Bitcoin & Cryptos Sell-off Nearing Aug 18 – 25 Cycle Low; Stocks & Dollar Concur!
08/12/23 – “The Dollar is rallying into daily & weekly cycles on Aug 14 – 25… as the Euro & Yen decline…
Stock Indices are slowly selling off after peaking and reversing lower in late-July/early-August ‘23, turning daily & intra-month trends down as a significant ‘danger period’ began. A vulnerable period extends into late-Aug ’23.
The DJIA spiked higher on Aug 1/2 – fulfilling a ~1.5-month low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and a series of ~3-month (90-degree) moves from successive highs on Nov 1/2, Feb 1 & May 1, ’23. (A future high would be expected in mid-Sept ’23.)
Coinciding with that peak, the Russell 2000 reached its 3 – 4 month upside targets (stemming from its March ’23 low) at 2000 – 2015/QRU. Along with other corroborating indicators, that is where the rising monthly 40 High MAC and declining monthly 21 High MAC converged (see Aug ’23 INSIIDE Track for additional analysis and illustrations).
This came after it rallied into late-July ’23 – the convergence and/or fulfillment of multiple timing indicators and cycles. It also initially fulfilled the monthly LHR indicator. Since then, the Russell 2000 has neutralized its weekly uptrend AND its intra-year uptrend – both signs that confirm a multi-week top. This initial decline could drop back to ~1840/QRU – where 1 – 2 month support exists.
For the past ~2.5 years, the Russell 2000 has set a multi-week, often multi-month, low every 21 – 22 weeks. That has occurred six straight times and could recur if the it sells off and sets a low between mid-Aug and early-Sept. That would also fulfill an ~11-month high-low-(low) Cycle Progression. The ideal time (greatest synergy) for that low would be on Aug 18 – 28, ’23. The NQ-100 has multiple daily cycles projecting a likely low around Aug 25/28, ’23…
Stock Indices experienced some additional selling with the potential for downside follow-through over the next 1 – 2 weeks…
The Dollar Index remains in a daily uptrend and has just neutralized its weekly downtrend, clarifying expectations surrounding daily & weekly cycles on Aug 14 – 25, ‘23. Those indicators project some additional upside and then an intermediate peak during these impending cycles. That is also in sync with the Dollar’s test of weekly LHR levels last week (2 of 3 at 102.55 – 102.58/DXU) – a harbinger of a 1 – 2 month peak in the ensuing 1 – 3 weeks.
The weekly trend cannot turn up until Aug 25, at the earliest, which corroborates the potential for a 1 – 2 month peak by then (since intermediate peaks are often set as a market is attempting to turn its weekly trend up… particularly when it fails to do so).
A peak in the coming weeks would fulfill 23 – 24 week & 11 – 12-week high-high-(high) Cycle Progressions, as well as an overriding 43 – 46-week low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, and set the stage for a new decline to follow… possibly stretching into xxx ‘xx.
The Euro is the inverse of the Dollar and neutralized its weekly uptrend during the second week after testing and holding its weekly HLS (1.0998/ECU). That pattern usually yields a 1 – 2 month low within the ensuing three weeks, so a low could be seen in the coming week.
A low in the coming week(s) would perpetuate multiple weekly cycles and likely spur a rally into early-Oct ’23 – the next phase of a ~12-week cycle…
Gold & Silver remain in multi-month consolidation phases between their late-Feb/early-March ’23 lows and the subsequent cycle highs set on May 3 – 5… Silver peaked in mid-July, fulfilling a ~3-month/~90-degree cycle from its mid-April & mid-Jan ’23 highs. Those highs were preceded by lows in mid-Oct & mid-July ’22… and a high in mid-April ’22… a consistent string of ~3-month turning points.
The mid-July ’23 high fulfilled a ~3-month/~90-degree low-low-high-high-(high) Cycle Progression and projects another high in mid-Oct ’23 (possibly diverging & preceding early-Nov highs in Gold). Other highs could be seen in the interim, with early-Sept ’23 representing the approximate midpoint of that ~3-month cycle.
In the midst of these cycle highs, Gold & Silver have corrected into the convergence of multiple cycle lows. The most prominent is a consistent 22 – 23-week high-high-high-high-low-low-(
(xxxx – xxxx is a prime time for an accelerated rally, due to key cycles and the weekly 21 MARC. It is even possible it begins in late-Aug.)
Gold & Silver remain in daily downtrends and turned their daily 21 MACs down to begin the week, at the same time Silver turned its intra-month trend down. That is poised to extend selling into the coming week and allow Gold to spike a little below its late-June ’23 low and fulfill the weekly cycles & Cycle Progressions bottoming on Aug 14 – 25, ’23.
The XAU & HUI set divergent lows with the HUI spiking below its late-June/early-July low as the XAU bottomed above its corresponding low. In doing so, the HUI has initially perpetuated its 22 – 23-week high (Nov 15-22, ’21) – high (Apr 18-25, ’22) – low (Sept 19-26, ‘22) – low (Feb 24-Mar 9, ’23) – (low; Aug 3 – 17, ’23) Cycle Progression.”
Bitcoin & Ether have sold off since fulfilling projections for a rally to new highs and a multi-month peak in mid-July (July 14 – 20), coinciding with a similar rally and peak in Gold & Silver (and XAU… and even Euro) and a corresponding decline and low in the US Dollar Index.
These markets (Bitcoin, Ether, Gold, Silver & Euro) have been expected to head lower into August 18 – 25, ’23, when the greatest synergy of cycles converge and portend the next 1 – 2 month (or longer) bottom, even as the Dollar Index should rally into that time frame.
The weekly trend pattern projects Ether to plunge below its mid-June ’23 low (~1,620/ETH) with Bitcoin dropping back toward, but ideally holding above, its mid-June ’23 low of ~24,800/BT… as they drop into August 15 – 22, ’23. The levels of those projected lows should clarify what to expect in Nov ’23 – the subsequent cycle low.
Is Bitcoin’s (& Cryptos’) 2023 Advance Complete?
How Low Will Next Correction Drop?
How Does Dollar/Gold/Crypto Analysis Reinforce Late-Aug ’23 Cycles?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.