Bitcoin Retesting July ’25 Cycle Peak as Crypto Stocks Diverge; Reinforce Focus on 4Q ’25.
08-16-25 – “The Dollar Index has corrected after surging into August 1st and attacking its weekly LHR. The intra-month downtrend projected an extension of its decline into mid-month and to the convergence of weekly & monthly support at 97.23 – 97.45/ DXU, which was fulfilled in recent days.
A final spike low could be seen – down to new weekly support – and perpetuate a ~7-week high-high-high-low-(low; Aug 18 – 22, ’25) Cycle Progression. On balance, the Dollar Index is still expected to rally to ~102.00/DX…
The Euro has rallied after dropping to its weekly HLS while testing and holding its rising weekly 21 High MAC on August 1st. It is slowly validating analysis for a multi-month peak after tracing out a 5-wave advance from Jan into early-July ’25. That could lead to a higher-magnitude decline.
If it continues to confirm that peak, the Euro could ultimately retrace to ~1.1150/EC – its 4th wave of lesser degree support and also a part of its Natural Year opening range. (The FXE ETF has synergistic support near 102.00.)…
Bitcoin & Ether remain in uptrends with Bitcoin retesting its July ’25 cycle peak as Ether retested its Nov ’21 all-time high. Bitcoin did not close above its previous high so the July ’25 cycle high continues to hold. A daily close below 112,000/BTC would confirm a top (and complete an Intra-Month Inverted V Reversal lower).“
Bitcoin is holding July ’25 cycle highs, corroborating related analysis for a 1 – 2 month top at that time. Its weekly & monthly trends remain positive, leaving open the potential for an ultimate spike up to 125 – 127,000/BTC, where a host of major & multi-year upside targets, wave objectives & intra-year extreme levels collide. That is likely to occur after intermediate cycles bottom in the first half of September ‘25.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of parallels that should/would come into focus in 4Q 2025, when related cycles are projecting a major shift in many financial and currency-related markets… as well as stock indexes, interest rates and energy markets. That is when the first big sell-off in Bitcoin is most likely.
One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reversed:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
Will Bitcoin Reach 127,000 Before Decisive Peak?
Could 2025 See Major Top in Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks?
Why is Seismic Shift Likely in 4Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.