Bitcoin Reinforces 45,000+/BT Upside Target; Dollar Drop into Late-December Likely.
12/06/23 – “The Dollar Index reached multi-week downside targets & support (~102.40/DXZ), setting the stage for a 1 – 2 week low. It also fulfilled a 26 – 29-day high-high-high-(low; Nov 27 – 30) Cycle Progression while reinforcing the developing negative structure of the monthly trend & wave structure.
That spurred an initial rally that turned the daily & intra-month trends up, reinforcing the recent low. That could spur additional upside into mid-month before a sell-off into the next phase of that ~4-week cycle in late-Dec ’23. That is also when a ~24-week low-low-low-(low; Dec 26 – 29, ’23) Cycle Progression would mature.
The Dollar Index has been trading inside its rising monthly 21 MAC since March ’23 and ended the month dropping back to the monthly 21 Low MAC. If it closes below that average on December 29th, it would be the first time to do that since July/Aug ’21 (that level is currently at 102.86/DX on a cash basis, equivalent to about 102.40/DXH in March futures).
December ’23 begins a sharp surge in the monthly 21 MARC, which is inversely correlated to the monthly 21 MAC. As a result, that 21 MAC will have a much easier time turning down in the coming months.
That would add another negative factor to the Dollar Index in the first half of 2024. So, even if a multi-week low is set in late-December, the Dollar Index would encounter new headwinds after a subsequent rebound.
The Euro turned its daily & intra-month trends down as it pulled back to its previous high (resistance turned into support… and also range-trading support) and its weekly 21 Low MAC while retracing 50% of its October/ November rally. If it fails to close below 1.0800/ECH, the Euro should see a new rally into late-Dec ‘23.
The Yen has rallied from intermediate support (.6610 – .6654/JYZ) and initially peaked at .6833 – .6870/JYZ, where three weekly LHRs converged with the declining weekly 21 Low MAC. It could see a rally to ~.7130/JYH in December, particularly if it can give a daily close above .6955/JYH – turning its intra-month trend up.
Bitcoin & Ether remain in multi-month uptrends and could extend them into (at least) Dec 8 – 15, ’23, the next phase of 36 – 38-week high-high-high-(high) & ~13-week low-low-low-(high) Cycle Progressions.
Bitcoin has nearly reached its multi-month upside target – at ~45,000/BT (see Oct., Nov. & Dec. ’23 INSIIDE Tracks) – and could spike up to 47 – 48,000/ BTC before a peak is seen. Ether reached its initial ~2,100/ETH target and could spike up to 2,350 – 2,450/ETH – where various wave objectives converge.
Gold & Silver precisely fulfilled ongoing projections, spiking up to new multi-month highs on December 4th – with Gold perfectly fulfilling its upside wave target at 2152/GCG (intraday high was 2152.6/GCG)… Gold also attacked and held its Intra-month PLLR (2149/GCG), reinforcing the likelihood for a peak near/at 2152/GCG.
By extending that rally into December 4, ‘23, Gold fulfilled a ~31-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression from its 2022 low AND completed equal-duration rallies from the early-Oct ’23 cycle low (Dec 4, ’23 was the precise date, cited in recent weeks)…
This spike high also fit perfectly with Silver’s weekly & monthly LHR indicators after Silver fulfilled November expectations for a rally to ~25.70/SIH by/on Nov 30, ’23 – strengthening the case for a spike high in early-Dec ‘23. That was where its monthly LHR intersected other upside targets.
By testing it in November, it reinforced the potential for some continued upside into early-Dec ’23… when a 1 – 2 week (or longer) peak was expected to take hold.
Gold & Silver also fulfilled the likelihood for accelerated advances in the weeks surrounding Nov 20 – 24, ’23 – the ideal time for the weekly 21 MACs to turn up (due partially to the declining 21 MARCs). Both turned their weekly 21 MACs up on Nov 20 – 24th, fulfilling that pattern and increasing bullish pressure leading into Dec 4, 2023…
The XAU & HUI are fulfilling projections for a 4Q ‘23 rally to 130 – 133/XAU & 251 – 254/HUI. Monthly resistance levels corroborate those objectives.”
Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing projections that their Nov ’22 lows are multi-year lows that would spur large advances into late-2023/early-2024. Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected a 1 – 2 month surge to ~35,000 (already fulfilled) and a larger 3 – 6 month advance to ~45,000+/BT. Ether is on track for a 3 – 6 month advance to 2,350 – 2,450/ETH.
Since July, cryptos have been expected to work higher into (at least) December ’23 and potentially into 1Q 2024. Dollar & Gold analysis could help hone this outlook with Gold just surging to its multi-month upside target (~2152/GCG) while the Dollar is projecting a final drop into year-end, before a more significant bottom is forecast to take hold.
Has Dollar Completed its Multi-Year (~14-year) Uptrend?
Are Anti-Dollar ‘Currencies’ (Cryptos & Metals) Poised for New Bull Markets in 2024?
Will Bitcoin Set a Multi-Month Peak Near 45,000/BT?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.