on Earth is felt strongest when solar flares eject CMEs toward Earth creating a geomagnetic storm that sometimes strikes Earth.
- The ~17-Year Cycle times the ‘to and away’ interplay between the Sun’s and the Earth’s geomagnetic force and, in my opinion, impacts everything from earth instability to socio-economic instability. Not surprisingly, it also drives the 17-year cicada from its underground ‘hibernation’ – possibly influenced by a similar long-term cycle of magnetivity.
The 34-Year Cycle
75% of the time, these two cycles are staggered – at the ~11, ~17 & ~22-year intervals.
25% of the time – at the ~34-year interval (as well as ~68 – 69 and 102 – 103 year intervals) – the ~11-Year Cycle and the ~17-Year Cycle converge, theoretically increasing the magnetic impact of their independent cycles.
As with any cycle, an individual recurrence of a single cycle typically has a muted effect and might not be noticed by anyone except the most astute observer. In contrast, the synergy of multiple cycles ‘ups the ante’ and increases the potential for resulting events.
The 17-Year Solar Storm Cycle
It is also worth noting when the unexpected occurs.
One would naturally anticipate the ~11-year cycle to time some of the major solar storms of the past couple centuries. While there is some truth to that, the more intriguing realization is that there continues to be a very consistent ~17-year cycle between some of the most significant, most powerful and/or most rapid solar storms (felt on Earth) of the past 150+ years.
The following list highlights many of the most dramatic (strongest, fastest moving, largest disruption) solar storms of the past ~120 years – all adhering closely to the 17-Year Cycle and hinting that a related storm could occur in/around 2023:
Oct – Nov 1903 – Most significant storm – during a solar minimum period** – on record. **It occurred less than 2 years from the start of Solar Cycle 14 in Jan 1902… similar to where Solar Cycle 25 is now.
May 1921 – Most intense geomagnetic storm of 20th century – also known as the New York Railroad Storm due to the fact it blew out the entire switching and signaling system of the NY Railroad – creating flames shooting out of the switchboard and igniting the entire building. It wreaked havoc across Europe and was the lowest latitude aurora borealis ever documented (including observations in Pasadena, CA). This storm was also near the low of the Sunspot Cycle.
Jan 16 – 26, 1938 (Fatima Storm) – Massive solar storm that disrupted all transatlantic radio communication. Auroras seen around the globe on Jan 25/26, including S California, Bermuda, Scotland, Austria, Sicily, Gibraltar and Portugal. Due to the intensity of those aurora, cities like Venice, London and even San Diego were thought to be ablaze.
A few months earlier (in 1937), the ‘worst storm in a hundred years’ occurred and lasted 4 days. In the ensuing years (demonstrating that this 17-Year Cycle often times a multi-year period of solar storm ‘swarms’, similar to earthquake and volcano cycles), at least three other significant storms impacted Earth in 1940 – 1941.
1955 did not produce any significant storms but ushered in a 3 – 4 year period with the greatest concentration of significant storms (Feb ’56, Sept ’57, Feb ’58 & July ’59) coming just after – arriving ~17 years from the 1940/41 storms just cited.
The Feb ’56 Acheron Submarine Storm arrived less than two months after 1955 and produced ‘the most intense cosmic ray blast ever recorded’. Since the ~17-Year Cycle is actually a ~17.2-Year Cycle (a multiple of 2.15, 4.3 & 8.6-year cycles), this Feb ‘56 storm fulfilled that cycle.
Aug 1972 – Fastest moving CME and most extreme Solar Particle Event in recorded history; caused accidental detonation of many magnetic-influenced sea mines. To date, this storm was the ‘most hazardous to human spaceflight’ (during the Space Age).
Mar 1989 (Quebec Blackout Storm) – Massive storm that disabled the entire Quebec power grid – impacting 6 million people, leaving many trapped in darkened office buildings in frigid weather. It produced auroras seen as far south as Florida and Cuba.
As later acknowledged, all that prevented the cascade from affecting the United States and creating catastrophic consequences in most Eastern US cities ‘were a few dozen capacitors on the Allegheny Network’. (So, if you think these storms are just anomalies from ancient history – or only impact archaic power and communication systems – think again.)
Dec 2006 – Major (X-9) Solar flare (strongest in ~30 years) that seriously disrupted satellite-to-ground communications and GPS navigation signals.
2023 – Next phase of 17-Year Cycle of Major Geomagnetic Storms.
The 11.2-Year Sunspot Cycle
Reinforcing this 17-Year Cycle is the related ~11-Year Cycle that times the overall sunspot cycle. On July 23, 2012, a solar storm as powerful as the 1859 Carrington Event (the most destructive solar storm to impact Earth in at least 200 – 300 years) occurred. Why have we not heard about this? Due to the Sun’s rotation, that storm missed Earth by a mere 9 days. [See accompanying inset and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_2012.]
11 years from that 2012 event is also 2023. Will we be so lucky again? More to follow…
Stock Indices
09/30/21 – Stock Indexes (except for S+P 500 & NQ-100, being supported by a few key stocks) have been in a corrective period since May/June ‘21 – the latest phase of an uncanny ~16-month cycle that has governed the majority of equities for several years. That cycle previously helped pinpoint the Sept/Oct ‘18 and Jan/Feb ‘20 highs as well as the sharp declines that followed each.
Most of the indexes fulfilled that cycle peak – topping in May/June ‘21 and triggering 15 – 30% corrections in a diverse array of sectors and stocks. Those stocks and indexes – with the DJTA in the lead – were projected to initially bottom during the week of July 19 – 23, with July 19 forecast to create a blow-off low in a majority of stocks.
That was followed by a similar spike low on Aug 19 and a related spike low – projected for the DJTA and weaker indexes – on Sept 20.
The S+P 500 & Nasdaq 100 waited until Sept. ’21 – 4 months from the May ’21 cycle high and 4 months before a related cycle high in Jan ’22 – to set a higher peak while most stocks and indexes set lower peaks. In doing so, they fulfilled their weekly LHR indicators that portended peaks in the first half of Sept. (see Sept ’21 INSIIDE Track for details).
That action powerfully validates the 2 – 3 month outlook – for a second decline in Sept – Nov. ‘21 – and the 3 – 6 & 6 – 12 month outlooks for an overall corrective period from May/June into Nov ‘21… before a rebound into Jan/Feb ‘22.
Looking out beyond Sept. ‘21, another multi-month high is still expected in Jan./Feb. ‘22 – 8 months from the May/June ‘21 cycle high in most stocks – reinforcing the overall 16-Month Cycle as well as the uncanny 2-Year Cycle.
The 3.25-Year Cycle
Another corroborating cycle is a 3.25-Year Cycle was powerfully validated with the Dec. ’18 low in stocks and projected an overall advance into 1Q ’22 – when the next phase should invert and time a 1 – 2 year (or longer) peak. That would fulfill a 3.25-year low (1Q ‘09) – low (2Q ‘12) – low (3Q ‘15) – low (4Q ‘18) – high (1Q 2022) Cycle Progression.
So, there is quite a bit of synergy coming into play in 2022; particularly in 1Q ’22. If stocks correct into mid-to-late-Nov. ’21 and do not break below their intra-year lows, they would have the potential to set higher highs in 2022. Otherwise, it could be equal or lower highs set in 1Q ’22.
The NQ-100 just fulfilled an important downside objective for the month of September, dropping below 14,699/NQZ and completing an outside-month reversal lower (higher high followed by lower low than previous month) – reinforcing that more downside is likely in the coming months. It also generated a monthly 2 Close Reversal lower.
The S+P 500 also completed an outside-month reversal lower and a corresponding monthly 2 Close Reversal lower. Both of those signals corroborate the outlook for a larger-scale decline from early-Sept into mid-to-late-Nov. ’21.
On an intermediate basis, there are two key (initial) downside objectives for the NQ-100. The first is to see a drop below 14,100/NQZ – surpassing the magnitude of the Jan/Feb ’21 sell-off. The second is to see a drop below ~13,900/NQZ – exceeding the magnitude of the Sept ‘20 sell-off.
The intriguing aspect of these two wave targets is that they also represent two levels of ‘resistance turned into support’ – the April ’21 peak (near 14,100/NQ) and the Feb ’21 peak (near 13,900/NQ).
As a result, those levels are both downside objectives and negative confirmation points (if/when the NQ-100 drops below them). A drop below 13,900/NQ would trigger intermediate 4-Shadow Signals on two levels – confirming that a multi-month peak is in place and that another decline would be expected to follow an intervening rebound.
The S+P has related (initial) downside targets around 4110/ESZ and 4020/ESZ. The DJIA has key support and a downside target at 31,200 – 31,600/DJIA. Lower lows are possible in Nov. ’21.
3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month (and even 1 – 2 year) traders and investors should have been lightening up on long positions in early-Sept…
The Dollar Index spiked down into early-Sept – attacking its 4th wave of lesser degree support (91.80/DXZ) and reversing higher with its weekly uptrend intact. The following week, the Dollar Index turned its weekly 21 MAC up. It has since rallied and remains on track for a 6 – 12 month and 1 – 2 year rally from its cycle lows in early-2021.
On a longer-term basis, the Dollar Index likely completed a 4+-year ’A-B-C’ decline in 2Q ’21 while perpetuating an uncanny 38 – 41 month cycle. That should lead to another advance, stretching into 2023 – when an uncanny ~3-Year Cycle recurs…
Bitcoin remains strong but has consolidated after spiking up to ~53,500/BT in Sept. It has since corrected and twice neutralized its weekly uptrend, usher ing in the ideal time for a new advance. Monthly & weekly trends project new highs (~65,000+/BT).”
Based on its monthly trend pattern in June ’21 – while fulfilling downside targets at ~29,000/BT – Bitcoin continues to project an overall surge to new all-time highs (above 65,000/BT) – the culmination of a major bubble and the fulfillment of the 40-Year Cycle of Currency Wars – before a major top becomes most likely. Projected Dollar strength & equity weakness in 2022 could burden cryptos throughout the year and usher in 2023 – when a major solar storm is cyclically likely. If Bitcoin can peak in 4Q ’21, it will powerfully corroborate the outlook for 2022 and be a prime candidate for ‘Bubble of the Decade’!
Why is 2022 Bearish for Cryptos & Stocks (and Bullish for US Dollar)?
What would that mean for the future of cryptos?
Could 2023 Provide Massive ‘Challenge’??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.