Bitcoin & Stocks Preparing for Final Capitulating Sell-off into early-April ‘25.
03/26/25 – “The Natural Year
Spring has sprung and a new ‘year’ has begun. It is a time of seasonal and psychological change that dates back millennia. The vernal equinox has ushered in a new beginning that has climatological, emotional and market-related implications. The first part of that sets the stage for the ‘year’ that follows.
The reason has to do with what is described as the first ‘month’ of the Natural Year. It is the first ~30-day period following the vernal equinox… and holds great significance for the ensuing ~11 months of that Natural Year (until vernal equinox 2026).
Opening Range
For those that view the calendar from a ‘natural’ standpoint (as most agricultural-based societies do), this period kicks off the 1st month of the Natural Year in the N. Hemisphere – beginning with the vernal equinox (March 19/20, ‘25).
However, it is often the end of that ‘month’ that is most important… for multiple reasons. Before getting to that, it is just as important to recognize what has reached fruition in the weeks leading into March 19th.
In the case of the markets, many key complexes set initial culminations last week – the final week of the final month of Natural Year 2024/25. Most stock indexes set their lowest lows of 2025… and lowest lows in over six months in the past ~2 weeks. The Dollar Index was similar as Gold, the Euro & other currencies set inversely-opposing highs last week.
A New Shift
All of that action set the stage for NY 2025/26 and is likely to have an impact on what unfolds in the coming months.
For now, the focus is on the next 2 – 4 weeks – leading into April 19th – the Date of Aggression and the completion of the first month (‘opening range’) of the new Natural Year. That is a critical factor in determining the ensuing intra-year trend.
Why?
The Sun governs our seasons, which are measured by the solstices and equinoxes. It also has a dramatic impact on our overall lives, not to mention the influence of something like the Sunspot Cycle (which has had a dramatic impact on events in and out of the markets since Solar Cycle 25 began – in precise sync with Covid-19 – in Dec 2019).
This has been true in farming/ag-based societies for thousands of years. It has been true in civilizations that worshipped the Sun and established their calendars based on that focus – much of which is still prevalent in our modern-day calendar.
As such, the vernal equinox starts the clock on the ‘opening range’ of each Natural Year.
It is when the northern half of the earth transitions from seasonal ‘death’ to ‘life’. In the old days, it was also when ‘kings went off to war’ (coming back to life just in time to go perpetrate death).
March 2022 was another prime example as the ‘king’ in Russia went off to war to conquer his neighbor in Ukraine. Just as that first month of NY 2022/23 ushered in that war, it will be interesting to see what the first month of NY 2025/26 reveals.
From a trading standpoint, the action in that first 30 days represents a type of ‘opening range’ that would influence the trading of the rest of the Natural Year.
Emphasis on the Natural Year was more significant 100 years ago since the commodity markets were almost all agricultural. And this first month was pivotal. Mid-April was the time when ‘carry-over stocks’ were at their lowest and when planting conditions and expectations for the new crop year – or growing season – were becoming apparent.
But it is not just trading that is impacted…
This period – usually from March 20 to April 19/ 20th – marks a very important transition period linked to various means of measuring time with physical (natural), celestial (astronomy), metaphysical (astrology) and supernatural (Jewish & Christian commemorations) implications and influences.
It is an annual time to watch for signs of ‘change’ on many levels.
In many ways, April 19/20th acts like a deadline for determining what to expect in the coming (Natural) year. More on that to follow.
Stock Indices initially bottomed on March 12/13th in sync with daily & weekly cycle lows while attacking and holding pivotal multi-month downside objectives and extreme weekly downside targets. They could still see lower lows in April but were expected to extend their rebounds into the current week.
That is when a ~17-week/~4-month high-high-high-(high; Mar 24 – 28) Cycle Progression and the midpoint of an over-over-arching ~35-week/~8-month high-high-high-(high; Nov 25 – 29, ‘24) Cycle Progression (next phase is in late-July ’25 and could time a future low) culminate…
Bitcoin & Ether continue to rebound (after fulfilling analysis for sharp sell-offs into early-March) with Bitcoin still likely to reach 90,000 – 91,800/BTC (possibly spiking up to ~92,800/BT). If Bitcoin peaks at or below 93,000/BT, it should see a new drop to 72 – 74,000 in the ensuing weeks.”
Bitcoin fulfilled projections for a sharp plunge into early-March but is still expected to attack ~74,500/BT before a multi-month bottom becomes more likely. In sync with related stock indexes, this could lead to a final sell-off into early-April ’25 – when powerful cycles bottom in equities.
Stocks & cryptos are setting the stage for a decisive low to be set during the first month of the new Natural Year – between March 20 – April 19, ’25 – if a final capitulating sell-off is seen in equities leading into early-April ’25. In contrast, Bitcoin has been holding pivotal support but could provide a final quick spike low in the coming weeks.
That would then turn the focus to future cycle highs – in July & Nov/Dec ’25. Bitcoin’s cycles peak again in late-July ’25 – the next phase of its uncanny 16-month Cycle Progression that has been repeatedly highlighted over the past couple years. It is also the next phase of corroborating ~6-month & ~11-month Cycle Progressions.
See the November ’24 issue of The Bridge for additional analysis and illustrations of this 16-month cycle and its focus on July 2025…The Bridge – “Currency War: Rock, Paper, Scissors II”
When Will Bitcoin Likely Attack ~74.500/BT (and Bottom)?
How High Could Cryptos Subsequently Climb into July ’25 Cycle High?
What Impact Should Early-April Stock Market Cycle Lows Have?
Refer to latest Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications for additional details and/or related trading strategies.