Bitcoin Reaches ~3200 Target as Cycles Bottom in mid-Dec. ‘18. How High Could 3 – 6 Month Advance Reach?
Bitcoin Reaches ~3200 Target as Cycles Bottom in mid-Dec. ‘18. How High Could 3 – 6 Month Advance Reach?
12/14/18 The Bridge – Currency Wars & Cryptos: “Another reason the current time frame is becoming important has to do with extremes.
In late-July, Bitcoin attacked its weekly LHR (weekly extreme upside target) – projecting a 1 – 2 month peak within 1 – 3 weeks. A week later, it spiked up to its monthly extreme upside target (July LHR at 8,482) – signaling an impending 3 – 6 month peak. (Bitcoin was also attacking its weekly 21 Low MARC at 8,370.)
Once that peak is set, a market then needs to ultimately make it back down to an opposing HLS (extreme downside target) that will signal an impending bottom. Bitcoin finally did that in late-Nov… although it has fulfilled that extreme target, it has not yet signaled a bottom. A test of ~3,000 is likely before then.
From a timing perspective, Bitcoin continues to move in ~5-month trends and ~5-month cycles.
In late-2017, mid-Dec. 2017 was the timing target for a major top – the fulfillment of the 4th consecutive rally of 5 months’ duration. That is when it peaked. Ensuring (descending) peaks were expected in May & Sept. ’18, with sharp declines to follow each.
At the same time, Bitcoin has set a series of lows at ~5-month intervals – in late-March ‘17, early-Sept. ‘17, early-Feb. ‘18 & late-June/early-July ‘18. The next phase of that ~5-month cycle is in the first half of December, which is now unfolding… when a 3 – 6 month low could take hold. It is also 360 degrees from its major, mid-Dec. 2017 peak.”
Bitcoin reaches major, 6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year downside target at ~3,200 (see July 13, 2018 The Bridge) – returning to long-term trend support and its overall equilibrium point. This is occurring as cycles bottom in mid-Dec. 2018. At the very least, a 3 – 6 month bottom should take hold near current levels.
At the same time, the Dollar is peaking – setting what should be a 3 – 6 month or 6 – 12 month top (Nov./Dec. 2018) – ushering in a prime opportunity for Bitcoin to enter a 3 – 6 month (or longer) advance in the first half of 2019. At the same time, Gold (the other ‘anti-Dollar’) remains positive and is projected to see an overall advance into late-Feb./early-March ’19 and potentially into June/July ’19. So, there are signs that the Dollar’s new-found strength is culminating.
See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and/or trading strategies.