Bitcoin Spike High (~48,000/BT Possible); Dollar Confirming Multi-Week Bottom.
01/03/24 – “January 2 – 4, 2024 marks the opening range of the month, as well as the opening days (though not the complete opening range) of the quarter and year. As such, there are certain expectations surrounding these opening days (see page 2 for a couple of those) and what occurs after them.
As repeatedly warned, many markets will start a new period with a ‘head fake’ during the opening range. In those cases, it is a false move to lure in unsuspecting traders… before a market heads the opposite direction. That opposite direction could last into mid-period (in this case, mid-January) or into the end of the period.
The key – in the case of a new intra-month trend – is to see whether a market gives a daily close above or below the trading range of the first three trading days. Since that is the established trigger point, it is not unusual that a false move would only last 2 – 4 days since a new intra-month trend signal cannot be generated until the 4th trading day of a new month… at the very earliest (since it needs to close above/below the first 3 trading days).
With the start of a new quarter and new year, the initial moves take on heightened significance. As a result, the next 2 – 3 trading days should be pivotal… one way or the other…
The Dollar Index has surged after setting its lowest daily close (since early-August) on December 27th & intraday low on December 28th, fulfilling the latest phase of its ~4-week cycle and the reinforcing ~24-week low-low-low-(low; Dec 26 – 29, ’23) Cycle Progression that projected a multi-week bottom.
That was also the second week after the Dollar Index tested and held its weekly HLS, an indicator that projected a multi-week low in late-December ‘23. The Dollar Index completed a 5-wave decline, which was likely to be followed by a rebound toward its 4th wave of lesser degree resistance near 103.75/DXH.
However, that 5-wave decline means that future declines are also likely, after this intervening bounce. Reinforcing that, the Dollar Index closed the month below its monthly 21 MAC… the first time it has done that since July/Aug ’21. On a 6 – 12-month and 1 – 2 year basis, that is a (confirming) negative signal.
Corroborating this shift, December ’23 began a sharp surge in the monthly 21 MARC, which is inversely correlated to the monthly 21 MAC. As a result, that 21 MAC will have a progressively easier time turning down in the coming months… another negative signal.
Bitcoin & Ether fulfilled projections for rallies into December 2023, the perpetuation of an ~8.5 – 9-month/ 36 – 38-week high-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
Coinciding with that, Bitcoin attacked its multi-month upside target – at ~45,000/BT while Ether tested and held its ultimate upside target near 2,450/ETH.”
Bitcoin & Ether have fulfilled analysis for major advances from their Nov ’22 lows (projected multi-year lows) into late-2023/early-2024. Bitcoin’s September buy signals projected a 1 – 2 month surge to ~35,000 (already fulfilled) and a larger 3 – 6 month advance to ~45,000+/BT (recently fulfilled), potentially spiking up to ~48,000/BT. Intermediate Dollar cycles bottomed on December 27/28th and could apply negative pressure to cryptos after a rebound is confirmed.
Since July, cryptos have been expected to work higher into (at least) December ’23 as the Dollar declines. That could be culminating at this time. Gold analysis corroborates with Gold surging to its multi-month upside target (~2152/GCG) and peaking during December 4th cycle peak – ushering in another multi-month consolidation phase.
Did Dollar Set Decisive Low in Late-December ‘23?
Are Bitcoin & Ether Validating a Pivotal Topping Process?
How Low Could Cryptos Correct… and the Dollar Rally… in January ‘24??
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.