Bitcoin & Stocks Plunge in Lockstep with Bearish Cycles (into late-March/early-April ’25).
02/27/25 – “2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the last major decline in the stock market (not including the ~2-month Covid plunge of 1Q 2020).
2025 is a full 17-Year Cycle from the inception of Bitcoin and the move toward decentralized banking.
2025 is two full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the 1990’s bull market in stocks – a run-up that culminated with the dot-com bubble in the late-1990’s.
2025 is three full 17-Year Cycles from the start of the late-20th century bull market in stocks that began in 1974, had a major correction at its midpoint (1987), and peaked in early-2000.
2025 is 7 full 17-Year Cycles from the stock market peak of January 1906, which was followed by the Panic of 1907 and a ~2-year decline of 50% (which looks remarkably similar in magnitude & duration to the 1973/1974 ~50% crash).
All of that, and much more, reinforces the impact of the 17-Year Cycle – a cycle that is intimately connected to the magnetic swings in the Sun, Earth and the geomagnetic oscillations between the two.
However, this issue’s focus is not specifically on the recurring 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks (and Declines). Instead, it is focused on a few eerie similarities between the 2020’s and two of the more notorious examples of speculative ‘over-zealousness’ of the past century.
Déjà vu?
The 2020’s possess some eerie similarities to the 1920’s and the 1990’s. Of course, history never repeats… it only rhymes. No one should ever expect a carbon copy of what took place in the past.
In all three cases, specific sectors of the market became exorbitantly overvalued. And, in each case, there were derivatives created to keep the party going and allow the most inexperienced and uninformed ‘investors’ to jump in near the top – exacerbating the impact of the ensuing decline.
In the 1920’s, it was shell companies (modern day ‘funds’) that would purchase stocks (their only holding) and then issue shares. Once the prices of those shares (funds) were driven to unaffordable levels, new shell companies (funds of funds, so to speak) were created that would only purchase shares in the first level shell companies… and then issue their own shares.
In the 1990’s, there were many parallels connected to the dot-com craze. One was the emergence of ETFs & index funds. A prime example involves the QQQ, launched in March 1999… just in time for Joe Public to pile in to the dot-com craze and then watch its value plummet ~84% – from a peak of 120.50 in March 2000 to a low of 19.76 in Oct 2002… a plunge that many never recovered from.
In late-2023/early-2024, the SEC approved the launch of multiple Bitcoin & Crypto ETFs. In the final months of 2024, the public dove in with reckless abandon… just in time for the top.
Already, many of those ETFs (Ethereum-based ones) have lost over 45% of their value.
Those speculators were also invited/enticed into piling into other ‘shell’ investments (for lack of a better term) – like NFTs and meme coins. The Crypto Carnival was in full swing in late-2024 & peaked exactly when those speculators expected exponential gains to take hold in their accounts.
The more things change, the more they stay the same!
So, what now?
First of all, this does NOT imply that cryptos are not viable in the digital age. And, it does not imply they are going anywhere.
Tech companies (at least some) did not disappear after related stocks & indexes plummeted 80+% in 2000 – 2002. However, the weaker ones were ‘culled’ and a new wave of stronger & more resilient companies slowly took hold and began to build a base… over a period of many years.
However, it did take over 16 years – until Sept 2016 – for the Nasdaq-100 to exceed its March 2000 peak. The QQQ waited until December 2016 to do the same… almost 17 years to break-even!
For further reference, the entire rally from 2002 into 2007 – before another crash in those indexes & ETFs took hold – had the NQ-100 & QQQ rebounding less than 50% of their 2000 – 2002 declines… and peaking at ~40% of their 2000 peak values.
That’s just one example of how the markets deal with a bubble.
The good news is that every recovery, in recent decades, has been quicker than the one before. The bad news is that the ‘bursting’ is (likely) not yet complete. So, hold on tight…
Stock Indices are steadily confirming the peaks set in many indexes in November ’24. That fulfilled the latest phase of the 17-Year Cycle of Stock Market Peaks – setting multi-month highs in 4Q 2024 – that portends (at least) a 20 – 30% decline from those peaks…
The S+P Midcap 400 was the primary focus and was projected to spur an Oct/Nov ‘24 surge leading into a 3 – 6-month (or longer) peak on Nov 22/25, 2024.
That index precisely fulfilled that outlook and peaked on Nov 25th, along with the Russell 2000 & DJTA… and a myriad of related stocks.
The DJTA has gone through a textbook reversal sequence on many levels, including its weekly 21 MAC indicator. That index could easily drop back to ~13,500 (potentially in 2025), where secondary lows were set in March – October ‘23, fulfilling a ~25% decline.
If the S+P Midcap drops to ~2750/IDX in 2025, it would fulfill a ~20% decline while returning to a very consistent range parameter that has helped set a series of highs in 2022 & 2023 and then lows in 2024. Monthly HLS levels and the monthly 21 Low MAC & 21 High MARC show that could occur as soon as March/April 2025.
The NQ-100, which retested its high and fulfilled its weekly trend pattern, signaled a peak on February 18/19th and could see a multi-month drop to ~17,800/NQ – the point at which a 20% decline would reach fruition while retesting the lows set in August ‘24 – a type of ‘4th wave of lesser degree’ support (the low before a final, wave ‘5’ rally).
That is the primary downside wave target – following a major peak – and a level of 3 – 6 month & 6 – 12 month support.
The NQ-100 is another index where the monthly 21 Low MAC & monthly HLS levels identify March/April ‘25 as an ideal time for that target/support to be reached and a multi-month low to take hold.
4-Shadow
The NQ-100 rallying to a slight new high, and the S+P 500 retesting its high, were textbook fulfillments of the likely action after a 4-Shadow Indicator signal is triggered. The retest of those highs then projects a much larger decline than the preceding one (that triggered the 4-Shadow signal).
As described before, that indicator possesses parallels to the weekly trend indicator with three critical (similar) facets providing important portents:
- The most immediate portent is that both signals warn of an imminent (but only initial) low.
- The second, correlating similarity is that both signals project a reactive rally to follow.
- The third parallel is that both indicators warn of a future, more significant decline to take hold after that reactive rally has played out.
That decline could now be taking hold after the indexes rebounded from their January lows with the S+P 500 & NQ-100 retesting their highs and fulfilling that phase of the 4-Shadow Signal. Weekly closes below those January lows are needed to confirm the onset of the next phase.
Partially leading the way, the DJTA sold off in February, fulfilling intermediate cycles and setting the lowest daily close since October 3, 2024. It is poised to see another wave of selling in March that could extend (if key signals are triggered on March 7 – 14th) into early-April, the next phase of related 17 – 18-week high-high-high-(low?) and ~9-week high-high-(low?) Cycle Progressions.
Bigger Picture
On a 6 – 12 month (and intra-year) basis, the mid-January lows are now pivotal. It would take weekly closes below them to signal that a new 1 – 2 month (or longer) decline is unfolding (and to turn the intra-year trends down).
This overall decline – beginning in late-Nov in multiple indexes – is still expected to stretch into March/April ‘25 (potentially longer) – the convergence of multiple cycles & Cycle Progressions. That includes an 18/19-month low-low-(??) Cycle Progression, a 2-Year Cycle (DJIA peaked in late-Nov ’22 & sold off into March ’23) and an annual cycle that timed intra-year lows in 2020, 2023 & 2024.
Daily & weekly cycles are focused on late-March/ early-April as the ideal time for that low. That could be corroborated by an initial spike low on March 3 – 7th – when related daily cycles bottom.
6 – 12 month & 1 – 2 year traders and investors can lighten up on long positions…
Bitcoin & Ether are doing precisely what was forecast for 1Q 2025 – plunging first into early-Feb ’25 and then into early-March ’25…
1-05-25 – “Looking out into 2025, Bitcoin has the greatest synergy of intermediate cycle lows in early-Feb & early-March ‘25…”
1-11-25 – “Ultimately, Bitcoin could drop back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT.”
1-15-25 – “Ultimately, Bitcoin could drop back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT with Ether projecting a drop back toward ~2,200… into early-March ‘25.”
2-05-25 – “Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping after Bitcoin set its highest daily close on January 21st… a larger-magnitude wave ‘5’ peak…
Ether had peaked in December after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak – while completing a ~3-year low (4Q ’18) – high (4Q ’21) – (high; 4Q 2024) Cycle Progression. It has already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak… an overall decline into early-March ’25 is still expected”
2-08-25 – “Cryptos are fulfilling projections for sharp declines into early-February… Bitcoin & Ether are reinforcing signs of topping…
Ether peaked in Dec after retesting its March ’24 (secondary) peak… and already plunged back to its 2024 lows and remains weak as cryptos confirm ongoing analysis for a surge in 4Q 2024 followed by a drop in 1Q ‘25.”
An overall drop to 72,000 – 74,500/BT remains the outlook for Bitcoin. It is fulfilling the outlook for a spike below 80,000 but remains negative.”
Bitcoin is fulfilling projections for a sharp, late-February plunge in sync with multiple indicators & related sell signals in January & February. Bitcoin’s January high was a textbook multi-month peak, set in perfect sync with MAJOR upside price targets. That projected/projects an overall decline into early-March ’25 as the first phase of a bigger shift.
Ether (and other cryptos) peaked in December ’24 and projected similar sharp declines that are accelerating lower. In sync with related stock indexes, this could lead to a final sell-off into early-April ’25 – when powerful cycles bottom in these markets.
As part of that, Bitcoin is still projected to plunge back to 72,000 – 74,500/BT – where critical 3 – 6 month support aligns. That could coincide with ongoing projections for equity markets to plunge into late-March/early-April ’25 – when a multi-month bottom is most likely. The extent of crypto’s projected plunge should have a powerful impact on future cycle highs – in July & Nov/Dec ’25.
Bitcoin’s cycles peak again in late-July ’25 – the next phase of its uncanny 16-month Cycle Progression that has been repeatedly highlighted over the past couple years. See the November ’24 issue of The Bridge for additional analysis and illustrations of this 16-month cycle and its focus on July 2025… The Bridge – “Currency War: Rock, Paper, Scissors II”
How Far Could Cryptos Sink into March/April ’25 Cycle Lows?
How High Could They Subsequently Climb into July ’25 Cycle High?
What is Current Action Revealing for late-2025/early-2026?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.