Bitcoin Reinforcing Likelihood for 1Q ’26 Plunge to/Below ~70K; NQ-100 Action Concurs!
12-18-25 – “Stock Indices (most) remain in multi-week uptrends but with a dwindling number of those (2; DJTA & IDX) remaining in intra-month uptrends after rallies into mid-month (Dec 12/15th) and/or to monthly resistance levels…
From a price perspective, the S+P 500 & NQ-100 remain below the levels of their secondary highs from Nov 12th. They retested those levels and turned back down, in line with 1 – 2 month outlooks and daily Cycle Progressions (NQ-100) on Dec 10th.
On a multi-month basis, the indexes are increasing their divergence as many indexes fulfilled ongoing projections for higher highs into Dec ’25… even as the NQ-100 continues to reinforce its late-Oct ’25 cycle peak – a peak that could hold for several months.
That peak completed the 5th ~3-year advance (since the March ‘09 low) – fulfilling an intriguing series of bull market (wave timing) symmetry with successive rallies in:
- March 2009 – March 2012
- June 2012 – July 2015
- August 2015 – August 2018
- Dec 2018 – Nov 2021
- October 2022 – October 2025
Reinforcing those yearly/monthly ‘cycles’, the NQ-100 reached the extreme of its 33 – 36-week low (Mar ’23) – low (Oct ‘23) – high (July ‘24) – high (Feb ‘25) – (high; Oct 20 – 31, ’25) Cycle Progression… increasing the potential for a drop into Jan ’26.
Two of the intermediate Cycle Progressions that helped pinpoint the Oct 28/29th top were a 13 – 14 trading-day CP and its over-arching 27 – 28 trading-day Cycle Progression.
The larger of those perpetuated a 27 – 28 trading-day high (July 3) – high (Aug 13) – high (Sept 22) – (high; Oct 28/29, ’25) Cycle Progression that came back into play on Dec 10th and timed a lower high.
That was also the midpoint of an intermediate, 28 – 29 trading-day low (Sept 2) – low (Oct 10) – low (Nov 20/21) – (low; Jan 2/5, ’26) Cycle Progression in the majority of the indexes. It rallied for half of that low-low cycle and set the stage for an equal-duration decline from Dec 10, ’25 into early-Jan.
While all of these NQ Cycle Progressions & timing indicators were timing a multi-month peak in late-Oct ’25 – and a secondary peak on Dec 10, ’25 – it was the corresponding price action that validated them.
On Nov 20th, the NQ-100 closed below its Oct 10th low – triggering the technical price signal that was needed to validate the Oct 28/29th cycle peak and confirm a multi-month reversal lower. Now it needs a daily AND weekly close below its Nov 21st low (24,152/NQH) to elevate this decline and further validate its late-Oct ’25 peak.
Bitcoin & Ether completed initial rallies into Dec 4 – 8th after fulfilling decisive downside objectives – one in price and one in time – during the month of November ’25. At that time, Bitcoin fulfilled multi-month projections for a drop into the week of Nov 17 – 21st, ’25 AND a plunge to ~80,000/BTC during that primary decline.
The subsequent rally saw Ether rebound 50% of its late-Oct – Nov decline while attacking its previous (mid-Oct) low – both critical levels of intermediate resistance. At the same time, Bitcoin failed to turn its daily or intra-month trend up – ushering in the time for a quick, sharp drop beginning on Dec 10th. Dec 19/22nd is the next daily Cycle Progression and could time a multi-week low…“
Bitcoin & cryptos are powerfully reinforcing the potential for a more impactful decline – projected to take hold after stock index Cycle Progressions peak in late-Jan ’26. Bitcoin fulfilled early-October sell signals & projections for sharp declines into Nov 17 – 21, ’25 (and to ~80,000/BT)… and was projected to rebound to at least 97,000/BTC before a new plunge takes hold in Jan/Feb ’26.
Almost a year ago, in February ’25, INSIIDE Track highlighted an intriguing set of ‘eerie parallels’ that were/are expected to reach fruition in 2026 (likely in 1Q/2Q ’26) and would be validated by an initial plunge in crypto prices in 4Q 2025. That would set the stage for a second drop surrounding late-Jan ‘26 – all leading into a unique monthly Cycle Progression low in 2Q ‘26. ~70K is the next (minimum) downside target… with two other targets well below that.
The initial plunge in Bitcoin was projected to be an omen of what is likely to follow in 1Q ‘26 – in line with stock index 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions. One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that were forecast to turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 – and accelerate lower in 1Q ’26 – as a ~4-year cycle goes through a major downward shift:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Can Bitcoin Still Reach ~97K Before Next Plunge?
How Did Nov ‘25 Bitcoin & Stock Index Sell-offs Presage Jan/Feb. ’26 Sell-off?
Will ‘Eerie Parallels’ Emerge in Feb/March ’26… Right on Schedule?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.