Bitcoin & Stocks Focus on Nov 17 – 21st For Sharp Sell-offs! Eerie Parallels Abound.
10-30-25 – “Outlook 2025/2026 – Foreshadows… and 4-Shadows II
Every stock market plunge, of the past 50 years, has had its warning signs. They have not occurred in a vacuum with sudden stock selling coming out of nowhere. Even the early-2025 ‘Liberation Day’ related plummet was presaged months prior… and ultimately bottomed exactly when & where anticipated.
The key is to recognize and heed those warning signs.
The Golden Crystal Ball
Most fundamental events are also revealed by the technical action of related markets… days, weeks or sometimes months in advance. A perfect example just occurred with Jerome Powell’s post-rate-cut comments about another rate cut in December being ‘not a foregone conclusion’.
While seemingly innocuous, that mindset was a shock to the system to many traders that were certain the Fed would cut rates in 3 or 4 consecutive meetings (the 2nd of which was this past week).
However, Gold had already identified this shift with its cyclical & technical action. To recognize that, a trader must also recognize what has been conveyed in these publications for many years: The expectation of future interest rates is the most consistent correlation to Gold’s price movement…
…more than inflationary expectations…
…more than war or geopolitical conflict…
…even more than US Dollar action!
BTE, STR
During 2025, but most convincingly since mid-August ’25, traders have been convinced of multiple impending interest rate cuts – one of the biggest supports for the price of Gold.
As a result, Gold resumed its rally and surged into mid-October ’25 – the culmination of multi-week, multi-month & multi-year Cycle Progressions and the most likely time for a blow-off (3- 6 month) peak.
Not surprisingly, that coincided with the culmination of (semi-euphoric) expectations for repeated interest rate cuts. In mid-October – right on cyclic schedule – that began to change. (Those cuts may occur, but perception is what drives market action.)
And so, Gold reversed lower – precisely where extreme upside targets were met AND when timing indicators had predicted (since November 2024) a crucial 3 – 6 month peak to take hold.
That downward reversal revealed the attitude toward interest rates was more likely to shift (or already had started shifting) – even if only subtly.
How?
The current expectations of traders drive Gold and other markets – often by a few months and sometimes by as much as 3 – 6 months. If that is hard to perceive, ask yourself this:
If you knew – or felt VERY confident – that XYZ stock was going to be bought out for 3xs the current price, within the next few months, would you wait until that buyout to purchase some of XYZ stock?
If so, you’d be acting like a lot of impulsive, novice traders and you’re probably going to be disappointed (and VERY late to the party).
The problem is that all the savvy traders bought that stock weeks or months ago, watched its value steadily advance as more and more traders became aware of – or at least suspect of – that developing situation – and then they take profits (liquidate their stock) when the news hits the street and the Johnny-come-lately traders read their social media threads and impulsively pile in.
That is what led to the old adage ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News’. Or, another way to put it is:
‘Buy the Expectation, Sell the Realization!’
Since Nov ‘24, INSIIDE Track had been detailing why Gold should surge into Oct ‘25 and then set a 3 – 6 month peak. As Oct ’25 neared, weekly Cycle Progressions pinpointed Oct 13 – 20, ‘25 as the most likely time for that decisive top to take hold.
Extreme price projections converged near 4370/GCZ & 53.70/SIZ (see Oct 16, 2025 issue of The Bridge) and the Oct 18, ’25 issue of the Weekly Re-Lay reiterated that and explained why that time & those levels were the place where long-term traders should begin to lighten up on long positions.
Sure enough, Gold spiked above 4390/GC on Oct 20 & 21st – while rendering its highest daily close at 4359/GCZ on Oct 20th – and quickly plunged ~10% in a week. Once again, the markets and their related cycles revealed this shift before the fundamentals were known to the masses.
But there is another foreshadow in current focus.
Roaring ‘20s Redux?
2025/2026 has maintained the unique potential to see dual fulfilment of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Declines. The first began in late-’24 & early-’25 and was forecast to bottom in late-March/early-April ‘25 after a 25 – 30% plunge. That is history.
The second was/is expected to take hold in late-’25/early-’26 and lead to a significant drop into a potential major low in 2026. One of the potential triggers for that plunge was described in Feb ’25 and involved the risky bet that major tech companies were/are making on Bitcoin/cryptos.
That analysis (excerpted on page 4) was reiterated and elaborated in the March ‘25 INSIIDE Track:
2-27-25 – “2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin and the move toward decentralized banking.
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000…
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
However, this issue’s focus is … on a few eerie similarities between the 2020’s and two of the more notorious examples of speculative ‘over-zealousness’…
Déjà vu?
The 2020’s possess some eerie similarities to the 1920’s and the 1990’s. Of course, history never repeats… it only rhymes. No one should ever expect a carbon copy of what took place in the past.
In all three cases, specific sectors of the market became exorbitantly overvalued. And, in each case, there were derivatives created to keep the party going and allow the most inexperienced and uninformed ‘investors’ to jump in near the top – exacerbating the impact of the ensuing decline…
In late-2023/early-2024, the SEC approved the launch of multiple Bitcoin & Crypto ETFs. In the final months of 2024, the public dove in with reckless abandon… just in time for the top…
Those speculators were also invited/enticed into piling into other ‘shell’ investments (for lack of a better term) – like NFTs and meme coins. The Crypto Carnival was in full swing… The more things change, the more they stay the same!“ — End March ’25 INSIIDE Track excerpt
After sharp drops into April ’25, cryptos and many related stocks signaled a new rally into July ’25. However, the stock that is at the forefront of this ’shell’ analogy – MSTR – had signaled a major top in Nov ’24 and was portending a secondary (lower) peak for July ’25, as part of a major decline.
Its Nov ’24 surge to 543.0 completed a wave ’V’ advance and turned focus to the 4th wave of lesser degree support – the May & Aug ’24 lows near 100.0. If that ‘proxy stock’ drops to its 4WoLD support – fulfilling normal wave structure retracements – it would be shedding ~75 – 80% of its peak value
Could that have a domino effect?…
The S+P Midcap 400 is struggling to exceed its Sept ‘25 high – and just turned its daily trend down – so it could be warning of an intermediate correction to come.
The DJTA set a multi-month peak in late-July ’25 and has been slowly going through a topping process (setting a series of lower highs) as other indexes are setting equal highs or higher highs. However, it would not turn its weekly trend down and confirm a 3 – 6 month peak until a weekly close below 15,054/DJTA.
The DJTA did (slightly) turn the direction of its monthly 21 MAC down in October but needs a monthly close below 14,980/DJTA to provide a bearish monthly 21 MAC signal. The weekly 21 MAC is similar and has the best chance of turning negative in the second half of Nov ‘25.
If so, that could trigger a decline into a synergistic convergence of monthly Cycle Progressions, wave retracements, timing indicators and other cycles in Dec ’25. A low in Dec ’25 would fulfill:
- 8-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression
- 4-month low-low-(low) Cycle Progression
- ~2-month/~9-week high-high-low-low-low-low-(
low) Cycle Sequence - Back-to-back 19-week declines (if decline stretches into Dec 8 – 12, ’25)
- 50% retracement in time (26-month rally followed by 13-month decline
For now, stock indexes remain mixed with the DJIA, S+P 500 & NQ-100 in strong positions while the Midcap & DJTA are consolidating in what appear to be multi-month topping processes.
The weekly trend indicators are the key.
The broader outlook still anticipates another substantial decline in 2026 – potentially a second fulfillment of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Declines – but there need to be additional warning signs developing in the coming months.
One of those could occur with an accelerated decline in Bitcoin, following the lead of many other cryptos. While this might not be the textbook situation for a stock market correlation, there are two factors that could create a domino-effect of selling at some point in 2026 (maybe early 2026)
- Currently, 10 stocks account for over 40% of the gains in the overall market… similar to several equity peaks in the past decade. Most are tech/AI-oriented stocks.
- The new ‘Roaring ‘20’s’ have been characterized by exponentially-leveraged speculation on Bitcoin & other cryptos… with some of these tech/AI companies committing a significant portion of capital into cryptos (instead of their core business).
Once the snowball starts rolling down the hill (which might have already begun), it is hard to stop it. The question becomes ’How much pain will those companies be able to bear?’
Will declining crypto holdings begin to impact stock prices?
MSTR has already lost over 40% from its July ’25 peak and over 50% from its Nov ’24 peak. The intra-year lows, near 230, could represent the ’point of critical mass’ if broken. As a result, they are a key focal point for this potential scenario…
The Dollar Index remains in a multi-year downtrend but set a multi-month bottom in early-July and has since reinforced that low. The outlook for that overall rally continues to be for the Dollar Index to rally back to/above 101.00/DXZ and potentially test 102.00/DXZ.
The way in which it retested and held its July low, in Sept ’25, and the subsequent weekly trend & 21 MAC reversals have indicated this is a higher-magnitude bottom – greatly reducing the potential for any additional lows in 2025.
The Euro is tracing out an opposing ‘c’ wave decline that should make it to 1.1380/E6Z or lower. The Aug & Sept ’24 highs (resistance turned into support), a primary wave target (new decline equals Sept/Oct decline), and the monthly 21 High MAC are at ~1.1340 – 1.1360/E6Z and represent likely (initial) downside targets…
Bitcoin & Ether continue to correct after Bitcoin fulfilled its weekly trend & reached major upside targets (~122,000 – 127,000/BT) while perpetuating a ~4-Year Cycle Progression that peaks in 4Q ’25. More important, it continues to hold its July ’25 peak (despite spiking above it) – a cycle when major Bitcoin-related stock cycles (COIN, MSTR, etc.) set major peaks and turned decisively down.
Ether set a divergent peak in late-August – fulfilling its multi-year upside wave target and a precise 38-week low-high-high-(high: Aug 25 – 29, ’25) Cycle Progression.
Multiple cycles could extend the current decline into Nov 17 – 21, ‘25.
Bitcoin also has a trio of multi-day & multi-week Cycle Progressions coming into play in the middle half of November ‘25. Depending on the extent of an intervening sell-off (between now & then), that could time an initial, 1 – 2-month low.“
Bitcoin is corroborating early-October sell signals and reinforcing the likelihood for a sharp decline into Nov 17 – 21, ’25 that is likely to coincide with a plunge in stock indexes as well.
In February ’25, INSIIDE Track reiterated an intriguing set of parallels that should/would come into focus in 4Q 2025, when related cycles are projecting a major shift in many financial and currency-related markets… as well as stock indexes, interest rates and energy markets. That (now) is when the first big sell-off in Bitcoin is most likely… leading into the second half of November ’25.
One of the keys to this involved Bitcoin cycles that should turn dramatically lower in Nov/Dec ’25 as a ~4-year cycle reverses:
17-Year Cycle & 4-Shadow: 4Q 2025 Shifts
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin vs US Dollar
40-Year Cycle of Currency War: Bitcoin Peaking Process
Are Bitcoin & Crypto Stocks on Verge of Sharper Plunge?
What Do Bitcoin & Ether Sell Signals Portend for Coming Weeks?
Why is Seismic Shift Expected in 4Q 2025?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.