Bitcoin & NQ-100 Prep for Late-Jan/Early-Feb ’26 Danger Period; Sharp Drops Likely!
01-07-26 – “The start of a new year, a new quarter, and a new month provides the opportunity for new trends on multiple time frames (intra-year, intra-quarter, intra-month) and the corresponding resistance or support zones & anticipated intra-period action that accompanies related signals & trends.
For now, this discussion is concerned with the new intra-month trends and what they might reveal about the likely action of the coming weeks. While this is far from a perfect ‘indicator’ – and is not even a trading ‘indicator’ in and of itself – it does provide important guidance and guardrails for the subsequent action. And synergy with other indicators is the real key.
At the core of these trends is the role of the opening range and how a market trades away from that initial trading range. That is where many markets now find themselves – at key decision points…
To quickly review, the opening range for a new month is defined as the trading range (high and low) of the first three trading days of each month. In the case of January, that range is the highest high and lowest low of the January 2 – 6th range. During those first three trading days, the new intra-month trend can only be viewed or defined as ‘neutral’.
After those first three trading days, it requires a daily close above the high or below the low of that overall trading range to signal a new intra-month trend (up or down). January 7th is the earliest that could occur in any market. Some have triggered new intra-month trends while others have not (yet)…
Stock Indices rallied for the first three trading days of the new month and would need to generate daily closes above the Jan 2 – 6th highs in order to turn the new intra-month trends up and extend these rallies**. Most reversed lower today, some significantly so, preventing those intra-month trends from turning up.
(**Conversely, they would need to generate daily closes below the Jan 2 – 6th trading range lows to turn the intra-month trends down.)…
The NQ-100 continues to trace out a weekly 21 MAC reversal sequence that has been detailed in previous publications and fulfilled the potential for a spike above 25,893/NQH today, setting the stage for another decline to take hold.
On an intermediate basis, the NQ-100 needs to give a weekly close below its weekly 21 Low MAC (currently near 24,700/NQH) to show that a higher-magnitude peak is in place and to project an overall decline into early-Feb ’26.
That would fulfill a 10 – 11-week low-low-low-low Cycle Progression and a 50% retracement in time (28 – 29 weeks up, 14 – 15 weeks down) – coming into play on February 2 – 9, 2026.
Feb 9th is also the culmination of the first 40-day (‘testing’) period of the new year… a time when initial trends often culminate…
Bitcoin & Ether have consolidated after plunging into Nov 17 – 21st, ’25 and to ~80,000/BTC – fulfilling the 4Q ’25 outlook for cryptos. New lows are expected in 1Q ’26 but congestion remains intact.
Bitcoin just attacked its weekly LHR while retesting its Dec 9th high…“
Bitcoin & cryptos are preparing for a more dramatic decline to take hold after stock index Cycle Progressions peak in late-Jan ’26. Bitcoin fulfilled early-October sell signals and is preparing for a second plunge in Jan/Feb ’26 – potentially coinciding with NQ-100 analysis for a drop into Feb 2 – 9 (greatest synergy = Feb 5 – 9, ’26). Early-Feb ’26 is the next ‘Danger Zone’ – for both cryptos & tech stocks – based on a myriad of technical timing indicators.
Almost a year ago, in February ’25, INSIIDE Track highlighted an intriguing set of ‘eerie parallels’ that were/are expected to reach fruition in 2026 (likely in 1Q/2Q ’26) and would be validated by an initial plunge in crypto prices in 4Q 2025.
That would set the stage for a second drop surrounding late-Jan ‘26 – all leading into a unique monthly Cycle Progression low in 2Q ‘26. ~70K is the next (minimum) downside target… with two other targets well below that.
The initial plunge in Bitcoin was projected to be an omen of what would follow in 1Q ’26 (surrounding late-Jan ’26) – in line with stock index 2-Year & 4-Year Cycle Progressions. One of the keys involved Bitcoin cycles that were forecast to turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 – and accelerate lower in 1Q ’26 – as a ~4-year cycle goes through a major downward shift:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Why is Early-Feb ’26 Shaping Up as Critical ‘Danger Zone’ in Cryptos & Tech Stocks?
How Did Nov ‘25 Bitcoin & Stock Index Sell-offs Presage Jan/Feb. ’26 Sell-off?
Will ‘Eerie Parallels’ Emerge in Feb/March ’26… Right on Schedule?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.